Introduction

Oil remains a cornerstone of the global economy and continues to be subject to significant volatility due to economic and geopolitical factors. This report aims to review the current oil price, reserves of producing countries, production and trade activity, and oil price forecasts for 2025.

Current Price

As of June 2025, Brent crude is priced at approximately $70 per barrel, experiencing slight fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Prices have recently surged on fears of escalation between Iran and Israel but remain within the $65–75 range, influenced by global oversupply and increased production from countries like Saudi Arabia.

Reserves of Producing Countries

Owning massive oil reserves strengthens the global market influence of producing countries. According to OPEC, Venezuela holds the largest reserves at 303.8 billion barrels, followed by Saudi Arabia with 258.6 billion barrels, Iran with 208.6 billion barrels, Iraq with 145.0 billion barrels, and the UAE with 113.0 billion barrels. In Q1 2025, global oil production rose to 104.9 million barrels per day, up by 1.8 million barrels per day, driven by increased output from OPEC+ nations, especially Saudi Arabia.

Production and Trade Activity

OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to cut production by 1.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2025 to support price stability. However, Saudi Arabia has announced plans to raise output, potentially exerting downward pressure on prices due to surplus. Russian exports have been affected by Western sanctions, reducing its market share, while countries like the UAE and Qatar have boosted foreign investments supported by financial surpluses. Non-compliance with output quotas by some OPEC+ members adds to market volatility.

Oil Movement Amid Wars

Geopolitical conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war and unrest in the Middle East, significantly affect oil prices. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, ongoing since 2022, triggered sanctions that limited Russian oil exports and pressured global supply. In the Middle East, current tensions like the Gaza conflict and escalating friction between Iran and Israel have caused temporary price spikes due to supply disruption fears. These conflicts heighten uncertainty, prompting markets to monitor geopolitical developments closely.

Oil Price Forecast 2025

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Forecasts Brent crude will average $75 per barrel in Q3 2025, potentially declining to $68 in 2026 due to rising global supply.
• National Bank of Kuwait: Projects an average of $70 per barrel in 2025, noting that prices will remain relatively low due to supply surplus.
• Citi Bank: Raised its oil forecast for 2025 due to geopolitical risks, particularly involving Russia and Iran. However, it warns of possible price drops if tensions ease.
• Global Economics Unit: Expects Brent to average $80.8 per barrel in 2025, supported by a stronger dollar and increased emerging market demand, while warning that supply surplus may cap price gains.

Economic and Geopolitical Factors

1. Inflation and U.S. Dollar Strength: A stronger dollar pressures oil prices, while rising demand in emerging markets offsets it.
2. Geopolitical tensions: Supply disruption fears drive price spikes.
3. OPEC+ policies: Decisions to increase or cut production directly impact price stability.

Conclusion

In 2025, oil remains a strategic commodity influenced by supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical developments. With a current price around $70 per barrel and forecasts ranging from $60 to $80.8, oil is highly sensitive to global events. Geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions offer temporary price support, but increasing output from OPEC+ may limit gains. It is recommended to follow geopolitical updates and OPEC+ strategies to better understand market direction.

Gold Analysis 2025: Price, Forecasts, and War Impact

Gold retains its special status as a safe haven amid economic and geopolitical tensions. In this report, we review the current gold price, central bank reserves, buying and selling activity, and gold price forecasts for 2025. We also explore gold's behavior amid current conflicts and wars.

Current Price and Fabrication Costs

The price of gold has risen by 4.7% over the past month and by 44.83% compared to the previous year. This surge reflects increased demand from both individuals and central banks using gold to preserve asset value during recent periods of instability.

Central Bank Reserves

Central banks currently hold large quantities of gold, reinforcing its role as a strategic asset. According to the World Gold Council, the United States leads with 8,133.5 tons, followed by Germany with 3,417 tons and the International Monetary Fund with 3,217 tons.

In Q1 2025, central banks bought a net 244 tons, with notable purchases from Poland, reflecting a strategy to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar amid geopolitical tensions.

Buying and Selling Activity

Central banks have consistently purchased gold since 2010, acquiring over 1,000 tons annually in recent years. In 2025, global reserves are expected to grow by 95%.

Meanwhile, gold sales have been limited: Russia sold 3 tons, Uzbekistan 15 tons, and Kyrgyzstan only 2 tons in Q1 2025.

Gold Movements Amid Ongoing Conflicts

Wars and geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and turmoil in the Middle East, support rising gold prices. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, active since 2022, has increased demand for gold as a result of Western sanctions on Moscow, prompting central banks—especially in emerging markets—to boost reserves to safeguard their assets.

In the Middle East, tensions such as the war in Gaza and escalation between Iran and Israel enhance gold’s appeal as a safe haven. These conflicts create regional instability, encouraging both individuals and banks to invest in gold as a wealth protection measure.

Gold Price Forecast for 2025

The outlook is positive, driven by strong demand and geopolitical tension. Below are predictions from financial institutions:

• J.P. Morgan: Predicts an average price of $3,675/oz in Q4 2025, with potential to reach $4,000 by mid-2026.
• Goldman Sachs: Forecasts $3,700/oz by the end of 2025, possibly hitting $3,880 in case of a recession.

These forecasts are supported by expectations of a weaker dollar due to accommodative monetary policies, combined with strong central bank demand seeking to diversify away from the dollar.

Three Key Drivers Supporting Gold:

1. Inflation: Rising consumer prices make gold an effective hedge against loss of purchasing power.
2. Diversification Away from the Dollar: Central banks are increasing reserves to reduce dollar reliance amid sanctions risk.
3. Geopolitical Tensions: Conflicts like Russia-Ukraine and Middle East escalation boost demand for gold as a safe haven.

