The Canadian dollar fell against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, one day after a major energy sector acquisition that could have supported the Canadian currency, and ahead of a fiscal update from Prime Minister Mark Carney's government.

The Canadian dollar dropped 0.4% to 1.3680 CAD per U.S. dollar, or 73.10 U.S. cents, after moving within a range between 1.3614 and 1.3691. On Monday, it had recorded its highest level in nearly seven weeks at 1.3595.

Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret, strategists at Scotiabank, noted that news of mergers and acquisitions may have supported the Canadian dollar yesterday, but had less impact today as it declined alongside its major currency peers.

On Monday, the British company Shell announced it had agreed to purchase the Canadian energy firm ARC Resources in a deal valued at 16.4 billion dollars. Analysts viewed this as a significant confirmation of the Canadian energy sector's attractiveness as an investment destination, particularly given what they described as the Canadian government's trend toward supporting growth in the sector.

The Canadian fiscal update, expected after 4 p.m. ET (2000 GMT), is anticipated to show an improvement in the budget deficit and higher revenues for the past fiscal year. However, economists expect that gains from rising oil prices may have been partially offset by weak consumer spending and new government spending measures.

The Canadian real estate market continues its longest decline in decades, putting pressure on household spending, although the local stock market sitting at record levels has helped create additional wealth estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars.

In currency markets, the U.S. dollar rose against a basket of major currencies as investors focused on central bank decisions. Both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada are expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

Additionally, the price of oil, one of Canada's most important exports, rose 3.4% to 99.61 dollars per barrel as efforts to end the war in Iran continue to stall, keeping the Strait of Hormuz largely closed. Conversely, the United Arab Emirates announced it would leave OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance, which eased some supply-related concerns.

In bond markets, Canadian yields rose across the curve, tracking their U.S. counterparts. The 10-year yield rose by 2.7 basis points to reach 3.530%, after earlier touching its highest level since April 7 at 3.546%.

The global financial markets are currently living through what could be termed a “Wile E. Coyote moment,” a reference to the classic Warner Bros. "Road Runner" cartoons. In this series, a coyote chases a fast bird and inevitably runs off the edge of a cliff, remains suspended in mid-air for a moment, and then looks down only to plummet sharply.

This analogy is relevant because, last week, we witnessed the first public admission that fear is beginning to creep into the minds of monetary policymakers due to the conflict in Iran. The United Arab Emirates requested that the United States open a currency swap line, which is essentially a dollar loan against collateral in its local currency.

I believe this event could be the start of a wave of financial panic that will spread through the global financial system in the coming weeks—a wave that will bring various markets back into alignment with physical reality. This physical reality consists of a serious and persistent energy shortage and devastated supply chains that continue to worsen as Iran prevents the exit of vital energy and chemical supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, except for those that serve its own interests.

The UAE government asserts that its need for this line is not a sign of financial distress but merely a precautionary measure. In reality, however, this reflects that the pressures are genuine and perhaps worsening in other Gulf states without being publicly announced at this time. The UAE government and its companies are receiving far fewer dollars today because the war with Iran has disrupted oil exports and weakened tourism and foreign labor flows; yet, there are still debts and expenses that must be paid, many of which must be settled in dollars. It is likely that the same pressures exist in the rest of the Gulf, even if they have not yet requested assistance.

We are told (repeatedly) by President Donald Trump that the conflict with Iran will end very soon. But this “soon” has turned into weeks and then months. To explain why this conflict is so difficult to resolve, one could refer to lengthy analyses, but the bottom line is that we are facing what resembles a “three-body problem” in physics, where the conflicting parties have opposing demands that cannot be reconciled in practice.

The three main parties—the United States, Israel, and Iran—are not close to any agreement. Although the United States and Israel are supposedly in the same camp, there are differences in vision between them. Then there are the other Gulf states, along with major powers like Russia and China. The three-body problem in physics is unsolvable. Similarly, this multilateral geopolitical problem appears unsolvable as well. As long as there is no agreement, it is likely that Iran will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz, severely restricting the flow of energy and essential materials from the Gulf.

Global financial market participants seem to be in deep denial of this reality. They should look at the UAE's request for a currency swap line as a warning signal. In fact, some consider this line a financial bailout because, given the rapid deterioration of the UAE economy, it is not certain that the value of the dirham provided as collateral against the dollar will be equal upon future re-exchange, as is customary in these operations.

Governments have the ability to create money and help each other when there is a malfunction in the global distribution of currencies. But companies must get their money from customers, and when they cannot sell their products—such as oil and gas—because they are not being delivered at all, they do not receive revenue.

As is well known, it is not just about energy; Gulf exports also include huge quantities of fertilizers, petrochemicals, and helium. Helium is an essential element in the semiconductor industry and in the operation of MRI machines in hospitals. I have calculated that the current decrease in oil and gas supplies is equivalent to a loss of about 4.5% of total global energy, which means, given the economy's total dependence on energy, a loss of nearly 4% of global economic activity. For comparison, the U.S. economy contracted by 4.3% from the start of the Great Recession to its trough.

However, major disruptions in the supply of energy and essential materials mean much broader impacts extending across global supply chains, turning rising prices into actual shortages of goods. This suggests that economic activity may be suffering (or is already suffering) more damage than just the loss of energy, and perhaps greater than the impact of the Great Recession itself.

If this “multilateral geopolitical problem” I described is not resolved, I expect markets to move much more sharply in the coming weeks than they have so far: oil will rise strongly and stocks will fall sharply, as the fear felt by some central banks in the Gulf now transfers to global investors. This would be an unwelcome outcome if it occurs, but it would merely be a resetting of financial prices to align with the ongoing physical reality.

