The White House confirmed on Monday that Nvidia and AMD have reached an agreement to share 15% of their revenue from sales to China with the US government, a move that has sparked debate over its potential impact on the two chipmaking giants and whether Washington might pursue similar deals with other companies.

Under the agreement, the companies will receive export licenses to sell Nvidia’s H20 chips and AMD’s MI308 chips in China, according to the Financial Times.

In a statement to NBC News, Nvidia said: “We follow the rules set by the US government for our participation in global markets. While we have not shipped the H20 to China for months, we hope export control rules will allow us to compete with China both domestically and globally. America cannot repeat the 5G mistake and lose its leadership in communications. US technology infrastructure in AI can be the global standard if we compete.”

AMD confirmed in a statement that its initial export license applications for MI308 chips to China had been approved.

Analysts speaking to CNBC described these arrangements, set by President Donald Trump’s administration, as “unusual,” but reflective of the current White House’s transactional nature. Investors generally view the step as positive for both companies, as it secures renewed access to the Chinese market.

Impact on Nvidia and AMD

The H20 chip from Nvidia was designed specifically to meet US export requirements for China and was previously banned under export restrictions, but the company announced last month it expected to receive licenses to ship the product to China.

In July, AMD also said it would resume exports of MI308 chips. At that time, there was no indication that resuming sales to China would be conditional or tied to a revenue share, and markets welcomed the move as reopening a multi-billion-dollar sales opportunity.

Despite both companies’ shares closing slightly lower on Monday, Ben Barringer, global technology analyst at Quilter Cheviot, told CNBC: “From an investor’s perspective, the outcome remains positive – getting 85% of the revenue is better than nothing. The question is whether Nvidia and AMD will raise their prices by 15% to offset the levy, but ultimately it’s better to sell in the market than leave it entirely to Huawei,” their closest Chinese competitor.

However, uncertainty remains over their long-term future. George Chen, co-chair of digital practice at The Asia Group, said: “In the short term, the agreement gives both companies some certainty over their exports to China. In the long term, we don’t know whether the US government will seek a larger share of their China business, especially if their sales there continue to grow.”

Analysts told CNBC the deal is “unusual” but consistent with Trump’s style. Barringer said: “It’s a good but strange move, the sort you’d expect from President Trump, who is at heart a dealmaker. He’s willing to compromise – but only if he gets something in return, and that sets an unusual precedent.”

Neil Shah, a partner at Counterpoint Research, described the revenue share as “an indirect tariff at the source.” Daniel Newman, CEO of The Futurum Group, wrote on X that the move resembled “a tax” on doing business in China.

Other analysts believe such deals are unlikely to extend to other companies. Nick Patience, head of AI at The Futurum Group, said: “I don’t expect it to extend to other sectors equally critical to the US economy, such as software and services.”

The US views the semiconductor industry as a strategic technology, forming the backbone of many other tools such as AI, consumer electronics, and even military applications. This is why Washington has placed chips under an export control regime unlike any other product. Chen from The Asia Group said: “The semiconductor industry is unique, and the pay-to-enter approach may work in Nvidia and AMD’s case because it’s essentially about getting US government export approval. For companies like Apple and Meta, the situation is more complicated given the nature of their business models and services in China.”

How Might China Respond?

Semiconductors have become a highly sensitive geopolitical topic. Over the past two weeks, China has expressed concern over the security of Nvidia chips.

Late last month, Chinese regulators asked Nvidia to “clarify” reports of potential security vulnerabilities and “backdoors.” Nvidia denied the existence of any backdoors granting access or control over its chips. More recently, the company again denied backdoors in its H20 chips after allegations from a social media account linked to Chinese state media.

Trump’s deal with Nvidia and AMD is likely to elicit mixed reactions in China – Beijing will be displeased with the arrangement, but Chinese companies will still seek to acquire these chips to advance their AI ambitions. Shah from Counterpoint Research said: “For China, it’s a dilemma – it needs these chips to boost its AI ambitions, but the US revenue levy could make them more expensive, and there are concerns about US backdoors, especially as Washington has approved supplying these chips to Chinese companies.”

US stock indices rose during Tuesday’s trading as markets assessed last month’s inflation data and its impact on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Government data revealed that the annual growth rate of the US consumer price index held steady at 2.7% in July, below expectations for an increase to 2.8%.

Core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – rose to 3.1% in July, higher than expectations of a 3% increase, and compared to 2.9% in June.

According to the FedWatch tool, investors now see a 94% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, compared to 86% yesterday and 57% a month ago.

Analysts also project a 61% probability of another 25-basis-point cut in October, compared to 34% a month ago, along with a 51% probability of a similar cut in December, compared to 25% a month ago.

As for trading, by 16:52 GMT the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% (450 points) to 44,415 points, the broader S&P 500 gained 0.8% (51 points) to 6,424 points, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.9% (198 points) to 21,583 points.

Palladium prices fell on Tuesday as markets closely watched the talks to be held later this week between the Presidents of the United States and Russia.