Conclusion

In summary, gold remains an attractive investment in 2025 with a current price of approximately $3,373.65/oz and forecasts reaching $4,000 by year-end. Central bank purchases, combined with conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East unrest, support demand. Inflation and sanctions fears also reinforce gold’s role as a strategic asset.

Follow daily gold analysis on Economies.com for broader insights into price trends.

Top AI Stocks for 2025

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become the driving force behind modern changes in the financial markets. In 2025, it's one of the most attractive sectors for investors. In this article, we highlight the top three AI stocks: NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Amazon, and explore why investors are focusing on them.

1. NVIDIA

History

NVIDIA was founded in 1993 by Jensen Huang and partners, initially focusing on graphics processing units (GPUs) for gaming. In 2006, it launched the CUDA platform, revolutionizing parallel computing—including training AI models. By 2025, NVIDIA controls around 87% of the GPU market used in AI, thanks to products like the H100 and Blackwell chips, the top choice for companies like OpenAI and Google.

Despite growing competition from Chinese AI models such as DeepSeek R1, NVIDIA remains the industry leader.

Fundamental Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.517 trillion (June 2025)
• P/E Ratio: Historical 46.59, Forward 33.63
• 5-Year PEG: 1.36
• Price-to-Sales: 23.93
• Price-to-Book: 42.18

Technical Analysis

The stock trades in a sideways range on the weekly timeframe between $153 and $87.9. It bounced strongly from the $87 weekly support, but with RSI overbought, a correction is expected.

Best Buy Zones: $140 - $134 - $129ش

2. Microsoft

History

Microsoft was founded in 1975 by Bill Gates and Paul Allen. It entered AI in the 1990s through Microsoft Research. The company launched Cortana in 2014, then integrated AI into services like Azure, Office 365, and Teams. Its partnership with OpenAI has solidified its leadership in cloud-based AI.

Fundamental Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.547 trillion (June 2025)
• P/E Ratio: Historical 37.03, Forward 31.95
• PEG: 2.25
• Profit Margin: 36.86%
• Annual Revenue: $280.26 billion
• Free Cash Flow: $54.82 billion

Technical Analysis

The stock recently broke out of a sideways range on the daily timeframe between $468 resistance and $348.5 support. With strong RSI momentum, it is expected to continue rising toward $516.

Best Buy Zones: $486 and $456

3. Amazon

History

Amazon was founded in 1994 by Jeff Bezos as an online bookstore, quickly evolving into "the everything store." It began using AI in 1998 in its recommendation engine, which generates around 35% of its revenue. Through AWS, Amazon offers AI services like SageMaker and uses AI in logistics and its voice assistant Alexa.

By 2025, Amazon has integrated AI across all operations, cementing its role as a leading tech powerhouse.

Fundamental Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.29 trillion
• P/E Ratio: Historical 35.20, Forward 33.44
• PEG: 2.39
• Annual Revenue: $650.31 billion
• Profit Margin: 10.14%
• Free Cash Flow: $39.27 billion

Technical Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, the stock is trading in a sideways range between $241.93 resistance and $161.91 support. A harmonic AB=CD pattern may complete near the PRZ area close to resistance, followed by a potential RSI correction toward 50 before resuming the uptrend.

Best Buy Zones: $204.5 and $196.8

Introduction to Stock Trading

Stock trading is one of the most exciting financial activities in the world of investing, whether you're a beginner or a professional. Whether you're looking to understand the basics or explore advanced strategies, understanding stock market dynamics and developing your skills is the first step toward success. This article will serve as your comprehensive guide to the stock market.

What is Stock Trading?

Stock trading is the process of buying and selling shares of publicly listed companies with the aim of profiting from price fluctuations. You can track stock prices and market news on our website.

Types of Stock Trading

1. Day Trading: Buying and selling stocks on the same day to take advantage of small price movements. This requires fast decision-making.
2. Swing Trading: Aims to benefit from price movements over days or weeks.
3. Long-Term Investing: Buying strong company stocks and holding them for years for capital growth and dividends.
4. News-Based Trading: Reacting to economic events or company and market news.

Why is Stock Trading Attractive?

• Flexibility: You can trade with small or large amounts based on your budget.
• Diversification: Exchanges offer a wide variety of companies across sectors.
• Liquidity: Stocks are easy to buy and sell in active markets.
• High Return Potential: Despite risks, trading can generate high profits when done correctly.

Stock Trading Basics

1. Open a trading account with a trusted broker.
2. Learn market analysis: Understand technical analysis and fundamental analysis.
3. Set a clear trading plan with short- and long-term goals.
4. Manage risk wisely using stop-loss orders and never risk more than 2% of your capital on a single trade.

Stock Trading Strategies

1. Technical Analysis

Visit our technical analysis section to understand trends using:

• Moving Averages
• Relative Strength Index (RSI)
• Support and Resistance Levels

2. Fundamental Analysis

• Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)
• Company revenue and profits
• Dividend payouts

3. Harmonic Trading

A method that uses patterns like "Gartley" and "Crab" with Fibonacci ratios to identify reversal points.

4. Smart Money Concepts (SMC)

• Supply and Demand Zones
• Break of Structure (BOS)
• Liquidity Analysis

Risk Management in Stock Trading

• Never risk more than 1–2% of your capital per trade.
• Use stop-loss orders to protect your account.
• Diversify your portfolio—don’t put all funds in one stock.
• Avoid emotional decisions under pressure.

Tips for Beginner Stock Traders

1. Start with a demo account to experience the market without risk.
2. Invest in education: Courses, books, and follow experts.
3. Stay updated with economic news that impacts the market.
4. Be patient—don’t expect quick profits.

Challenges in Stock Trading

• High market volatility.
• Sudden losses due to poor decisions.
• Constant psychological pressure from daily price movements.