The Japanese yen rose in Asian trading on Thursday against a basket of major and secondary currencies, extending its recovery for a second consecutive day against the US dollar amid continued buying from six-week lows, supported by recent comments from Japan’s finance minister.

Weak labor market data in Japan has reduced expectations for Japanese interest rate hikes in the near term, as investors await further evidence on the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy path this year.

Price Overview

Japanese yen exchange rate today: the dollar fell against the yen by 0.4% to ¥156.45, down from the opening level of ¥157.05, after touching a session high of ¥157.19.

The yen ended Wednesday’s trading up by 0.4% against the dollar, marking its first gain in the past three days after hitting a six-week low of ¥157.97 in the previous session.

Japanese Finance Minister

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that financial officials are monitoring markets closely with a “strong sense of urgency.” When asked about the possibility of currency market intervention, she said Japan reached a mutual understanding with the United States last year.

Japanese interest rates

Data released this week in Tokyo showed Japan’s unemployment rate rose to 2.7% in January, above market expectations of 2.6%, after recording 2.6% in December.

Following the data, market pricing for a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in March fell from 15% to 5%.

Pricing for a 25-basis-point rate increase in April also dropped from 40% to 25%.

In the latest Reuters poll, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to 1% by September.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley and MUFG wrote in a joint research note that they had already viewed the probability of a rate hike in March or April as low, but with rising uncertainty stemming from developments in the Middle East, the Bank of Japan is likely to adopt a more cautious stance, further reducing the chances of a near-term rate hike.

Investors are now awaiting additional data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan to reassess these expectations.

Palladium prices rose during Wednesday’s trading amid buying from lower levels after the industrial metal suffered heavy losses on Tuesday. The metal had come under strong pressure alongside declines in other industrial metals as geopolitical concerns linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East between the United States and China weighed on markets.

Key factors behind the decline:

Supply disruptions and geopolitical risks

Escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to some mining operations increased concerns about supply. Paradoxically, these fears did not translate into strong buying interest, but instead added to market volatility while sellers remained dominant in trading.

Weak US support for electric vehicle policies

The fading political momentum behind electric vehicle incentives in the United States has pressured market sentiment. Palladium is widely used in automotive catalytic converters, so any slowdown in supportive policies weighs on expectations for industrial demand.

Clear technical pressure

The drop below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages sent a negative signal to short-term traders. The ADX indicator also reflects weak trend strength with a bearish bias, suggesting that downside momentum has not yet become strong enough to trigger a decisive reversal, despite sellers continuing to dominate the market.

Analysts’ views: mixed expectations

Analyst Anton Kharitonov of Traders Union believes the break below short- and medium-term averages is a warning signal, identifying $1,715 as a key support level. He noted that a break below this level could open the door to further losses, stressing that any current rebound appears fragile as long as sellers remain in control of the market.

Meanwhile, analyst Viktoras Karabitiants from the same firm takes a more optimistic view, noting that weekly indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remain supportive over the longer term. He believes the range between $1,700 and $1,750 represents a consolidation phase within a broader long-term uptrend.

Analyst Parshwa Turakhia focuses on the short term, explaining that indicators such as Stoch RSI and CCI point to oversold conditions that could allow quick rebounds toward the $1,750 level, although high volatility in the market is expected to persist.

In US trading today, palladium futures rose by 1.9% to $1,678.5 per ounce at 16:27 GMT.

Bitcoin has returned to break above the $70,000 level, one of the strongest psychological thresholds in the market. Despite the fear currently dominating global equity markets and the decline in metals such as silver, capital appears to be flowing toward Bitcoin.

As seen yesterday, Bitcoin had already recorded positive funding rates, along with positive inflows across all 12 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. These signals pointed clearly to growing bullish momentum. Despite the strength of the US dollar, it was unable to exert the expected downward pressure on Bitcoin during today’s trading.

BTC/USDT and the return toward $90,000

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $71,169, near the upper boundary of a consolidation channel, with signs emerging of a shift in price behavior.

