The Japanese yen rose on Monday, supported by comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who hinted at a possible rate hike in December, while the dollar came under pressure as investors intensified their bets on a Federal Reserve cut this month.

Ueda said on Monday that the central bank will examine the “pros and cons” of raising interest rates at its upcoming December meeting, marking the strongest signal so far that a hike is possible this month. He added during a press conference that he will provide clearer guidance on the future rate-hike path once the policy rate reaches 0.75%, noting that the December decision will take into account wage data and other economic indicators.

These comments pushed the yen higher, sending the dollar down 0.4% to 155.51 yen.

Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC, said the stance “looks like preparation for a potential hike, making a December or January move a strong possibility,” and expects the BoJ to act this month. He added: “The question is whether this hike will be followed by another long pause. A stronger yen recovery will require firmer forward guidance.”

Traders raised the probability of a December hike after the yen fell last month to its weakest level in 10 months, intensifying pressure on the central bank to begin its tightening cycle.

Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG, said: “These remarks are the clearest signal yet that the BoJ is preparing to resume rate hikes this month, which aligns with our expectations. However, market participants remain cautious about fully pricing in an early move due to potential government resistance.”

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Sunday that the yen’s recent sharp swings and rapid weakening “do not clearly reflect fundamentals.”

Dollar weakness

Across broader markets, the dollar retreated as investors entered a critical month that could include the final rate cut of the year from the Federal Reserve, along with the potential confirmation of a more dovish successor to Chair Jerome Powell.

The euro climbed to a two-week high at $1.16155, while the British pound eased 0.2% to $1.3211 after recording its best week in more than three months, supported by renewed optimism following UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ budget announcement.

Markets are now pricing an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at next week’s Fed meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

What happens after December remains uncertain. Markets currently see limited chances of another cut before spring, while some analysts argue the December move could be a “hawkish cut” — a reduction accompanied by messaging that further easing is unlikely in the near term.

With investors assuming a December cut is almost guaranteed — and after a report indicating that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett may become the next Fed chair — the dollar continues to weaken, following its worst weekly performance in four months against a basket of major currencies.

Economists at Goldman Sachs wrote: “With the December meeting nearly fully priced for a 25-basis-point cut, we think attention will shift more toward the first-quarter meetings.” They added: “Division within the committee limits expectations for additional easing, but with a significant amount of labor-market data arriving before January, we believe markets are underpricing the odds of another cut in Q1.”

FX markets also returned to normal on Monday after a multi-hour outage last week on CME Group’s platform disrupted trading across stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies.

Bitcoin fell 5.7% to $85,949, while Ethereum dropped 6.4% to $2,828.41.

Silver prices rose in European trading on Monday, extending gains for a sixth straight session and pushing further into record territory, as the metal moves closer to trading above $60 per ounce for the first time in history. The rally is driven by strong retail demand and growing concerns over market liquidity shortages.

This surge is also supported by a weaker US dollar, which fell to its lowest level in nearly three weeks against a basket of global currencies amid strong expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this December.

Price Overview

• Silver prices today: Silver rose 2.6% to $57.87 — a new all-time high — from an opening of $56.42, after touching an intraday low of $56.19.

• On Friday, silver settled 5.7% higher, marking five consecutive daily gains in line with broad strength across precious metals.

• Over November, silver gained 16%, its seventh consecutive monthly rise — the longest monthly winning streak on record.

Retail Demand

With retail investors seeking assets that can hedge against risks tied to a global shift toward more accommodative monetary policy, silver has emerged as a particularly attractive option, offering a lower-cost alternative to traditional safe-haven assets.

The current rally reflects a growing perception among retail traders that silver remains undervalued, especially when compared with gold, which is trading near its own record highs.

Bullish Outlook

Many analysts expect silver to continue its ascent within a strong bull market that could lift it to new all-time highs in the coming period.

Estimates suggest silver could trade above $60 per ounce for the first time ever before year-end, supported by rising retail demand and mounting concerns over tightening global liquidity.

