Oil prices rebound as Middle East supply risks offset rising OPEC+ production

Oil prices recovered on Thursday, November 12, reversing earlier losses as renewed concerns about Middle Eastern supply disruptions countered expectations of increased production and progress toward diplomatic agreements involving Iran and Ukraine.

The recovery followed a volatile session in which both benchmarks initially declined by more than $1 per barrel before geopolitical developments brought buyers back into the market.

Price overview

As of 15:15 GMT, brent crude futures traded near $93.40 per barrel, gaining approximately 0.70%, after recovering from earlier losses.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures traded around $86.54 per barrel, showing little change on the day after an earlier decline.

Both benchmarks remained on course for weekly losses despite the recovery.

Middle East tensions support prices

Oil prices recovered as uncertainty surrounding negotiations between Washington and Tehran continued to raise concerns about regional supplies.

President Donald Trump indicated that the United States did not need an agreement with Iran, reducing expectations of an imminent diplomatic breakthrough.

Meanwhile, Iran's Revolutionary Guards reported that two supertankers had been disabled by naval mines after using an unauthorized route.

Continued threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reinforced concerns about disruptions to one of the world's most important energy transportation routes.

Rising production limits gains

The recovery remained constrained by increased OPEC+ production, particularly from Saudi Arabia, as producers continued restoring output.

The prospect of additional supplies entering the market has reduced some of the geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices.

Meanwhile, negotiations concerning the conflict in Ukraine introduced further uncertainty about future Russian energy exports.

Market outlook

Brent faces immediate resistance near $94, followed by $95, while support stands around $92.

WTI could encounter resistance near $87, with initial support around $85.20.

Investors are also awaiting US crude inventory figures for further indications of domestic supply conditions.

Further price movements will depend largely on developments involving Iran, shipping security and the pace of global production recovery.