The Japanese yen rose in Asian trading on Tuesday against a basket of major and minor currencies, resuming gains that were briefly paused yesterday against the US dollar, and moving back close to a two-week high, amid optimism about the economic policies of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, which are not expected to rely on excessive fiscal stimulus.

With expectations fading for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at its March meeting, investors are awaiting further indicators and signals that could strengthen the case for monetary tightening at the April meeting, with particular focus on inflation, wages, and movements in the local currency.

Price Overview

• Japanese yen exchange rate today: The dollar fell against the yen by 0.35% to ¥152.99, from an opening level of ¥153.51, and recorded a high of ¥153.75.

• The yen ended Monday down by 0.6% against the dollar, marking its first daily loss in six days, within correction and profit-taking moves from a two-week high at ¥152.27.

• Aside from profit-taking sales, the yen weakened after data showed Japan’s economic growth in the final quarter of last year came in below expectations.

Takaichi’s policies

A meeting between Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda concluded with an implicit agreement balancing central bank independence with the new economic policies. Both sides stressed the importance of close coordination to achieve demand-driven sustainable growth while avoiding sharp volatility in the foreign exchange market.

Although Ueda maintained the bank’s right to adjust monetary policy based on incoming data, the tone of the meeting leaned toward patience, signaling to markets that the Bank of Japan may not rush to raise rates before confirming the effectiveness of the government’s fiscal stimulus plans, supporting the stability of the so-called “Takaichi trade” in the short term.

Takaichi presented details of her “smart stimulus” fiscal plan, explaining that it is based on disciplined calculations and is not aimed at driving uncontrolled inflation, but rather at strengthening economic growth. The presentation appeared aimed at easing Ueda’s concerns about public debt sustainability.

Japanese interest rates

• Market pricing for a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the March meeting is currently below 10%.

• Market pricing for a 25 basis point rate hike at the April meeting is currently around 50%.

• To reprice these probabilities, investors are awaiting further data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.

Oil prices rose by about 1% in Monday trading, as investors assessed the implications of upcoming talks between the United States and Iran aimed at de-escalation, amid expectations of higher supply from the OPEC+ alliance.

Brent crude futures rose by $0.90, or 1.33%, to settle at $68.65 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to $63.75 per barrel, up $0.86, or 1.37%, as of 2:14 pm Eastern Time (19:14 GMT). There was no official settlement price for the US contract on Monday due to the Presidents’ Day holiday.

Both benchmark crudes posted weekly losses last week, with Brent down about 0.5% and WTI losing 1%, after US President Donald Trump said Washington could reach an agreement with Tehran within the next month.

The United States and Iran are scheduled to hold a second round of talks in Geneva on Tuesday to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. Ahead of those talks, Iran’s foreign minister met on Monday with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN body responsible for monitoring nuclear activities.

According to reports citing an Iranian diplomat, Tehran is seeking a nuclear deal with Washington that delivers economic gains for both sides, with discussions covering energy and mining investments as well as aircraft purchases.

On the other hand, US officials told Reuters that the United States is preparing for the possibility of a sustained military campaign if the talks fail, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned that any strikes on Iranian territory could trigger retaliation against US military bases.

While geopolitical tensions are supporting prices, OPEC+ is acting as a counterweight, as the alliance is inclined at its March 1 meeting to resume production increases starting in April after a three-month pause.

Prices also found support from continued strength in China’s crude imports and some disruptions to oil exports, according to Giovanni Staunovo, oil analyst at UBS.

Shipping data and trader estimates showed that China’s imports of Russian oil are set to rise for a third straight month in February to a new record, after India reduced its purchases under US pressure.

Bitcoin fell on Monday, extending its losses after crypto markets recorded four consecutive weeks of sharp declines, as uncertainty over interest rates continued to fuel aversion toward high-risk assets.

As of 05:55 ET (10:55 GMT), Bitcoin was down 2.2% at $68,875.0, after the world’s most popular cryptocurrency retreated following a brief weekend rebound that touched the $70,000 level.

