The Japanese yen rose in Asian trade on Monday against a basket of major rivals, recovering from a week low against the dollar on haven demand ahead of a new round of trade talks between the US and China.

Recent Tokyo data showed the Japanese GDP grew better than expected in the first quarter of the year, bolstering the odds of an interest rate hike in June.

The Price

The USD/JPY price fell 0.3% today to 144.34, with a session-high at 144.95.

The yen lost 0.9% against the dollar on Friday, plumbing a week low at 145.09 following strong US payrolls data.

The yen also lost 0.55% overall last week against the dollar, the second weekly loss in A row.

London Trade Talks

Later today in London, The US and China will conduct new trade talks following the crucial Trump-Xi trade talk last week, which helped accelerate the momentum of negotiations between both sides.

Japan’s GDP

Japan’s GDP was unchanged in the first quarter of the year, beating estimates of a 0.2% contraction.

Following the data, the odds of a Bank of Japan 0.25% interest rate hike in June rose from 40% to 45%.

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said the bank will continue to raise interest rates if the economy recovers from the negative impact of US tariffs, however he still cautioned that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain.

Now traders await more Japanese data on inflation, unemployment, and wages to gather additional clues.

Gold prices fell on Friday following the monthly payrolls report which was mostly solid.

The US economy added 139 thousand new jobs in May, down slightly from 147 thousand in April, while analysts expected the addition of 125 thousand. 

The data reduced the odds of a Fed rate cut soon, especially as unemployment stabilized at 4.2%.

Gold prices were pressured this week after a Trump-Xi meeting that ended with both agreeing to resume negotiations. 

Otherwise, the dollar index rose 0.5% as of 21:07 GMT to 99.1, with a session-high at 99.3, and a low at 98.6.

On trading, gold futures due in August fell 0.8%, or $28.5 to $3346 an ounce, while still marking a 1% weekly gain.

Oil prices fell on Friday but are still on track for the first weekly profit in three weeks, after US President Donald Trump talked to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping this week, reinforcing hopes of a resumption to trade talks. 

Brent futures fell 28 cents, or 0.4% to $65.06 a barrel, while US West Texas fell 0.6% to $63.01 a barrel.

Weekly Gains after Two Weeks of Losses 

Oil prices are heading for weekly gains after two weeks of losses, with Brent up 1.8% this week, while Brent is up 3.7%.

Prices were boosted after a phone call between Trump and Jinping, with Trump describing it as “very positive”.

Canada also continued its trade talks with the US, with PM Carney in direct talks with Trump according to government sources.

However, trade uncertainty remains a negative overall for oil prices.

Fitch Ratings expect oil prices to be underpinned as the US potentially prepares to impose new sanctions on Venezuela, while Israel is gearing up for an attack against Iranian infrastructure. 

However, prices are facing pressure due to weaker demand and higher production from OPEC+ members.

Saudi Reduces Prices

Saudi Arabia reduced its oil prices for Asian countries in July to two-month lows, after OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 411,000 thousand bpd in July. 

Saudi Arabia has been pushing for increasing production amid a strategy to regain market share. 

HSBC expects the oil market to reach a balance in the second and third quarters, as summer demand spikes in July and August, absorbing higher OPEC+ production, before the balance turns into a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The dollar is heading for a weekly loss today amid a weak US economic performance and little progress in trade talks with global partners. 

Investors are closely assessing the US payrolls report released today to gauge the path ahead for the Fed’s monetary policies, with recent data so far showing the economy is facing increasing inflationary pressures and slower growth.

A slowdown in US job creations indicates that corporations remain uncertain and concerned about tariffs, but it likely won’t change the Fed’s cautious perspective.

Dollar No Longer a Haven?

The dollar is increasingly losing its global status as a safe haven as investors continue to flee US assets in droves.

The yen fell 0.35% today to 144.12 against the dollar, while the Swiss franc fell to 0.82.

Sterling fell 0.18% to $1.35 away from a three-year high but still heading for a 0.6% weekly profit. 

The dollar index eked out some gains today to 98.9, but still headed towards a 0.5% weekly loss.

ECB’s Bullish Stance

The euro tapered off six-week highs, scaled after bullish remarks by ECB officials, with the price now down to $1.1423.

Traders now expect 25 basis points of rate cuts overall by the ECB by the end of the year, with some, such as Deutsche Bank, expecting double that amount. 

Recent data showed German exports and industrial production weaker than expected in April, reflecting the challenges facing the economy.

Markets React to Trump-Xi Calls

Most currencies gained on the dollar on Thursday after the Trump-Xi phone call before giving up some of the gains.

However, the call didn’t provide much clarity with concerns still persistent on the future of trade negotiations between the two economies.