US Dollar

The US dollar index fell 0.2% on Monday, deepening losses for a sixth straight session and hitting its lowest level in nearly three weeks, reflecting persistent weakness against major global currencies.

The decline follows a series of weak economic indicators and cautious commentary from Federal Reserve officials, which pushed expectations of a December rate cut sharply higher.

US Interest Rates

• Several Fed officials — including New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller — indicated that policy easing in December may be warranted due to labor-market weakness.

• Kevin Hassett, now viewed as the leading contender to succeed Jerome Powell, said interest rates “should be lower.”

• According to CME’s FedWatch Tool:

– The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December stands at 87%.

– The probability of holding rates unchanged is 13%.

• Investors will closely track additional US economic data releases this week to reassess these expectations.

Gold prices rose in European trading on Monday, extending gains for a second consecutive session and reaching a six-week high, supported by strong safe-haven demand and a weaker US dollar in the foreign-exchange market.

Despite strong expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this December, investors are awaiting additional key US economic data.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold rose 0.9% to 4,256.52 — the highest level since 21 October — from an opening of 4,218.00, after recording an intraday low of 4,205.73.

• On Friday, gold settled 1.5% higher, marking its second gain in three sessions, supported by weakness in the US dollar.

• Over November, gold gained 5.4%, its fourth straight monthly advance, driven by strong safe-haven demand amid persistent global uncertainty.

US Dollar

The US dollar index fell around 0.2% on Monday, deepening losses for a sixth straight session and hitting a two-week low, reflecting continued pressure on the greenback against major global currencies.

This decline followed a series of weak US economic data releases and cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials, which pushed rate-cut expectations for December sharply higher.

US Interest Rates

• Several Fed officials — including New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller — signaled that policy easing in December could be justified due to labor-market weakness.

• Kevin Hassett, now considered the leading contender to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, said rates “should be lower.”

• According to CME’s FedWatch Tool:

– The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December stands at 87%.

– The probability of holding rates steady is at 13%.

• Investors will closely monitor upcoming US economic releases this week for further clarity on the Fed’s path.

Gold Outlook

Kelvin Wong, market analyst for Asia-Pacific at Oanda, said risk-off sentiment is dominating US stock-index futures — down 0.8% — in line with heavy selling across major cryptocurrencies. This created a positive feedback loop for gold as a safe-haven asset, especially during a low-liquidity trading session.

SPDR

Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, were unchanged on Friday for a second day, with total holdings steady at 1,045.43 metric tons — the highest level since 13 November.

The euro jumped in European trading on Monday to its highest level in two weeks against the US dollar, supported by continued weakness in the US currency as markets price in a Federal Reserve rate cut this December.

Amid ongoing uncertainty over the likelihood of a European rate cut next month, investors are awaiting Tuesday’s release of key eurozone inflation data for November, seeking stronger signals on the European Central Bank’s potential path toward policy easing.

Price overview

• EUR/USD today: The euro rose about 0.2% to $1.1616, the highest since 17 November, up from an opening price of $1.1596. The session low was $1.1589.

• The euro ended Friday’s session flat against the dollar for a second consecutive day.

• Over November, the euro gained 0.5% against the dollar, marking its third monthly rise in the past four months, supported by the ECB’s hawkish stance.

US dollar

The US Dollar Index fell around 0.2% on Monday, deepening losses for a sixth straight session and hitting a two-week low, reflecting persistent declines in the US currency against a basket of global peers.

A run of weak economic data and cautious commentary from Federal Reserve officials has driven expectations higher for a US rate cut in December, with markets waiting for additional American labor-market data due this week.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, versus a 13% chance of no change.

European rates

• Money markets are pricing around a 25% probability of a 25-basis-point European Central Bank rate cut in December.

• Investors will look to tomorrow’s key eurozone inflation reading for clearer evidence on the ECB’s policy outlook and the likely direction of monetary easing in the euro area.