The Japanese yen declined in Asian trading on Thursday against a basket of major and minor currencies, moving into negative territory versus the US dollar after two days of gains. This comes ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where most central bank governors are expected to speak.

Amid rising doubts about the likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September, investors are awaiting further evidence on the path of monetary policy normalization for the remainder of the year.

Price Overview

• USD/JPY rose 0.15% to ¥147.51, from an opening price of ¥147.31, with a low at ¥147.25.

• The yen ended Wednesday up 0.25% against the dollar, marking a second consecutive daily gain, supported by concerns over Federal Reserve stability due to Trump’s continued pressure on US policymakers.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index rose 0.1% on Thursday, resuming gains after pausing yesterday, nearing a two-week high at 98.44 points, reflecting broad strength against major and minor currencies.

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook reaffirmed her commitment to remain in office despite President Trump’s calls for her resignation over alleged mortgage fraud.

Minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting showed divisions over tariffs, inflation, and the labor market outlook.

Traders currently see around an 80% chance of a 25-basis point Fed rate cut in September, with expectations of a total 52 basis points of easing for the rest of the year.

Jackson Hole

Central bankers from around the world will attend the symposium, beginning later today, though the main focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday. Markets are looking for signals on the likelihood of a September rate cut.

Japanese Interest Rates

• Market pricing for a 25-basis point Bank of Japan rate hike in September remains steady near 40%.

• Investors await further data on inflation, unemployment, and wages to reassess these expectations.

• BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium, and his remarks are expected to provide more clarity on the monetary policy outlook.

• A survey shows 63% of economists expect the BoJ to raise the benchmark rate to at least 0.75% by year-end, up from 54% in July.

• Another survey shows 92% of economists expect the BoJ to keep rates at 0.50% through the end of September.

Ethereum price rose in Wednesday’s trading amid renewed demand for several cryptocurrencies driven by purchases from companies, institutions, and investors.

Ethereum came under selling pressure after US spot Ethereum ETFs saw $197 million in outflows on Monday, the second-largest daily withdrawal on record.

The selling coincided with a record increase in ETH unstaking requests, with pending withdrawals reaching $3.9 billion. Timothy Messer, head of research at BRN, said the two factors together “weigh on market sentiment in the near term.”

He added in a note to investors that the $4,400 level has become a critical support for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market value. According to CoinGecko data, Ethereum is currently trading at $4,203.84, little changed from the previous day.

These outflows came days after Ethereum failed to set a new record high above its previous peak of $4,891.70 from November 2021, with gains stalling at $4,776.32 on Thursday, August 14.

Analysts see the developments as reflecting profit-taking after Ethereum climbed 66% over the past year, a rally that attracted broad institutional interest. Data shows that Ethereum funds hold about 5.08% of total supply, while Messer expects that share to soon exceed 6.38% of Bitcoin held through funds “if investment inflows continue at the current pace.”

Separately, minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released Wednesday showed that only two policymakers at last month’s meeting opposed the decision to keep rates unchanged, and they did not gain support for a rate cut.

The minutes of the July 29–30 meeting stated: “Almost all participants judged it appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50% at this meeting.”

The minutes showed officials continued active debate over the impact of tariffs on inflation and the degree of monetary policy restraint. Several policymakers noted the current rate level may not be far from the “neutral” rate that neither stimulates nor restricts the economy.

They assessed that higher tariffs are becoming more visible in certain goods prices, but the overall effect on the economy and inflation remains uncertain.

Looking ahead, participants acknowledged they may face difficult tradeoffs if high inflation persists while the labor market weakens.

Before the minutes were released, CME’s FedWatch tool priced in an 85% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s September 16–17 meeting. Rates have remained steady since December.

The minutes come just two days before Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s anticipated speech at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming, hosted by the Kansas City Fed.

Powell’s Friday morning address is expected to be his last as Fed Chair, with his term ending next May.

The speech will indicate whether he has shifted toward those calling for action to protect the labor market from further weakness, or if he remains aligned with hawks still focused on inflation and the Fed’s 2% target.

Ethereum

In trading, Ethereum rose 4.4% to $4,338.8 at 20:23 GMT on CoinMarketCap.

The Federal Reserve’s minutes released Wednesday showed that the two policymakers who dissented from last month’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged did not receive support from other members for a rate cut.

The minutes from the July 29–30 meeting stated: “Almost all participants judged that it was appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50% at this meeting.”

Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller both voted against keeping the benchmark rate steady, preferring a quarter-point cut to protect the labor market from further weakness. This marked the first time since 1993 that more than one governor dissented on a rate decision.

Within 48 hours of the meeting, Labor Department data appeared to validate Bowman and Waller’s concerns, showing July job gains well below expectations, alongside higher unemployment and the lowest participation rate since late 2022.