US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in direct talks on Friday in the US state of Alaska to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.

UBS this week raised its palladium price forecasts by $100 per ounce across all timeframes, citing expectations of lower output from Canadian mines.

However, the banking group still maintains a bearish outlook on the metal due to weak demand from the automotive sector.

UBS said in a note to clients: “After platinum, palladium is the second-best performing precious metal this year, having risen by 37%.” It added that “concerns about supply disruptions and short covering activity may have contributed to the rise in the metal’s price.”

Bank analysts highlighted a rally driven by short covering in the futures markets, as non-commercial short positions fell from 1.9 million ounces in April to 1.1 million ounces, while long positions rose slightly to more than 0.9 million ounces.

They explained: “Positions remain in a slightly net short position, far from the extreme short level that approached 1.1 million ounces.”

The bank also pointed out that geopolitical risks and supply factors are contributing to increased price volatility, noting that “US President Donald Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on buyers of goods coming from Russia,” the world’s largest producer of palladium.

Concerns have also grown about potential tariffs on South Africa, the second-largest producer, according to the bank.

At the same time, analysts noted that Implats Canada announced plans to halt production at the Lac des Iles mine by May 2026, which currently supplies the market with about 0.2–0.25 million ounces annually.

Despite these supply concerns, UBS warned that palladium remains a high-risk asset, saying: “Only investors with a high risk tolerance should consider trading palladium, given its low trading volume and small market size.”

The group expects challenges to persist, noting that “more than 80% of demand for palladium comes from its use in gasoline-powered vehicles,” while US auto production remains under pressure from tariffs.

On the other hand, the US dollar index fell by 0.5% to 98.05 points at 16:35 GMT, after recording a high of 98.6 points and a low of 98.1 points.

In trading, palladium futures for September delivery fell by 1.6% to $1,140.5 per ounce at 16:35 GMT.

Bitcoin prices fell on Tuesday, giving up most of the gains made over the weekend as risk appetite cooled amid anticipation of key US inflation data, largely erasing optimism over prospects for more favorable cryptocurrency regulation in the United States.

Buying by Metaplanet, the sixth-largest institutional holder of the cryptocurrency, failed to spur prices, while other alternative coins also halted their rallies after strong weekend gains.

Bitcoin dropped 2.8% to $118,630.4 by 1:31 a.m. ET (05:31 GMT).

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies retreat as CPI data takes center stage

The US annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.7%, compared with economists’ estimates of 2.8%. The Core CPI, which excludes highly volatile sectors such as energy and food, registered 3.1%, beating forecasts by 0.1 percentage point.

Analysts see the data as a positive signal for crypto market bulls, as it may prompt the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its upcoming September Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The Fed targets a healthy inflation rate of around 2%, and the latest figures have been edging closer to that level in recent months.

It is worth noting that CPI figures are not the only factor the Fed considers when deciding on a possible rate cut; the latest US jobs report showed the economy weaker than expected, increasing the likelihood of lowering the benchmark rate.

Indeed, Bitcoin (BTC) reacted positively to the CPI release, briefly climbing above $119,000, while Ethereum (ETH) performed even better, rising to $4,350.

Metaplanet buys an additional 518 Bitcoin

Metaplanet Inc (Tokyo Stock Exchange: 3350) announced on Tuesday the purchase of 518 additional Bitcoin, bringing the Japanese hospitality company-turned-crypto investment treasury’s total holdings to 118,113 BTC.

The deal was valued at $61.4 million, at an average price of $118,519 per coin. The latest acquisition follows Metaplanet’s earlier announcement of a plan to raise $3.7 billion through a share issuance, with the primary goal of purchasing more Bitcoin.

The company now holds approximately $1.85 billion worth of Bitcoin, after accelerating its buying spree over the past year.

This strategy closely mirrors that of Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy, which has relied on several large stock offerings to fund its Bitcoin purchases. MicroStrategy remains the largest institutional holder of the cryptocurrency globally, reaping substantial gains in both valuation and holdings as Bitcoin prices surged over the past year.

Whale wallets hit record high as price momentum accelerates

Data from Bitcoin Magazine Pro showed that around 19,000 individual wallet addresses now hold at least 100 Bitcoin, marking a new record.

This milestone indicates that large holders – known as “whales” – continue to build their positions even with Bitcoin trading near all-time highs. Historically, an increase in whale wallet counts has been linked to greater confidence in long-term price growth and a willingness to hold through market volatility.

This accumulation extends a trend that began in early 2024, when the number of addresses holding over 100 Bitcoin was around 16,000, surpassing 18,500 by mid-2025 before breaking the 19,000 mark this month.

Analysts note that such accumulation often precedes “supply squeeze” conditions in the market, as the number of actively traded coins diminishes. While retail traders typically chase short-term gains, whales tend to buy during dips and hold through market cycles – a strategy that has proven effective in past bull runs.

With Bitcoin’s price rising alongside greater concentration of holdings among whales, the market may be on the verge of entering a new phase of supply scarcity and heightened competition for coins.