The Japanese yen fell in Asian trading on Monday at the start of the week, extending losses for the seventh consecutive session against the US dollar and hitting a three-week low, weighed down by expectations surrounding the new Prime Minister Sanai Takaichi’s expansionary economic policies.

A summit between Takaichi and US President Donald Trump is scheduled for Tuesday in Tokyo as part of Trump’s official visit to Japan, which begins today. The talks are expected to focus on strengthening economic cooperation between the two nations, following the recent trade agreement that laid the groundwork for a new phase of strategic partnership.

The Bank of Japan is also expected to discuss this week whether conditions are suitable to resume rate hikes as fears of tariff-induced recession ease.

Price Overview

• USD/JPY rose by about 0.3% to 153.18 yen — the highest since October 10 — from an opening level of 152.76 yen, with an intraday low of 152.65 yen.

• The yen ended Friday’s session down 0.2% against the dollar, marking its sixth consecutive daily loss — the longest losing streak since early October.

• For the week, the yen lost about 1.5% versus the dollar, its second weekly decline in three weeks, pressured by expectations of new stimulus measures under Takaichi’s government.

New Stimulus Package

Government sources told Reuters that Prime Minister Sanai Takaichi is preparing an economic stimulus package likely to exceed 13.9 trillion yen ($92 billion) to help households cope with rising prices and inflation. The final size of the package is still being finalized and is expected to be announced early next month.

Takaichi–Trump Summit

President Donald Trump arrived in Japan on Monday and will hold a summit with Prime Minister Takaichi the following day to discuss ways to enhance economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. The meeting is expected to address regional and global issues of mutual concern, including relations with China, Indo-Pacific security, and the future of global supply chains.

The visit underscores both nations’ efforts to strengthen their strategic partnership and promote stability and growth across the Asia-Pacific region.

Bank of Japan

• The Bank of Japan meets Wednesday and Thursday this week to assess monetary policy for the world’s fourth-largest economy, with expectations it will leave interest rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive meeting.

• Policymakers are likely to discuss whether conditions are now suitable to resume gradual rate hikes amid easing recession fears linked to global tariffs.

• Prime Minister Takaichi has urged the central bank to coordinate efforts toward achieving inflation driven more by wage growth rather than cost pressures.

Most cryptocurrencies rose on Friday, posting strong weekly gains as risk appetite improved following softer US inflation data and easing trade tensions.

Government data released today showed that the US annual consumer price inflation rate rose 3% in September, below expectations of 3.1%.

Based on these figures, the CME FedWatch tool indicated a sharp jump in the probability of an interest rate cut in December to 98.5%, up from 91% before the data release, while odds for a cut at next week’s meeting remained between 98% and 99%.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment reading for October fell to 53.6 from 55.1 in September, and the index of current economic conditions dropped to its lowest level since August 2022.

The government shutdown in the United States entered its 24th day, while markets continued to monitor corporate earnings results.

Optimism also spread across markets amid signs of easing trade tensions between the United States and China, with investors awaiting talks between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea.

Ripple

As for trading, Ripple (XRP) rose 4.1% to $2.50 at 20:27 GMT on CoinMarketCap, posting a 9.1% gain for the week.

The war economy that has financed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine for 45 months has relied heavily on revenues from oil and gas exports — as well as what critics call Western complacency — and on China and India’s reluctance to fully cut off Russian energy imports.

Now, however, the United States — together with the European Union and the United Kingdom — is targeting Russia’s largest oil and gas companies and their vast web of subsidiaries and affiliates.

On October 22, the US Treasury announced sanctions on state-owned Rosneft and privately held Lukoil, Russia’s two biggest oil producers, whose exports have been a key source of funding for the Kremlin.

A day later, the EU imposed its own sanctions on Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, a major oil arm of gas giant Gazprom.

President Donald Trump said from the White House on October 22 that the sanctions were “very significant — they target their two main companies,” calling them “massive.”

Will these sanctions work?

The short answer: not immediately.

Alexandra Prokopenko, a former adviser at the Russian central bank and a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, said, “I think the short-term impact of these sanctions will be limited. Both companies were likely preparing for this in advance. A large share of their oil exports is already priced in yuan and rubles, so I don’t expect a dramatic effect on the budget.”

Maria Shagina of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Berlin called the measures the first truly consequential steps taken by the Trump administration, reflecting frustration with what she described as Russia’s “foot-dragging” on efforts to scale back or end the war in Ukraine.

