The Swiss franc rose in European trading on Thursday against a basket of global currencies, resuming gains against the U.S. dollar as the greenback’s rally paused ahead of key U.S. economic data releases.

The franc’s advance, however, remains limited, with investors refraining from building large positions ahead of the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) policy decision, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged.

Price Overview

USD/CHF today: the dollar slipped 0.1% to 0.7938 francs, down from the opening level of 0.7947, after touching a high of 0.7951.

The franc ended Wednesday down about 0.5% against the dollar, snapping a three-day winning streak, after cautious remarks from some Federal Reserve policymakers.

U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.1% on Thursday, retreating from a two-week high of 97.92, reflecting a pause in the dollar’s upward momentum against global currencies.

Beyond profit-taking and corrections, the dollar is easing ahead of key U.S. releases on Q2 GDP growth and weekly jobless claims. These data are expected to provide clearer signals on whether the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates in the remainder of the year, particularly after the cautious tone expressed by Fed officials.

Swiss National Bank

The SNB concludes its regular policy meeting to assess economic conditions, with markets expecting no change in rates, which remain at 0.00%.

This decision would mark a pause in the monetary easing cycle that began in September 2023 and continued through the June meeting, coming against a backdrop of mounting inflationary pressures, especially from external factors.

The policy rate decision is due at 08:30 GMT, followed by remarks from the SNB Chairman and other officials at a press conference at 09:00 GMT.

Outlook for the Swiss Franc

Here at Economies.com, we expect the franc to continue rising against the U.S. dollar if the SNB delivers comments and projections that are more hawkish than markets currently anticipate.

The Japanese yen rose in Asian trading on Thursday against a basket of major and minor currencies, attempting to recover from a three-week low against the U.S. dollar. The move came on the back of bargain buying from lower levels, supported by a pause in the dollar’s rally ahead of key U.S. data releases.

Expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in October declined after less aggressive comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda, as markets await further evidence on the path of monetary policy normalization in the world’s fourth-largest economy.

Price Overview

USD/JPY today: the dollar fell by 0.15% to ¥148.56, down from the opening level of ¥148.89, after touching a high of ¥148.90.

The yen ended Wednesday down 0.85% against the dollar, snapping a three-day winning streak, and hitting a three-week low at ¥148.92 amid political uncertainty in Japan.

U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar index slipped 0.1% on Thursday, retreating from a two-week high of 97.92, reflecting a pause in the greenback’s rally against global currencies.

Beyond profit-taking and corrective moves, the dollar is easing ahead of key U.S. data on Q2 economic growth and weekly jobless claims. These figures are expected to provide clearer signals on whether the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates through the remainder of the year, particularly after the cautious remarks from Fed officials regarding the policy outlook.

Japanese Interest Rates

Governor Kazuo Ueda said Friday that policymakers must closely monitor the impact of trade policies on financial markets, foreign exchange, the economy, and prices in Japan.

He added that the Bank of Japan will continue raising rates if the economy and inflation evolve in line with expectations, supported by improving conditions.

Following Ueda’s comments, market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate hike in October dropped from 75% to below 50%.

Investors now await further data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan to reassess those odds.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, hitting a seven-week high, after data showed an unexpected decline in U.S. crude inventories, contrary to market forecasts.

The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 0.6 million barrels to 414.8 million barrels last week, while expectations had pointed to an increase of about 0.8 million barrels.

Gasoline inventories dropped by 1.1 million barrels to 216.6 million barrels, while distillate stocks — which include heating oil and diesel — declined by 1.7 million barrels to 123.0 million barrels.

Separately, news agencies reported that Ukraine carried out attacks on oil facilities in Russia’s Volgograd region, while the city of Novorossiysk — home to key ports for oil and grain exports — declared a state of emergency due to the strikes.

At settlement, Brent crude futures for November delivery rose 2.5%, or $1.68, to $69.31 a barrel, the highest since early August. U.S. WTI crude futures for November delivery also gained 2.5%, or $1.58, to close at $64.99 a barrel, marking the highest close since September 2.

China is implementing sweeping changes to the structure of its gold market, in a move that could reshape the global monetary system. These strategic initiatives include expanding vaulting capacity, creating new clearing systems, and easing import restrictions — all aimed at cementing China’s role as a pivotal player in the global gold trade and potentially challenging the dominance of the U.S. dollar.