I assume that comprehensive solutions may soon be reached between the parties, and the Strait of Hormuz reopened to all shipping traffic. Indeed, the financial media is now full of talk about investors “looking past” this crisis in the Gulf. But I think most new financial journalists probably haven't watched “Road Runner” cartoons and therefore don't realize that what they are “looking past” might actually be the edge of a cliff.

Note: If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and financial markets stay high without impact, it will convince me that markets have become completely and permanently disconnected from physical reality. Does this seem like a possible scenario?

Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) recorded a stronger performance as spot prices rose significantly, and short-term contracts recovered from the previous session's losses, while long-term contracts and inventories continued their downward trend.

The spot cash bid price for aluminum rose from 3,641.5 dollars per ton on April 23 to 3,683 dollars per ton on April 24, an increase of 1.14%. Similarly, the spot cash offer price climbed from 3,642 dollars to 3,685 dollars per ton, recording a daily increase of 1.18%.

Three-month contracts followed the same path, as both the bid and offer prices rose by 0.28%. The bid price increased from 3,588 dollars per ton to 3,598 dollars, while the offer price rose from 3,590 dollars to 3,600 dollars per ton.

In contrast to this recovery in spot and short-term prices, long-term contracts continued to decline. Both the bid and offer prices for December 2027 contracts fell by 1.18% at the close, with the bid price dropping from 3,135 dollars per ton to 3,098 dollars, and the offer price falling from 3,140 dollars to 3,103 dollars per ton.

The LME aluminum three-month Asian Reference Price was recorded at 3,591 dollars per ton on April 24, compared to 3,620 dollars the previous day, a decrease of 0.8%.

On the inventory front, opening stocks of aluminum on the London exchange fell to 378,825 tons on April 24, compared to 381,050 tons on April 23, a decline of 0.58%. Live warrants remained stable at 335,000 tons, while cancelled warrants decreased to 43,825 tons from 41,275 tons, recording a decline of 5.82%.

Meanwhile, the alumina price according to the Platts index stabilized at 307.5 dollars per ton, down from 308.69 dollars in the previous session, a decrease of 0.39%.

Bitcoin is currently testing the upper boundary of a two-month ascending channel near the 77,500 dollar level, at a time when the MACD indicator on the four-hour timeframe is shifting into negative territory. Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on April 28 and 29 stands as the next major catalyst for the markets. This report reviews the technical structure, key levels, and on-chain data defining the currency's next direction.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately 76,863 dollars on April 27, up by less than 1% during the session, after temporarily touching 77,067 dollars during Asian trading. The currency has surged by about 30% since the February lows near 59,000 dollars within a well-defined ascending channel, but it is now testing the upper limit of this technical pattern. This coincides with MACD momentum turning negative, creating a state of directional tension that the Federal Reserve meeting may resolve.

The Ascending Channel Reaches a Decisive Point

The four-hour chart shows Bitcoin moving within a textbook ascending channel defined by two parallel upward-sloping lines since the February lows. This pattern has produced a series of higher highs and higher lows, with the price currently reaching the upper boundary near 77,500 dollars—a level that halted upward movement in previous attempts.

Moving averages remain in a positive configuration, with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 77,691 dollars, the 50-day at 77,204, the 100-day at 75,721, and the 200-day at 72,145. All are positioned below the current price, a setup that supports the uptrend.

However, the MACD indicator is flashing a warning sign, recording a negative histogram reading at the channel's upper boundary. This suggests a slowing of bullish momentum rather than an acceleration. In previous instances, this pattern paved the way for a period of consolidation or a brief pullback rather than an immediate breakout.

Key Levels: Support, Resistance, and Targets

Immediate resistance lies at the upper boundary of the channel between 77,500 and 78,000 dollars, the same range that capped gains during a previous test in April. Above this level, the 80,000 dollar barrier is the primary target for the bullish scenario. A close above it, accompanied by an increase in trading volume, could open the way toward the 200-day moving average near 85,000 dollars—a level viewed as the dividing line between the current corrective trend and the start of a clear bullish reversal.

On the downside, the 100-day moving average at 75,721 dollars represents the first significant support level. A break below this level on a closing basis could push the price toward the lower boundary of the channel between 72,000 and 73,000 dollars, where it intersects with the 200-day moving average. A daily close below this area would invalidate the ascending channel model and shift the outlook to bearish.

ETF Flows and Derivatives Positions

The ascent toward the upper boundary of the channel has been supported by strong institutional flows. Bitcoin ETFs recorded eight consecutive days of inflows totaling 2.43 billion dollars as of April 23, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust capturing approximately 907.97 million dollars in a single week.

Despite this support, on-chain data indicates that short-term investors are utilizing these flows as exit liquidity at levels between 78,000 and 80,100 dollars—levels that have limited gains multiple times during 2026. Additionally, open interest in futures contracts fell by more than 6% during the last test of the 78,000 dollar level, indicating position liquidation rather than the building of new long positions.

The Fed Meeting as a Decisive Catalyst

The FOMC meeting represents the most critical factor in determining the next direction. Expectations point to a 98% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged, making Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s tone the decisive factor.

If the statements lean toward monetary easing and hint at future rate cuts, it could support a breakout above the 80,000 dollar level. However, if the tone is neutral or hawkish, consolidation within the channel or a pullback toward support levels is more likely.

If Bitcoin successfully maintains the ascending channel and breaks 80,000 dollars supported by the Fed meeting results, the 85,000 dollar level will be the next station to test a clear trend shift.