Commodity prices reflect slowdown in global growth

QNB Group stated in its weekly commentary that after a turbulent first half of 2025, which saw a sharp rise in uncertainty over US tariffs following the sweeping trade measures launched by US President Donald Trump under the name “Liberation Day,” the global economy has begun to adapt to a more restrictive trade environment, making economists and investors more cautious.

The group explained that commodity prices provide clearer signals about global demand, inflationary pressures, and investor confidence compared to incomplete trade negotiations. Historically, commodity prices have been regarded as a reliable real-time indicator of economic growth trends. Their recent movements suggest more moderate growth expectations along with declining risks of runaway inflation.

According to the report, there are three main factors supporting this trend:

1- Stability in commodity indexes: Levels have remained well below their cyclical peak of May 2022 and have moved within a narrow range since the start of 2025. This reflects the absence of signs of either excessive nominal growth acceleration or a sharp slowdown leading to recession. The decline in volatility of key commodity prices (such as energy and industrial metals) also reinforces the disinflationary path despite the sharp drop in the US dollar and the short-term inflation risks from the new tariffs.

2- Copper-to-gold ratio: This measure, often used to gauge expectations for growth, inflation, and risk appetite, continues to decline. If markets were betting on a pro-growth and pro-inflation agenda under Trump, copper—as a growth-sensitive asset—would have outperformed gold as a safe haven. Instead, the current trend reflects a more cautious stance consistent with moderate slowdown and stable inflation expectations.

3- Strength of gold prices: Gold is currently trading near record levels at around $3,330 per ounce, up about 80% since the 2022 commodity peak. This is largely due to rising geopolitical risks and investor preference for politically neutral assets. Silver—used both as a monetary and industrial asset—had lagged behind gold until recently, but has begun rising, signaling that industrial demand may have bottomed out.

Overall, QNB sees commodity markets sending a reassuring signal: a moderate slowdown in global growth with continued disinflation, amounting to a kind of soft landing for the world economy amid turbulent political conditions.