China’s gold policies go beyond simply accumulating reserves; they represent a comprehensive approach to redefining how gold is traded, stored, priced, and used in international commerce. By building alternative trading mechanisms and physical infrastructure, China appears to be developing a parallel system that operates under different rules and priorities than the Western-dominated markets.

Expansion of the “Hong Kong Gold Hub”

Recent policy moves in Hong Kong mark a key step in China’s gold strategy, reflecting long-term commitment to developing the gold market.

The new policies aim to boost bullion storage capacity in Hong Kong to 2,000 tons — a major expansion that can accommodate massive physical reserves of gold. This capacity is not limited to domestic holdings; it is believed to be designed to also serve international participants seeking alternatives to traditional Western vaults.

Most importantly, Hong Kong is creating a centralized clearing system dedicated to gold transactions. This infrastructure will provide the “financial plumbing” necessary to settle deals outside Western systems, potentially reducing reliance on institutions such as COMEX and the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA).

With these developments, Hong Kong positions itself as a major global gold trading hub, operating with infrastructure independent of Western financial systems and offering an alternative path for nations wishing to conduct transactions outside conventional channels.

Strategic Growth of the Shanghai Gold Exchange

Since its establishment in 2002, the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) has grown from a local trading platform into a globally influential institution.

In a notable step, the SGE opened its first offshore vault in Hong Kong in 2023, expanding its physical footprint beyond mainland China. At the same time, it launched two new gold contracts designed specifically for international investors — a clear signal of Beijing’s intent to attract greater global participation.

These new contracts allow for gold trading denominated in yuan rather than dollars, supporting China’s goal of internationalizing its currency with gold as the trust anchor. By leveraging gold’s universal acceptance, China seeks to boost confidence in yuan-denominated transactions.

The SGE’s approach emphasizes physical delivery of gold, in contrast to Western markets dominated by paper derivatives. By requiring delivery for most trades, the exchange ensures the market more accurately reflects real-world supply and demand.

Why is China Prioritizing Gold in its Economic Strategy?

China’s gold policies represent a coordinated strategy that goes well beyond asset accumulation, addressing multiple economic and geopolitical objectives simultaneously.

Gold plays a dual role in Beijing’s strategy: as both a financial asset and a geopolitical tool. This provides China with a unique mix of economic security and strategic flexibility in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

Reducing Reliance on the Dollar

China’s new gold infrastructure creates a mechanism to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar in global trade and finance.

This system allows transactions to be settled without using the dollar, enabling trading partners to bypass it when necessary. In this setup, gold functions as a neutral safe-haven asset — free from counterparty risk and beyond the control of any single nation.

Most importantly, the system provides a sanctions-resistant financial channel. Since Western sanctions on Russia in 2022, many countries have recognized their vulnerability within the dollar-based system and begun searching for alternatives. China’s gold architecture now offers a practical option.

By linking the yuan to gold through these mechanisms, Beijing strengthens trust in yuan-based transactions without the need for a formal gold standard, allowing for gradual adoption rather than disruptive shocks to markets.

Gaining Influence Over Commodity Pricing

Through its gold policies, China also seeks to enhance its influence over the pricing of key commodities vital to its economy.

For years, China has been vulnerable to Western-dominated pricing systems, particularly for the massive volumes of resources it imports. By developing alternatives to COMEX and the LBMA, Beijing aims to gain greater sway over valuation.

The emphasis on physical delivery in Chinese exchanges allows for price discovery based on the real bullion market, unlike Western exchanges where paper contracts vastly exceed the volume of available gold, often distorting prices.

This approach reduces exposure to perceived “price manipulation,” a frequent concern among Chinese officials and traders who argue that paper contracts are sometimes used to artificially cap prices. As a result, China gains both economic and strategic advantages in global commodity markets.

Integration with the Belt and Road Initiative

Gold plays a central role in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s massive infrastructure development program launched in 2013.

The new gold market infrastructure provides a reliable settlement mechanism for BRI partners who may be reluctant to increase exposure to dollar-denominated debt or assets. By offering gold as an alternative, China makes participation more attractive to nations seeking to reduce reliance on the Western financial system.

This framework offers an option beyond dollar-based financing for infrastructure, while also strengthening economic ties between China and resource-rich countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

By building alternative financial channels, China deepens its economic ties with these nations while reducing its own reliance on Western systems — bolstering its long-term security and global economic influence.