Strategist: No Liquidation Risk Even if Bitcoin Falls to $8,000

Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) — the world’s largest institutional holder of Bitcoin — said on Sunday it can meet its debt obligations even if Bitcoin drops to $8,000 per coin.

The company said in a social media post that it can “withstand a BTC price decline to $8,000 while still holding sufficient assets to fully cover our liabilities.”

The company holds 714,644 Bitcoin, having financed its purchases through a mix of new equity issuance and long-term debt financing.

Strategy, led by prominent Bitcoin supporter Michael Saylor, has also continued buying more coins in recent weeks, despite the ongoing loss of momentum in the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin has now erased about 50% of its value since recording a record high near $126,000 in October. The token has led losses among speculative assets as uncertainty over the path of US interest rates pushed traders away from higher-risk investments.

The prolonged decline in Bitcoin has also raised concerns that Strategy could be forced to liquidate part of its holdings to meet debt obligations, although Saylor has repeatedly downplayed those risks.

Strategy reported in early February a loss of $12.4 billion for the December quarter, compared with a loss of $670.8 million in the same period of 2024. Apart from its large Bitcoin holdings, the company’s operating revenues remain limited.

Crypto Prices Today: Altcoins Follow Bitcoin Lower

Broader cryptocurrency prices also declined on Monday, tracking Bitcoin’s continued losses.

Ether, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 3.9% to $1,982.03.

XRP dropped 5.9% to $1.4919.

BNB declined about 2%.

Solana and Cardano fell 4.2% and 3.4% respectively.

Among meme tokens, Dogecoin slid 9.5%, while TRUMP coin fell 1.1%.

Sentiment toward the crypto market has remained weak since October, with a sharp slowdown in both retail and institutional investment inflows. The strong rally in gold prices — amid a speculative surge in precious metals — has also largely overshadowed Bitcoin, as investors rotate toward tangible assets.

Oil prices moved within a narrow range on Monday as investors assessed the implications of upcoming US–Iran talks aimed at de-escalation, against expectations of increased supply from the OPEC+ alliance.

Brent crude futures rose 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $67.86 per barrel as of 13:17 GMT.

US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to $62.99 per barrel, up 10 cents. The contract will not see a settlement on Monday due to the Presidents’ Day holiday in the United States.

Trading is also expected to remain subdued with markets closed in China, South Korea, and Taiwan for Lunar New Year holidays.

Previous Weekly Declines Driven by De-escalation Hopes

Benchmark contracts posted weekly losses last week, with Brent ending down about 0.5% and West Texas Intermediate losing 1%, after US President Donald Trump said Washington could reach an agreement with Tehran within the next month.

The two countries are scheduled to hold a second round of talks in Geneva on Tuesday regarding Iran’s nuclear program.

Ahead of those talks with Washington — mediated by Oman — Iran’s foreign minister met with the head of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency.

Tehran Seeks Economic–Nuclear Deal

Reports citing an Iranian diplomat said Tehran is seeking a nuclear agreement with the United States that delivers economic gains for both sides, with proposed investments in the energy and mining sectors and aircraft purchase deals included in discussions.

On the other side, the US is preparing for the possibility of a sustained military campaign if talks fail, according to US officials speaking to Reuters.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned that if Iranian territory is struck, it could respond by targeting any US military base.

Price Scenarios Between $60 and $80

SEB analysts said in a note: “An escalation with Iran could push Brent to $80 per barrel, while easing tensions could bring it back to $60.”

While US–Iran tensions support prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — known as OPEC+ — are capping the upward momentum, as the group is inclined to resume production increases from April at its March 1 meeting after a three-month pause, according to Reuters.

Shifts in Russian Oil Flows to Asia

Meanwhile, China’s imports of Russian oil are expected to rise for the third consecutive month to a new record in February, after India reduced its purchases under US pressure, according to traders and shipment-tracking data.