The US dollar held broadly steady against most major currencies on Tuesday, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing monitoring of key trade policy developments.

In a statement to CNBC today, the US president said that planned tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals could eventually reach as high as 250%.

Data released Tuesday by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the US services PMI fell to 50.1 points, down from 50.8 in June.

Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to implement three consecutive interest rate cuts of 25 basis points starting in September, with the possibility of a 50-basis-point cut if the next jobs report shows a further rise in unemployment.

The firm also believes that the European Central Bank (ECB) has already concluded its monetary easing cycle.

Meanwhile, economists have raised their growth forecasts for the Eurozone and Japan following what were described as moderate trade agreements, while noting that Friday’s US jobs report indicated the US economy is nearing a recession.

Elsewhere, analysts said that the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director on Friday, along with the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, could prompt the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adopt a firmer stance to protect its independence. They noted that Kugler’s replacement would hold only a single vote on the committee.

Interest rate cuts

Financial markets currently reflect a 92% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its upcoming September meeting, up from 63% a week ago. Markets are also pricing in a total of 130 basis points in rate cuts by October 2026 — 30 basis points more than the forecast prior to Friday’s US jobs data.

The Japanese yen declined by 0.14% to ¥147.3 per dollar, after minutes from the Bank of Japan’s June meeting showed that some board members said the central bank may reconsider interest rate hikes if trade tensions ease.

Attention remains focused on the uncertainty surrounding new tariffs, after President Trump last week imposed additional duties on imports from dozens of countries — a move that sparked concerns about global economic health.

As of 20:31 GMT, the US Dollar Index was steady at 98.8 points, having recorded a high of 99.07 and a low of 98.5.

Australian dollar

The Australian dollar held steady against its US counterpart at 0.647 as of 20:46 GMT.

Canadian dollar

The Canadian dollar also held steady against the US dollar at 0.7255 as of 20:46 GMT.

President Donald Trump was furious about the July jobs report, which pointed to a significant economic slowdown, when he resurfaced an old grievance: the statistician responsible for compiling the monthly numbers had been appointed by former President Joe Biden.

Unlike Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell — whom Trump had criticized for months — the president has the authority to dismiss the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). So, he did just that last Friday — an unprecedented move that sparked the latest White House controversy and raised concerns about the politicization of government economic data.

“I was thinking about it this morning, before the numbers came out,” Trump told reporters Friday. “I said: ‘Who’s the person that puts these numbers together?’”

That person, whom Trump abruptly made a household name by firing her publicly, is Erica McEnturfer.

While some of the president’s economic advisors sought to provide context for the disappointing July report — and the sharp downward revisions to May and June figures signaling a slowdown in hiring — it was the view of Sergio Gor, head of presidential employment affairs and a top Trump loyalist, that resonated most: she was a Biden appointee.

Sources familiar with the dismissal said Trump had previously expressed frustration that such a critical data-producing agency was led by someone appointed by his predecessor. That alone, they said, had bothered him, but until Friday, he didn’t see a clear justification for removing her.

That changed after Friday’s report, when Trump informed several top advisors that he wanted McEnturfer fired. According to two White House officials, no one objected to the decision.

“She’s gone,” Trump told reporters. “And you know what? I did the right thing.”

The latest attempt to undermine facts

With that, a new conspiracy theory was born in the White House, as Trump claimed — without evidence — that McEnturfer had "manipulated" the monthly jobs report.

McEnturfer, who did not respond to requests for comment, had spent decades as a government statistician at the Census Bureau and other federal institutions, specializing in labor market and economic data. In a speech this January at the Atlanta Economic Club, she emphasized the importance of timely economic data.

“I’ve long been interested in measuring economic indicators,” she said. “But like anyone who has lived through the past five years, I’ve come to value timely and reliable economic data even more.”

Her firing became the latest example of Trump’s efforts to discredit facts that clash with his political narrative — or to remove the officials responsible for producing them. Largely absent from the uproar was any serious discussion of the actual state of the US labor market, which is showing warning signs amid uncertainty fueled by Trump’s tariffs.

