US dollar declines as investors await Fed signals from Jackson Hall

The US dollar fell on Thursday as investors awaited monetary policy signals from the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium, while concerns over central bank independence resurfaced following the latest attack from President Donald Trump.

The euro and the pound steadied at $1.1652 and $1.3451 respectively, while the yen and the Swiss franc posted minor losses.

Odds of a Fed rate cut next month eased slightly to 82%, offering limited support to the dollar. Focus remained on whether Chair Jerome Powell would counter market expectations for a September cut in his speech on Friday.

Kenneth Broux, head of corporate FX and rates research at Société Générale, said: “The risks are skewed. Because the market has already priced in a cut, the danger is reverting back to a 50-50 scenario.” He noted this could trigger selling in short-dated Treasuries and push the dollar higher.

Meanwhile, Trump’s call for Fed Governor Lisa Cook to resign — based on allegations from a political ally — revived investor worries over his attempts to influence the central bank. Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for being “too slow” to cut rates, and urged his resignation, while admitting that the Fed’s unique legal structure prevents firing board members over policy disputes.

Prashant Newnaha, senior APAC rates strategist at TD Securities, said: “These developments could raise questions about the Fed’s supervisory and regulatory functions, but they carry almost no immediate impact on monetary policy.” He added this explained the relatively calm FX reaction, as the dollar initially slipped before trimming losses and moving higher.

Investors expect Trump to replace Powell, whose term ends in May, with a more dovish candidate. Earlier this month, Trump announced he would nominate Council of Economic Advisers chair Steven Miran to fill a vacant Fed seat after Adriana Kugler’s surprise resignation.

The dollar index rose 0.1% to 98.337, set for a 0.4% weekly gain. The 10-year Treasury yield inched up to 4.30%, while the 2-year yield, more sensitive to policy, edged higher to 3.756%.

Some analysts cautioned markets may be disappointed by Powell’s speech on Friday, highlighting lingering uncertainty over the inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs.

Elsewhere, Norway’s krone rose 0.4% versus the dollar and 0.5% versus the euro after stronger-than-expected non-oil GDP growth in Q2, alongside an upward revision to Q1 data.

In China, investor bets against the yuan climbed to their highest since mid-May, fueled by rising economic concerns, according to a Reuters survey released Thursday.

In crypto markets, Bitcoin slipped 0.6% to $113,741, while Ether dropped 1.6% to $4,285.89.