The Japanese yen rose in Asian trading on Friday against a basket of major and minor currencies, posting its first gain in six days versus the US dollar, as it attempts to recover from a two-week low, supported by moderate buying from oversold levels.

Despite this rebound, the yen is on track to record its largest weekly loss this year, amid growing speculation over the outcome of Japan’s general election scheduled for the weekend. The latest opinion polls show a sweeping lead for the ruling coalition led by current Prime Minister Sanai Takaichi, giving her a green light to move forward with expansionary plans to stimulate the economy.

Price overview

The Japanese yen exchange rate today: The dollar fell against the yen by 0.3% to ¥156.51, from today’s opening level at ¥157.02, and recorded an intraday high of ¥157.05.

The yen closed Thursday down by 0.15% against the dollar, marking its fifth consecutive daily loss, and hit a two-week low at ¥157.34 per dollar, driven by election-related speculation in Japan.

Weekly performance

So far this week — which officially ends with today’s settlement — the Japanese yen is down about 1.2% against the US dollar. This would mark its first weekly loss in three weeks and the largest weekly decline since December 2025.

Japanese elections

Global markets are closely watching Japan ahead of the early general election scheduled for Sunday. Prime Minister Sanai Takaichi is seeking a strong mandate to increase spending, cut taxes, and pass a new security strategy expected to accelerate the country’s defense buildup.

Opinion polls

The latest opinion polls indicate a sweeping lead for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party led by Sanai Takaichi, strengthening her chances of forming a strong government after the election.

Polls by Asahi newspaper and Kyodo News suggest the ruling coalition could win a decisive majority, with the Liberal Democratic Party expected to exceed the absolute majority threshold of 233 seats, and the coalition with its partners potentially reaching around 300 seats out of 465.

Takaichi continues to show solid approval ratings, with recent polls indicating government support between 57% and 64%. Her popularity is especially strong among younger voters aged 18–29, where approval in some surveys has approached 90%.

Sanai Takaichi

Japanese Prime Minister Sanai Takaichi said on Saturday that a weaker yen has positive aspects, in remarks that appeared to contrast with repeated Finance Ministry warnings about possible intervention to support the currency.

In a campaign speech ahead of next week’s election, Takaichi said that despite criticism of the weak yen, it represents a valuable opportunity for export sectors, from food industries to automobiles. She added that the currency’s decline has acted as a buffer against US tariffs and provided tangible support to the economy.

Japanese interest rates

Market pricing for a quarter-point interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the March meeting remains below 10%.

To reprice those expectations, investors are awaiting further data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.

Outlook for the Japanese yen

Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said that a strong performance by the Liberal Democratic Party would encourage Takaichi to proceed with economic stimulus plans, increasing the risk of a heavier government debt burden and weighing on Japanese government bonds and the yen.

Samara Hammoud, also a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said that a landslide victory for the ruling party would ease short-term constraints on Takaichi’s fiscal policy goals, including cutting the consumption tax.

She added that it remains unclear how Takaichi plans to finance expansionary fiscal policy, and renewed concerns over rising government debt would negatively affect Japanese government bonds and the yen.

US stock indices declined during Thursday’s trading session, extending losses for a third consecutive session amid broad-based selling across the markets.

Government data released yesterday showed that the US private sector added 22,000 jobs last month, below expectations that called for 45,000 new jobs, signaling a continued slowdown in the labor market in the world’s largest economy at the start of 2026.

Additional data released today showed that US job openings totaled 6.54 million in December, missing expectations for 7.25 million openings.

Due to the ongoing government shutdown, it was announced yesterday that the US monthly jobs report for January, which had been scheduled for release next Friday, has been postponed and will now be issued on February 11.

In trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.8% (about 408 points) to 49,093 as of 17:16 GMT. The broader S&P 500 index declined by 0.9% (about 62 points) to 6,820, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 1.0% (about 235 points) to 22,668.

Bitcoin dropped below a new five-digit threshold, highlighting continued pressure on the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

The leading digital asset by market value — estimated at about $1.39 trillion according to CoinMarketCap — was recently trading at levels not seen since late 2024, after falling below $70,000 per coin. While the price has not been cut in half from its record peak of around $125,000 reached last autumn, the decline is still considered sharp.

The latest wave of selling in Bitcoin comes as investors have recently moved away from higher-risk assets and, in some cases, reallocated portfolios toward more defensive options. For full coverage of today’s trading, see Investopedia.

When market experts are asked what comes next for Bitcoin, opinions vary widely. Optimists continue to point to the cryptocurrency’s long-term potential, not only to recover but to post sharp, accelerating gains similar to prior cycles. Pessimists, on the other hand, warn that further significant losses remain possible. The current market move is also affecting related equities, not just crypto assets themselves.

Among those companies is Strategy, one of the largest corporate buyers of Bitcoin, formerly known as MicroStrategy, which is scheduled to report quarterly results after today’s market close. Earlier this week, the company disclosed its latest Bitcoin purchase, lifting its average acquisition cost to roughly $76,000 per coin.

Any updates or comments from the company and its executives — including executive chairman Michael Saylor — could trigger additional moves in Bitcoin. The company is also promoting the participation of prominent Bitcoin analysts in its investor conference call.

Saylor maintained his bullish tone this week in social media posts, describing the recent price volatility as “a gift for believers.”

Strategy shares fell 7% ahead of Thursday’s opening bell. The stock, which previously recorded strong gains, has lost more than 70% of its value since reaching its all-time high last July.

Oil prices fell by more than 2% on Thursday, but remained close to their highest levels in several months, after the United States and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday.

Brent crude futures declined by $1.54, or 2.2%, to $67.92 per barrel at 13:06 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell by $1.52, or 2.3%, to $63.62 per barrel.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said oil prices are being heavily influenced by Middle East tensions, with markets closely monitoring the upcoming talks in Oman.

These discussions come as the United States works to strengthen its military presence in the Middle East, while regional players seek to avoid a military confrontation that many fear could escalate into a broader war.

Roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran. Other OPEC members — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq — also export most of their crude through the strait, in addition to Iran.

John Evans, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said the market is likely to move sideways ahead of Friday’s meeting, supported by hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough.

He added: “However, there will be no real sense of comfort in prices, as any misstep in rhetoric or a collapse in talks could quickly push Brent toward the $70 per barrel level and target its highest levels since the start of the year.”

Volatility has pushed investors to rush into locking in oil prices this year, with a record number of WTI Midland contracts traded in Houston during January, amid supply risk concerns from the Middle East and rising flows of Venezuelan crude to the US Gulf Coast.

Analysts said the strength of the US dollar and volatility in precious metals markets also weighed on commodities and overall risk sentiment on Thursday.

On the supply side, traders said discounts on Russian oil exports to China widened to new record levels this week, in an effort to attract demand from the world’s largest crude importer and offset the potential loss of sales to India.

That follows a trade deal announced earlier this week between the United States and India, under which New Delhi agreed to stop purchasing Russian crude oil.

Separately, three analysts told Reuters that Argentina’s energy trade surplus could be higher in 2026 than last year’s record levels, driven by oil production from the Vaca Muerta shale formation, with the surplus estimated between $8.5 billion and $10 billion.