The US dollar fell in European trade on Monday against a basket of major rivals away from two-week highs, on track for the first loss in four days on profit-taking with demand tapering off. 

The risk sentiment improved in the markets after European leaders agreed on an emergency peace plan for Ukraine, and after calmer statements from Trump officials on upcoming tariffs. 

Now investors await important US manufacturing data later today, expected to provide fresh pricing to the odds of a Fed rate cut in upcoming months.

The Index

The dollar index fell 0.6% today to 106.95, with a session-high at 107.56.

On Friday, the index rose 0.25%, the third rise in a row, hitting a two-week high at 107.66 on rising concerns about Trump’s tariffs.

The dollar index snagged a strong 0.9% profit last week, the first weekly profit in a month.

European Peace Plan for Ukraine

An emergency European summit was held in London and attended by 18 European leaders, including Ukrainian president Volodomyr Zelensekiy, to show strong support to Ukraine and develop a peace deal to present to Washington.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said European leaders agreed on the items of the plan to support Kiev and achieve fair and lasting peace, while providing strong security guarantees.

Trump’s Tariffs 

The US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnik said on Sunday that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be implemented on Tuesday but President Trump will decide whether he’ll commit to the 25% rate.

US Rates

Recent US data showed consumer spending fell unexpectedly in January, reducing inflationary pressures on Fed’s policymakers.

Following the data and according to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a Fed 0.25% interest rate cut rose from 4.5% to 7%.

Now traders await important US industrial data later today, important for gauging US growth in the first quarter.

Silver prices rose in European trade on Monday for the first time in three sessions, thus starting to recover from three-week lows on short-covering. 

Prices are boosted by a weaker dollar and positive industrial data from China, which renewed hopes of a recovery in the world’s largest metals consumer.

Prices

Silver pisces rose 1.2% to $31.50 an ounce, with a session-low at $31.13.

On Friday, silver lost 0.45%, the second loss in a row, plumbing three-week lows at $30.82 an ounce as the dollar heaped pressure.

Silver tumbled 4.1% last week, the first weekly loss in a month and a half, and the heftiest in 2025 amid concerns about the trade war and its impact on the metals demand.

The Dollar

The dollar index fell 0.5% on Monday away from two-week highs at 107.66, about to mark the first loss in four sessions against a basket of major rivals. 

A weaker dollar makes greenback-denominated futures cheaper to holders of other currencies.

The dollar has also dipped after Europe presented Washington with an emergency peace deal for Ukraine, while the US Treasury Secretary spoke about potentially less than 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Chinese Demand

Earlier Beijing data showed China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in February from 50.1 in January, beating estimates of 50.4, and boosting hopes for higher demand on metals. 

The eurozone's consumer prices rose 2.4% y/y in February, above estimates of 2.3%, but still down from 2.5% in January.

Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 2.6%, above estimates of 2.5%, but down from 2.7% in January.

Gold prices rose in European trade on Monday for the first session in three days, recovering from three-week lows on short-covering as the dollar dipped against major rivals. 

Now investors await important US industrial data later today, expected to provide fresh pricing for the odds of a Fed rate cut in upcoming months.

Gold Prices

Gold prices rose 0.7% to $2876 an ounce, with a session-low at $2857.

On Friday, gold lost 0.65%, plumbing three-week lows at $2832 an ounce, as the dollar strengthened back then.

The precious metal lost 2.65% last week, the first weekly loss in 2025 on profit-taking away from a record high at $2856.

The Dollar

The dollar index fell 0.4% on Monday, away from a two-week high at 107.66, and about to mark the first loss in four sessions against major rivals.

The dollar has also dipped after Europe presented Washington with an emergency peace deal for Ukraine, while the US Treasury Secretary spoke about potentially less than 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

US Rates

Recent US data showed consumer spending fell unexpectedly in January, reducing inflationary pressures on Fed’s policymakers.

Following the data and according to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a Fed 0.25% interest rate cut rose from 4.5% to 7%.

Now traders await important US industrial data later today, important for gauging US growth in the first quarter.

SPDR

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust fell 1.72 tons to a total of 904.38 tons, away from 907.82 tons, the highest since August 2023.