But she added: “It remains to be seen how serious the Trump administration is about enforcing them.”

The US announcement delayed implementation for one month — until November 21. “More importantly,” Shagina noted, “it’s unclear whether the Treasury will take an extraterritorial approach and target Chinese and Indian entities, including banks, through secondary sanctions.”

Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow at the Defense Priorities think tank in Washington, expressed doubt that the measures would significantly affect the war: “For Putin, this war is existential. He’s already shown he’s willing to pay an enormous price — in both Russian lives and economic costs. This latest round of sanctions won’t change his calculus.”

The China (and India) factor

Since the February 2022 invasion, the West has tried to strangle Moscow with sweeping sanctions, making Russia the most heavily sanctioned nation on Earth.

Yet its economy has defied Western predictions of collapse — avoiding a total fiscal breakdown, ruble crash, or runaway inflation.

While growth has slowed, this is largely due to domestic policy decisions such as interest-rate hikes by the central bank to contain inflation. The Kremlin has also raised taxes to preserve revenue streams.

At the same time, Moscow has shown no sign of scaling back its wartime spending despite massive human losses.

Western sanctions have proven more porous and less effective than anticipated, allowing Russia to continue selling oil and gas to eager buyers in China, India, Turkey, and elsewhere.

According to the International Energy Agency, Russia earned $13.35 billion from crude and fuel exports in September — down sharply from July — mainly due to Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries and pipelines that cut refining capacity by as much as 30%.

European loopholes and enforcement limits

Europe remains a weak link in the sanctions regime: some countries, like Slovakia and Hungary, continue buying Russian oil, while others — such as the Netherlands, France, and Belgium — still import Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). EU members also purchase substantial volumes of Russian gas via the TurkStream pipeline.

Trump sharply criticized Europe in a recent UN speech, saying, “They are funding the war against themselves. Who has ever heard of such a thing? They must stop all energy purchases from Russia immediately, or we’re wasting our time.”

Most EU countries halted crude imports in 2022, followed by refined fuels in 2023. The bloc says it aims to end Russian LNG imports entirely by 2027 and has sanctioned more than 20 foreign firms — mostly Chinese — tied to Russian oil trade.

Russia’s workarounds

Rosneft and Lukoil have built alternative systems and supply chains to cushion the blow.

Energy analyst Leslie Palti-Guzman, founder of Energy Vista, said, “The effectiveness of sanctions depends on how strictly they’re enforced and on the strength of US-led alliances. Russian firms have mastered evasion tactics — but Western technologies are tracking ship-to-ship transfers, masking operations, and potential buyers more closely.”

Rachel Ziemba of the Center for a New American Security added: “The new sanctions will be partially offset by the safety nets Rosneft, Lukoil, and their buyers have already put in place. They’ll have an effect, yes — but not a decisive one unless the US shows real willingness to apply secondary sanctions to foreign banks and ports, not just threaten them.”

China and India’s stance

How Beijing and New Delhi — Russia’s biggest oil customers — respond remains uncertain.

China is one of Moscow’s closest commercial and political partners, increasingly reliant on Siberian pipeline gas.

India, meanwhile, has so far resisted US pressure to reduce its Russian oil purchases, prompting Trump to impose punitive tariffs in August, citing New Delhi’s continued energy imports from Moscow.

But signs of a shift are emerging. Reports indicate that Reliance Industries — India’s largest buyer of Russian oil, which holds a supply contract with Rosneft for about 500,000 barrels per day — has suspended imports following Washington’s sanctions announcement.

“New Delhi is more sensitive to US threats and is expected to scale back gradually,” said Shagina. “But scaring off China’s small ‘teapot’ refineries, which are less integrated into global energy markets, will be much harder.”

Palti-Guzman concluded: “Aside from China, who’s still willing to take the risk of buying Rosneft oil?”

US stock indexes rose at the start of trading on Friday after the release of US inflation data strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Government data released earlier showed that the annual consumer price index (CPI) rose 3% in September, below forecasts of 3.1%.

Following the report, the CME FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a December rate cut jumped to 98.5%, compared with 91% before the data release, while the odds of a cut at next week’s meeting remained between 98% and 99%.

The rally came as the US government shutdown entered its 24th day, with investors also monitoring corporate earnings reports.

As of 15:34 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% (338 points) to 47,071, the broader S&P 500 gained 0.7% (50 points) to 6,790, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.1% (251 points) to 23,195.