US dollar steadies before busy week with events and Fed speeches

The dollar rose against the euro and the British pound on Monday, ahead of an expected meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian and European counterparts, while attention also turned to the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium, in search of signals on monetary policy.

The euro fell by 0.2% against the dollar, recording 1.1683 dollars, while the British pound declined 0.1% to 1.3546 dollars.

The reduction of bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next month helped support the US currency, amid relatively limited moves in the foreign exchange markets on Monday. Money markets are now pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point next month, after traders reduced their bets on the certainty of a new cut, following data that included a jump in US wholesale prices last month and a strong increase in retail sales for July.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook and the monetary policy framework at the Jackson Hole symposium, scheduled between August 21 and 23.

Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank, said the US central bank is likely to cut rates in September as well, but it is unlikely that the Fed chairman will give a clear signal toward that this week. He added: “It is probably still too early for them (the Fed) to have full confidence in the possibility of cutting rates again.”

The most prominent event for investors on Monday was the White House meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, with the participation of some European leaders, while Washington pressed Kyiv to accept a quick peace deal to end the bloodiest war in Europe in 80 years.

Trump had met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Friday, and they agreed on the need to work on a peace agreement without reaching a ceasefire.

Analysts at ING Bank said in a research note that “financial markets are still trading as if there is – an undefined path yet – that may lead to peace.” The note added: “With the rise of high-risk assets and the decline in energy prices, we expect the dollar to remain under slight pressure, with dollar-dependent investors continuing to pump money.”

A senior official in Trump’s foreign policy team indicated on Sunday that the president may offer Ukraine protection similar to that provided by NATO, while Russia is open to this idea.

In other currency markets, the dollar rose by 0.1% against the Japanese yen, recording 147.38, while the Swiss franc fell 0.1% to 0.8069.

The Japanese government had ignored on Friday rare and candid remarks from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said that the Bank of Japan is “behind the curve” in its policies, in a statement considered pressure on the Japanese central bank to raise interest rates.

As for the Australian dollar, it rose 0.1% to 0.6515 dollars, while the New Zealand dollar climbed 0.3% to 0.5941 dollars after it had fallen 0.5% last week.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin halted its strong rally and retreated from a record level, as it fell by 2% to trade at 115,362.46 dollars. Similarly, Ether dropped by 4.3% to 4,275.85 dollars, after touching last week its highest levels in about four years.