Yen on track for biggest weekly profit in 2025
The Japanese yen rose on Friday against a basket of major rivals, maintaining its gains for the fourth straight session against the dollar and trading near six-month highs, and on track for the biggest weekly profit in 2025.
It comes amid strong haven demand on fears of a total global trade war that would tank the global economy and renew inflationary pressures.
The yen is also boosted by a steep decline in US 10-year treasury yields as investors buy the bonds aggressively, ahead of the US payrolls report for March.
The Price
The USD/JPY fell 0.5% today to 145.30, with a session-high at 146.41.
The yen rose 2.15% on Thursday against the dollar, marking the third profit in a row, and the largest since December 2023 as global markets were shaken by Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
Weekly Trades
The yen is up 3.0% so far against the dollar this week, on track for the biggest weekly profit in 2025.
Trump’s Tariffs
US President Donald Trump announced new historic reciprocal tariffs on many countries, that start with a base 10% and rise by many folds depending on the country.
He described the new tariffs as “a declaration of independence” and today as the “liberation day”.
He accused the world of “looting, pillaging, and raping the US for many years” on the economic trade fronts, with barriers being put in front of US companies worldwide.
Trump said the new tariffs are pivotal to bring back wealth to the United States, and he believes the 1929 Great Depression wouldn’t have happened if tariffs were kept.
He called NAFTA one of the worst trade deals ever, and said a single Chinese shipping yard produces more than the entire US production of ships.
He imposed 34% additional tariffs on China, 24% on Japan, 20% on the EU, 46% on Vietnam, 26% on India, 32% on Taiwan, 10% on the UK.
Aggressive Japan tariffs
US tariffs on Japan were much higher than expected at 24%, with the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expecting the new tariffs to have a huge impact on global trade and growth.
Because of such developments, the odds of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike later this year tumbled to nearly zero.
US Yields
US 10-year treasury yields fell 1.7% today on track for the sixth decline in a row to a six-month low at 3.970%.
It comes as investors brace for slower growth, which could force the Federal Reserve to conduct more interest rate cuts this year.
According to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a 0.25% Fed Rate cut in Macy rose to 28%.
The odds of such a cut in June surged to 92%.
A reduced gap between long-term Japanese and US rates would boost the appeal of Japanese yields as an investment target, in turn underpinning the yen.
NASDAQ tumbles over 1000 points, S&P 500 marks worst daily loss since 2020
US stock indices fell sharply on Thursday and extended the heavy losses as a global trade war erupts between the US and most other countries, threatening higher inflation and recession.
US President Donald Trump announced new historic reciprocal tariffs on many countries, that start with a base 10% and rise by many folds depending on the country.
He described the new tariffs as “a declaration of independence” and today as the “liberation day”.
He accused the world of “looting, pillaging, and raping the US for many years” on the economic trade fronts, with barriers being put in front of US companies worldwide.
Trump said the new tariffs are pivotal to bring back wealth to the United States, and he believes the 1929 Great Depression wouldn’t have happened if tariffs were kept.
He called NAFTA one of the worst trade deals ever, and said a single Chinese shipping yard produces more than the entire US production of ships.
He imposed 34% additional tariffs on China, 24% on Japan, 20% on the EU, 46% on Vietnam, 26% on India, 32% on Taiwan, 10% on the UK.
Morgan Stanley analysts now expect the Federal Reserve to refrain from any rate cuts this year as inflation is likely to spike following the new total tariffs.
Earlier US data showed unemployment claims fell by 6 thousand to 219 thousand last week, while analysts expected a rise to 227 thousand.
Otherwise, the ISM services PMI fell to 50.8 in March from 53.5 in February, while analysts expected 53.
Dow Jones slid 4%, or 1679 points to 40,546 points, with a session-low at 40513 points.
S&P 500 tumbled 4.8%, or 274 points to 5396 points, with a session-low at 5390 points.
NASDAQ tumbled 5.9%, or 1050 points to 16550 points, with a session-low at 16,53 points.
Ethereum tumbles over 6% as trade wars erupt
Most cryptocurrencies tumbled on Thursday amid aggressive selling pressures that hit most assets in global markets as trade wars erupt.
US President Donald Trump announced new historic reciprocal tariffs on many countries, that start with a base 10% and rise by many folds depending on the country.
He described the new tariffs as “a declaration of independence” and today as the “liberation day”.
He accused the world of “looting, pillaging, and raping the US for many years” on the economic trade fronts, with barriers being put in front of US companies worldwide.
Trump said the new tariffs are pivotal to bring back wealth to the United States, and he believes the 1929 Great Depression wouldn’t have happened if tariffs were kept.
He called NAFTA one of the worst trade deals ever, and said a single Chinese shipping yard produces more than the entire US production of ships.
He imposed 34% additional tariffs on China, 24% on Japan, 20% on the EU, 46% on Vietnam, 26% on India, 32% on Taiwan, 10% on the UK.
Morgan Stanley analysts now expect the Federal Reserve to refrain from any rate cuts this year as inflation is likely to spike following the new total tariffs.
Earlier US data showed unemployment claims fell by 6 thousand to 219 thousand last week, while analysts expected a rise to 227 thousand.
Otherwise, the ISM services PMI fell to 50.8 in March from 53.5 in February, while analysts expected 53.
Ethereum
On trading, ethereum slumped 6.4% as of 20:10 GMT on Coinmarketcap to $1784.8.
Ripple
Ripple slid 4.4% on Coinmarketcap to $2.05.
Commodity currencies rise as US dollar drops on trade war concerns
Commodity currencies rose on Thursday as the US dollar fell against most major rivals as the global trade war erupts following aggressive US tariffs.
Earlier US data showed unemployment claims fell by 6 thousand to 219 thousand last week, while analysts expected a rise to 227 thousand.
Otherwise, the ISM services PMI fell to 50.8 in March from 53.5 in February, while analysts expected 53.
US President Donald Trump announced new historic reciprocal tariffs on many countries, that start with a base 10% and rise by many folds depending on the country.
He described the new tariffs as “a declaration of independence” and today as the “liberation day”.
He accused the world of “looting, pillaging, and raping the US for many years” on the economic trade fronts, with barriers being put in front of US companies worldwide.
Trump said the new tariffs are pivotal to bring back wealth to the United States, and he believes the 1929 Great Depression wouldn’t have happened if tariffs were kept.
He called NAFTA one of the worst trade deals ever, and said a single Chinese shipping yard produces more than the entire US production of ships.
He imposed 34% additional tariffs on China, 24% on Japan, 20% on the EU, 46% on Vietnam, 26% on India, 32% on Taiwan, 10% on the UK.
On trading, the dollar index fell 1.7% as of 18:47 GMT to 102.06, with a session-high at 103.3, and a low at 101.2.
Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar rose 1.1% against its US counterpart as of 18:59 GMT to 0.71.
Aussie
The Australian dollar rose 0.6% against the US dollar as of 18:59 GMT to 0.6336.