Adding to the unease, historical revisions removed more than a quarter-million jobs previously thought to have been created in May and June, undercutting the narrative of a resilient labor market. The revisions infuriated President Donald Trump, who responded by firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Subsequent inflation data, however, gave ammunition to those worried about Trump’s aggressive tariffs rekindling price pressures. Core consumer inflation accelerated in July beyond forecasts, followed by an unexpected spike in producer prices.

The minutes revealed that officials continued debating the impact of tariffs on inflation and the degree of current monetary restraint. Several policymakers noted that rates may not be far from the “neutral” level that neither stimulates nor restricts growth.

They acknowledged tariffs were already pushing up some goods prices, but judged the overall economic and inflation effects as still uncertain. Looking ahead, participants recognized the potential trade-offs if inflation stays elevated while the labor market weakens further.

Trump’s Pressure Campaign

Before the release, CME’s FedWatch tool priced an 85% chance of a quarter-point cut at the September 16–17 meeting. Rates have been unchanged since last December.

The minutes come just two days ahead of Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium, likely his final address as Fed chief before his term expires next May. The speech will signal whether Powell is shifting toward protecting jobs or remains aligned with inflation hawks as the Fed’s 2% goal drifts further out of reach.

The lack of cuts since Trump’s return to the White House has drawn the president’s ire, with repeated attacks on Powell for holding rates steady. Trump has already begun exploring replacements, aided by a surprise resignation this month that gives him another seat to fill on the Board of Governors.

He nominated Council of Economic Advisers chair Steven Miran to replace former governor Adriana Kugler, whose term was set to expire in January. It remains unclear if the Senate will confirm Miran before the next Fed meeting.

On Wednesday, Trump escalated pressure further by demanding the resignation of Governor Lisa Cook, accusing her of mortgage-related improprieties tied to properties in Georgia and Michigan.

Let’s start with the conclusion: the wave of cancellations hitting large-scale hydrogen projects is not a catastrophe—it’s a sign of progress. The sector is maturing quickly, shedding glossy proposals and players unwilling to adapt, while leaving space for quiet, effective pioneers.

The Hype Bubble Has Burst—And That’s a Good Thing

Between 2021 and 2023, demand for low-carbon hydrogen remained marginal—under one million tonnes compared with total global hydrogen demand of 97 million tonnes, still mostly fossil-based. At the same time, the “Hydrogen Insights 2024” report noted a seven-fold increase in global electrolysis capacity that passed final investment decision (FID) over four years, though still modest at around 20 GW.

In Europe, 3 GW of electrolyser capacity has cleared FID, expected to deliver about 415,000 tonnes of renewable hydrogen annually. By contrast, blue hydrogen projects have seen over 1.4 million tonnes per year cancelled, with only ~400,000 tonnes per year surviving to FID. The lesson is clear: oversized ideas that fail basic economics don’t survive.

This correction is healthy. Projects moving forward are smaller, better designed, and directly tied to decarbonisation needs.

Real Hydrogen: Focused and Practical Projects

Take Engie’s Yuri project in Western Australia: Phase 1 involves a 10 MW electrolyser powered by 18 MW of solar and backed by an 8 MW battery. It will supply ~640 tonnes of renewable hydrogen annually to Yara’s ammonia production. Unflashy, but effective—demand is clear, production is underway.

In Europe, Engie has also greenlit its share of the mosaHYc hydrogen pipeline between France and Germany, while the H2Med/Barmar corridor between Barcelona and Marseille is targeting up to 2 million tonnes a year by 2030. Germany’s Lubmin ammonia-to-hydrogen terminal aims for final approval by end-2025, targeting costs near $3–3.50/kg by 2027—well below current European levels of $8–10/kg.

These are not megaprojects chasing headlines. They are industrially anchored solutions, fitting into hard-to-abate sectors such as ammonia, methanol, refining, and steelmaking.

Why Smaller is Smarter

Failed megaprojects often lacked clear offtake, relied on unproven technologies, or pursued unrealistic scale. By contrast, today’s survivors are embedded in existing industrial demand, with clear economics. Blue hydrogen, for instance, can be produced in Europe at €3.8–4.4/kg—far cheaper than most green hydrogen.

This shift means fewer projects overall, but stronger, more sustainable ones—designed to deliver real industrial decarbonisation rather than speculative hype.

Policy Support Becomes More Targeted

Policy frameworks are also maturing. The EU’s Hydrogen Bank is directing funds to projects with genuine emission-reduction value. Germany’s KfW is financing import terminals rather than forcing uneconomic domestic production. Public money is being channelled where hydrogen is needed most.

A Smaller, Better Hydrogen Economy

The hydrogen economy will likely be smaller than early, exaggerated forecasts suggested. But that is a strength, not a weakness.

A leaner sector that displaces fossil-based hydrogen, cuts emissions in heavy industry, and builds on solid engineering is far preferable to a sprawl of doomed giga-projects. What matters now is not thousands of ideas, but a handful of excellent ones. Let the bad ones die. Let the noise fade. What remains is real.