The Japanese yen fell in Asian trading on Tuesday against a basket of major and minor currencies, extending losses for a third consecutive day versus the US dollar and hitting its lowest level in two weeks. The decline comes amid weak expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in September.

The US currency continued to trade in positive territory after the 90-day extension of the trade truce between the United States and China, ahead of key inflation data for July in the world’s largest economy.

The Price

• USD/JPY exchange rate today: The dollar rose 0.2% to ¥148.43 — the highest since August 1 — from an opening price of ¥148.14, with a session low of ¥147.99.

• The yen ended Monday’s session down 0.3% against the dollar, marking a second straight daily loss, pressured by a rise in US 10-year Treasury yields.

Japanese Interest Rates

• Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s June policy meeting showed some board members said the central bank would consider resuming rate hikes if trade tensions eased.

• Market pricing for a quarter-point rate increase at the September meeting is steady around 40%.

• Investors are awaiting further data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan to reassess those expectations.

US Dollar

The US dollar index rose by less than 0.1% on Tuesday, holding gains for a third straight day, reflecting continued strength against a basket of global currencies.

US President Donald Trump extended the suspension of higher tariffs on Chinese goods and products for another 90 days, until early November, in a move aimed at easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. This helped reduce uncertainty and bolstered investor risk appetite in financial markets.

As the US and China work toward a new trade agreement, a US official told Reuters that chipmakers Nvidia and AMD have agreed to allocate 15% of their China sales revenue to the US government in order to secure export licenses for semiconductors.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point US interest rate cut in September and a 15% chance of no change.

Investors later today await the release of key US inflation data for July, which will indicate how much the recent tariff increases have affected prices and the extent of inflationary pressures facing Federal Reserve policymakers.

Yen Performance Outlook

At Economies.com, we expect the yen to remain in negative territory against the US dollar, especially if US inflation data comes in hotter than market expectations.

Oil prices were steady on Monday, recovering from earlier session losses, as investors awaited talks between the United States and Russia this week over the conflict between Moscow and Ukraine.

The US dollar index — which measures the currency against a basket of major peers — rose 0.35% to 98.54 at 10:23 p.m. Mecca time.

US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to hold direct talks on Friday in the US state of Alaska to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.

A Reuters survey showed OPEC production rose to 27.38 million barrels per day last month, an increase of 270,000 bpd compared with June.

In trading, Brent crude futures for October delivery settled flat at $66.63 a barrel after falling to $65.81 earlier in the session.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for September delivery gained 0.15%, or 8 cents, to close at $63.96 a barrel after hitting a session low of $63.02.

Gold prices fell on Monday as the US dollar strengthened against most major currencies and investors moved away from safe-haven assets following the announcement of an extension to the negotiation deadline between the US and China.

On Tuesday, the US is set to release consumer price index (CPI) inflation data, with expectations for the core CPI to rise by 0.3% month-over-month in July and by 3% year-over-year.

US President Donald Trump announced via his Truth Social platform that gold will not be subject to tariffs, overturning a decision by US Customs authorities to impose duties on imported bullion from Switzerland.

“Gold will not be subject to tariffs!” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

The White House also revealed that President Trump signed an executive order extending the suspension of elevated US tariffs on Chinese goods for an additional 90 days, according to a White House official quoted by CNBC on Monday afternoon.

The order was signed just hours before midnight, when the temporary freeze on Trump’s tariffs had been set to expire.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index rose 0.4% to 98.5 points at 20:58 GMT, after hitting a high of 99.3 and a low of 98.03.

In metals trading, spot gold fell 2.6% — or $90.5 — to $3,401.1 an ounce at 20:59 GMT, marking its largest daily loss since May.

Bitcoin came close to its all-time high after an overnight rally that also pushed Ethereum to levels not seen since 2021.

According to Coin Metrics data, Bitcoin rose 1% to $119,782, while Ethereum slipped about 1.6% to $4,181 after surging on Sunday to its highest level since December 2021. On Friday, Ethereum broke above $4,000 for the first time since then.

These moves came as US stock futures climbed on Monday morning, with investors awaiting key inflation data while equities trade near record highs.

Shares of Coinbase rose more than 5%, Circle gained 3%, and Galaxy Digital jumped 8%. Bitcoin Proxy Strategy shares added over 4%, while several mining companies, including Mara Holdings, Riot Platforms, and Iris Energy, posted gains of more than 3%.

After strong performances from cryptocurrencies and stocks in the second quarter, many investors expected a healthy slowdown in August — historically a weak trading month across markets, including crypto.

Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, said the recent crypto rally was driven by Asian-session buying amid the rapid expansion of US debt. He noted that Bitcoin’s breakout from its “accumulation” range in early July coincided with President Donald Trump signing the “Beautiful Big Bill,” which raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.

“Bitcoin’s breakout isn’t random — it’s fueled by the fastest US debt expansion in history, and the momentum is still strong,” Thielen said. “Whether the economy stays strong or enters a recession, the influx of new debt is a tailwind for hard assets like Bitcoin and gold.” He added that the next major resistance level at $133,000 is now in sight, with market structure and positioning favoring buyers.

Meanwhile, Ethereum-related stocks benefited from capital flows into a new set of treasury companies, pushing the second-largest cryptocurrency above $4,000 — a key psychological and technical level for investors.

Bitmain Emergent Technologies shares soared 25% — after a nearly identical jump on Friday — while Sharp Link Gaming climbed 11%. According to Sosovalue data, Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted $326.83 million in inflows last week, compared to $246.75 million for Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin remains about 3% below its July 14 peak, while Ethereum is still 14% under its November 2021 record.

Ethereum’s breakout through a years-long technical barrier, along with Bitcoin’s weekend rally, has strengthened expectations for the start of an “altcoin season.” Analysts believe that a pause in Bitcoin and Ethereum’s rise could pave the way for a strong run in altcoins if economic conditions remain stable.

In just four months, Ethereum has more than tripled in value thanks to large inflows from digital asset treasuries and US spot ETFs, while Bitcoin has gained more than 600% over the past two years.

Shashank Sripada, co-founder and COO of generative AI network GAIA, said: “Conditions are set for altcoin season,” explaining that such a season typically begins when capital rotates toward riskier tokens after major coins stall.

Coinanalyze data shows altcoin dominance rising against Ethereum, while the CoinGlass Altcoin Season Index — which measures the performance of all non-Bitcoin assets relative to Bitcoin — stands at 39 after peaking at 88 in early December.

João Weidson, founder of crypto analytics platform Alfractale, said “the fun phase for altcoins has just begun and could last until November,” noting in a post on X that Ethereum’s recent performance, driven by institutional interest and ETF inflows, could support this season.

Last week, Ethereum inflows ($325 million) far outpaced Bitcoin inflows ($247 million), highlighting Ethereum’s push to catch up with Bitcoin in this space — potentially attracting new capital into related altcoins.

A Whale Builds a Massive Treasury

CryptoPolitan reported that a new treasury formed last week through continuous purchases from the open market and over-the-counter (OTC) platforms, following a previous commitment to hold 171,000 ETH. The entity added 49,533 ETH near the latest local peak, bringing total holdings to 221,166 ETH spread across several linked wallets, each containing between 42,013 and 29,772 ETH.

The entity’s identity remains unknown, but speculation links it to major treasuries such as Bitmain or Sharp Link Gaming. Institutional buyers today use different storage strategies than early investors or ICO treasuries, due to evolving security concerns and transaction tracking as Ethereum’s value rises.

Ethereum reserves across all exchanges have fallen near historic lows at 18.89 million ETH, while Binance’s reserves have risen since May — suggesting a mix of whale deposits for trading or participation in the exchange’s liquid staking program, where it holds around 8.32% of market share.

Selling Pressure from Some Early Whales

Despite expectations for new price highs, one Ethereum ICO participant sold 2,300 ETH — nearly their entire initial investment. While the investment’s nominal value has grown, Ethereum still trades relatively low against Bitcoin, having peaked at 0.14 BTC during its launch period.

The current rally has not been accompanied by significant retail buying, while institutions remain capable of absorbing large amounts of ETH to generate passive income through decentralized finance (DeFi) instruments.

Analysts Remain Upbeat on Further Gains

Traders and investors see Ethereum’s recent breakout from a “Wyckoff accumulation” pattern as paving the way for sustained gains, with the potential to reach around $6,000, according to analyst Lord Hawkins, who noted that surpassing $4,200 marks a “sign of strength.”

Analysts “Crypto Rover” and “Titan of Crypto” said Ethereum has broken out of a multi-year symmetrical triangle, with a possible technical target of $8,000. Analyst Nilesh Verma believes the token could hit $10,000 in 6–8 months, and potentially $20,000 in the same timeframe, based on previous cycles.

Bitcoin’s Shrinking Share Boosts ‘Flippening’ Talk

Analyst Ali declared that “altcoin season has officially begun” after Ethereum’s net market cap change surpassed Bitcoin’s for the first time this cycle, signaling investor readiness to direct more funds toward other major cryptocurrencies.