Trump’s decision drew immediate condemnation from economists across the political spectrum, who called the move “damaging,” “authoritarian,” and “banana republic-style.”

William Beach, whom Trump appointed during his first term to lead the BLS, said: “I don’t believe there’s any basis for this firing. It harms the statistical system and undermines trust in the office.”

Officials said what angered Trump most about the report were the large downward revisions to previous months — which he publicly claimed, without proof, were politically motivated.

A White House official told CNN: “That’s what set him off. He saw the revisions and knew something was wrong — that they’d been changed that sharply. And this isn’t the first time. Given how many companies base decisions on this data, it’s something that needs fixing.”

But contrary to Trump’s insinuations, the revisions are not evidence of a political conspiracy. They are a standard part of the monthly jobs report process. When survey response rates are low, early estimates become more uncertain, so the BLS continues gathering payroll data after the report is released and updates the figures later.

Why is mcEnturfer different from Powell?

Earlier this year, Trump had privately discussed with aides whether he could fire Jerome Powell. His advisors warned him against it, citing not only questionable legality but also the broader implications for the economy, given Powell’s independence from the executive branch.

But many of those same officials told Trump that removing McEnturfer — who serves “at the pleasure of the president” — was legally justifiable, even if the BLS is traditionally considered a nonpartisan agency.

The White House sent officials to television networks to defend the decision, offering a range of explanations — none of which provided clear evidence for Trump’s claim that the numbers were “fake” or “manipulated” to make him look bad.

On Sunday, Trump said he would name a new commissioner to lead the bureau within days, referring to the role as “the statistician.” He did not explain how this new appointee would address what his team sees as flaws in the way employment data is gathered and compiled.

BLS leaders are typically drawn from government agencies, research institutions, or universities, and are rarely well-known figures before or during their tenure.

Officials said Trump is seeking someone “highly qualified” to take the role and “modernize” the bureau’s methods — but any nominee is expected to face intense scrutiny during the Senate confirmation process. Even some Republicans have expressed concerns over the sudden firing.

As of Monday, Trump had not made a final decision on who would replace McEnturfer, according to a senior White House official. Top advisors expected to play a key role in the selection process include White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Scott Biscent, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

In a CNN “State of the Union” interview, William Beach warned that McEnturfer’s successor would struggle to gain credibility — even though Trump claims the goal is to restore trust in the data.

“Let’s say they appoint a new commissioner — man or woman — and they’re one of the best candidates possible. If bad numbers come out, people will assume it’s not as bad as it seems because they’ll expect political influence,” he said. “That’s damaging — and it’s not what we need right now.”

Domestic and international reactions

Trump’s decision didn’t appear to face broad internal opposition, though economists from both parties condemned the move, warning that it could erode confidence in vital economic statistics.

Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-Dreamer said in a Fox Business interview Monday: “It’s my duty to support the president on this, and I do. We have to assure the American people that they can trust this data. It’s influential — it moves markets and shapes investments.”

Just hours before Trump’s announcement on Friday, Chavez-Dreamer had stated that “the jobs report offers further proof that the American people are seeing real progress.”

Other members of the president’s economic team backed the decision. Many were quick to draw a connection between problems with jobs data and Powell’s decision to hold interest rates steady — something that has long frustrated Trump — arguing that Fed policymakers aren’t receiving accurate information.

In several interviews since Friday, Hassett claimed that partisan bias had crept into the jobs reports, though he provided no evidence. Speaking on Fox News, he said: “Data shouldn’t be propaganda” — but gave no details to support the idea that McEnturfer or any of the hundreds of statisticians at the agency had manipulated the numbers.

In another interview with CNBC on Monday, he implied the BLS had become just another institution entrenched in resistance to Trump.

“There are people all over the US government trying to resist Trump in every way they can,” he said.

Like many Trump administration officials, Hassett had spent the first Friday of each month touting the jobs reports, viewing consistent hiring gains as a sign of a strong economy. Trump himself had regularly posted online whenever the reports showed six-figure gains, never questioning the data when it reflected a healthy labor market.