The $76,000 level represents the next resistance zone that must be broken, as it coincides with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50). A breakout above this level could strengthen momentum and push the price toward $90,000.

The bearish scenario would involve the price failing within the $70,000–$76,000 range, which could lead to a renewed decline toward levels seen during the recent period of geopolitical tensions.

Ethereum jumps above $2,000 as altcoins follow

After Bitcoin began showing bullish behavior during yesterday’s sessions, major altcoins followed the move.

Ethereum jumped above the $2,000 level after trading below it throughout the week. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at around $250 billion, has surpassed both the 7-day simple moving average (SMA7) at $1,989.48 and the 7-day exponential moving average at $1,976.66.

If positive momentum continues and the price maintains $2,000 as support, it could move to test the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance level at $2,240.

Altcoins follow the “leader” Bitcoin

With Bitcoin’s momentum shifting, several other altcoins have recorded gains over the past 24 hours.

XDC surged to its highest level in two weeks after rebounding from a correction at $0.0364.

Morpho is trading at $1.96, continuing its upward trend, having gained 67% over the past month and 3.5% in the last 24 hours. This move came after increased network usage and a rise in total value locked (TVL) by 2.97, alongside a higher number of locked Ethereum tokens compared with last year’s low of 976,000 ETH.

Binance Coin (BNB) also climbed above $650 with strong signals suggesting a breakout from its lower consolidation range. Other cryptocurrencies that posted gains include:

Ripple (XRP)

Solana

Litecoin

Hedera

Uniswap

Polkadot

Bittensor (TAO)

Near Protocol

The top ten cryptocurrencies recorded an average gain of around 5%, with the positive outlook continuing in the short and medium term.

The US dollar held near its highest levels in three months on Wednesday as investors adopted a deeply bearish stance toward the euro amid concerns about persistently high energy prices following the conflict in the Middle East, which has weighed on global equity markets.

The euro was steady at $1.1612 after earlier touching its weakest level since late November, following data released Tuesday showing eurozone inflation accelerated faster than expected in February, before the Iranian conflict began.

George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, said the impact of the Iranian war on the euro/dollar pair comes down to one factor: energy.

Options Market Signals Weakness in the Euro

Financial markets resumed their selloff on Wednesday as fears of rising inflation spread after Israeli and US strikes on targets in Iran, prompting investors to rush toward liquidity.

The options market shows traders are more bearish on the euro than at any time in at least a year, reversing the overwhelmingly bullish stance seen just six weeks ago.

“We are still in a scenario where dollar dips will be short-lived and bought, because there is a lot of negativity priced into most currencies sensitive to energy prices,” said Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets. “And in Europe, everything revolves around natural gas prices.”

The cost of euro put options against the dollar for the coming quarter reached the highest premium since last March, according to LSEG data, indicating traders expect further downside for the euro.

Euro Could Fall Toward $1.13

Saravelos noted that every combined 10% rise in Brent crude and European natural gas prices reduces the euro’s value by about 0.8%, adding that Brent and gas reaching $100 per barrel could push the euro/dollar pair toward roughly $1.13.

Global oil and gas prices have surged as Middle East energy exports were disrupted following Iran’s retaliatory strikes on ships and infrastructure, which closed shipping routes in the Gulf and halted production from Qatar to Iraq.

Brent futures have risen about 16% since Friday to reach $84 per barrel, the highest level since July 2024, while European gas prices have climbed about 85% since the end of last week.

European Central Bank Outlook

Market traders are pricing a 33% chance that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates this year, compared with a 40% probability of a rate cut just a week ago.

Elsewhere, the British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3323, pressured by rising energy costs as UK inflation remains at 3%, above the Bank of England’s 2% target.

Meanwhile, the dollar index was steady at 99.05 after reaching its strongest level since November 28. The dollar slipped 0.26% against the yen to ¥157.35 and edged down 0.1% against the offshore yuan to 6.913 after mixed Chinese PMI data for February.