US GDP shrank 1.5% in the first quarter of the year, missing estimates of 1.3%, while analysts expected a 1.3% decline, after a 6.9% rise in the fourth quarter of 2021. 

Oil prices rose in European trade for the sixth straight session on global supply shortages as the European Union seeks to ban Russian oil supplies, while US crude stocks declined as well last week. 

Prices

US crude rose 1% to $111.73 a barrel, while Brent added 0.7% to $114.97 a barrel. 

US crude added 0.4% on Wednesday, as Brent climbed 0.5%, the fifth profit in a row on rising demand in China and the US. 

Global Supplies

Supplies are continuously challenged worldwide with strategic inventories tumbling as well. 

And that comes as demand rebounds in China with major cities returning online once more after a prolonged shutdown for Covid 19 control. 

Russian Supplies

All eyes are focused now on the European Union summit held next week, at which European countries will attempt to ban Russian oil supplies once more. 

US Stocks

Official US data showed crude stocks fell a million barrels to 419.8 million barrels last week, while analysts expected a drop of 2.2 million barrels.

Gasoline stocks fell 0.5 million barrels to 219.7 million, while distillate stocks rose 1.7 million barrels to 106.9 million barrels.

Dollar declined in European trade against major rivals, resuming the losses after a short recovery from four-week lows, ahead of important US growth data, expected to show a recession in the first quarter. 

The Index

The dollar index fell 0.25% on Thursday to 101.77, with a session-high at 102.27. 

The index rose 0.35% yesterday, the first profit in three sessions away from four-week lows at 101.65. 

The Fed 

The minutes for the May 3-4 meeting showed strong commitment to combat inflation and tighten monetary policies to neutrality. 

The Fed is indeed preparing for two 0.5% rate hikes in the next two meetings to increase rates to 2.0%.

From the US, GDP is expected to contract by 1.3% in the first quarter, compared to a 7% expansion in the previous quarter.

US unemployment claims are expected down a thousand to 217 thousand in the week ending May 21, while continuing claims are expected down 7 thousand to 1.31 million.

US existing home sales are expected down 1.9% in April, compared to a 1.2% drop in March.

Recession

Continued recession is feared to change the path of policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, in turn hurting dollar's standing against major rivals. 

Gold prices declined in European trade for another session off two-week highs on active profit-taking, while dollar edges up against major rivals amid prospects for Fed policy tightening. 

Gold declined 0.55% to $1,842 an ounce, with a session-high at $1,855, after losing 0.7% yesterday, the first loss in six days on profit-taking off highs at $1,869.

The Dollar

The dollar index rose 0.1% on Thursday for another session against major rivals following the latest Fed's meeting minutes. 

The Fed

The minutes for the May 3-4 meeting showed strong commitment to combat inflation and tighten monetary policies to neutrality. 

The Fed is indeed preparing for two 0.5% rate hikes in the next two meetings to increase rates to 2.0%.

Estimates

Such a rapid pace of policy tightening is expected to weigh on gold prices, with analysts expecting prices to slide to $1,820 an ounce as dollar strengthens. 

The SPDR 

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust rose 1.74 tones yesterday to a total of 1,069 tones, a May 9 high.