In June, Trump posted about that month’s report: “Great jobs numbers — and the stock market is soaring! Billions in tariffs flowing in too!!” But after Friday’s dismal report, Trump ordered McEnturfer’s dismissal.

“… then there’s a problem”

The uproar over her firing subsided somewhat over the weekend, though several members of Congress voiced concerns before departing Washington for their summer recess.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, Republican of Wyoming, said: “If the president is firing the statistician because the numbers are unreliable, it’s good to know the reason. But if he’s firing her because he doesn’t like the numbers — even if they’re accurate — then that’s a problem.”

Economists and statisticians defended McEnturfer, stressing that her removal would create a troubling erosion of trust in critical economic data. In her January speech in Atlanta, she acknowledged the growing difficulties in preparing the monthly jobs report due to declining response rates from businesses and workers.

“Our goal at the Bureau of Labor Statistics is to modernize official statistics for the 21st century,” she said, “and to put them on a sustainable path for the future.”

Bitcoin moved only slightly on Tuesday, remaining largely within a narrow trading range amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade tariffs and global growth prospects, which kept traders cautious toward risk-linked assets.

In contrast, Ether outperformed bitcoin after 180 Life Sciences announced it had raised $425 million to establish an Ether-denominated asset treasury.

Broader cryptocurrency markets saw slight gains, but failed to significantly benefit from Wall Street’s strong performance during the previous night’s session.

Bitcoin held steady at $114,373.5 as of 12:57 a.m. Eastern Time (04:57 GMT). The world’s largest digital asset continues to struggle to make meaningful gains after hitting a record high in mid-July, keeping cryptocurrency prices locked in a narrow trading range.

Crypto markets posted steep losses last week as risk appetite waned, triggering a wave of profit-taking across the sector. Institutional bitcoin purchases also failed to support prices, despite fresh acquisitions by Metaplanet and Strategy.

Tariffs and economic fog weigh on bitcoin

Risk appetite remained subdued as markets faced growing signs of a US economic slowdown — particularly after nonfarm payroll data for July came in below expectations, along with sharp downward revisions to the previous two months' figures.

While this data bolstered expectations of a September interest rate cut, it offered little positive momentum for cryptocurrency markets, which showed minimal reaction to Wall Street’s overnight rebound.

Risk appetite was also broadly constrained by uncertainty over the economic impact of new tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, which are set to take effect this week.

On Monday, Trump threatened steep tariffs on India over its continued purchases of Russian oil — a move that sent the Indian rupee to record lows.

Oil prices held steady on Tuesday as traders weighed increased supply from the OPEC+ alliance and concerns over weakening global demand, against threats by US President Donald Trump targeting India’s purchases of Russian oil.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, effectively ending the latest round of output cuts earlier than previously planned.

Brent crude futures fell by 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.40 a barrel by 09:10 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures dropped 41 cents to $65.88. Both contracts had declined by more than 1% on Monday, settling at their lowest levels in a week.

On Monday, Trump renewed his threats to impose higher tariffs on Indian goods over the country’s continued imports of Russian oil. New Delhi called his comments "unjustified" and vowed to defend its economic interests, escalating trade tensions between the two countries.

John Evans of oil brokerage PVM wrote in a report that the limited reaction in oil prices following Trump’s threats suggests traders are skeptical about actual supply disruptions. He questioned whether Trump would risk pushing oil prices higher.

Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, commented: “The oil market can be described as stable,” adding, “this situation is likely to persist until we see what the US president announces about Russia later this week and how buyers respond.”

India remains the largest buyer of seaborne Russian oil, having imported around 1.75 million barrels per day between January and June this year — a 1% increase compared to the same period last year, according to data provided by traders to Reuters.

Trump’s threats come amid renewed concerns over global oil demand, with some analysts expecting a slowdown in economic growth during the second half of the year.

JPMorgan said on Tuesday that US recession risks remain elevated. Analysts also noted that the July meeting of China’s Communist Party Politburo showed a shift in focus toward structural rebalancing of the world’s second-largest economy, with no signs of further policy easing.