The US dollar fell against most major currencies on Tuesday as markets monitored progress toward ending the government shutdown and digested weak employment data that raised concerns about the health of the labor market in the world’s largest economy.

Data released by ADP showed that the US private sector lost an average of 11,250 jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 25.

Federal Reserve member Steven Miran reiterated on Monday his call for further interest rate cuts to help prevent a potential future slowdown.

In an interview with CNBC, Miran maintained his stance that the Fed should move faster than the traditional quarter-point pace, once again calling for a 50-basis-point (half-point) reduction while emphasizing that at minimum there should be a quarter-point cut.

He said, “Nothing is certain. We could get data that makes me change my mind between now and the decision date. But absent new information that shifts my outlook, looking ahead, yes, I think 50 basis points is appropriate, but at least 25.”

The remarks came as the US Senate made significant progress, with Republicans and Democrats reaching an agreement on a bill to fund the government through January 30 — a step paving the way to end the record-long shutdown that began in early October.

As of 19:46 GMT, the US Dollar Index fell 0.2% to 99.4, after hitting a session high of 99.7 and a low of 99.2.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian dollar rose 0.1% against its US counterpart to 0.7139 by 19:58 GMT.

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar fell 0.1% against the US dollar to 0.6530 at 19:58 GMT.

Most US stock indexes fell on Tuesday as pressure on the technology sector persisted and investors awaited the official end of the government shutdown.

Data released by ADP showed that the US private sector lost an average of 11,250 jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 25.

Federal Reserve member Steven Miran reiterated on Monday his call for further interest rate cuts to help prevent a potential future slowdown.

In an interview with CNBC, Miran maintained his view that the Fed should move faster than its typical quarter-point pace, once again advocating for a 50-basis-point (half-point) cut, while stressing that at minimum there should be a quarter-point reduction.

He said, “Nothing is certain. We could get data that makes me change my mind between now and the decision date. But absent new information that shifts my outlook, looking ahead, yes — I still think 50 basis points is appropriate, but at least 25.”

The remarks came as the US Senate made significant progress, with Republicans and Democrats reaching an agreement on a bill to fund the government through January 30 — a move that paves the way to end the record-long shutdown that began in early October.

As of 16:00 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% (170 points) to 47,540, while the S&P 500 fell 0.3% (20 points) to 6,811, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.8% (185 points) to 23,342.

Copper prices fell on Tuesday as global supply continued to expand alongside rising stockpiles of the industrial metal in the United States.

Copper was officially added to the US government’s list of “critical minerals” deemed essential for economic and national security, according to a new report — a move underscoring the metal’s growing importance to modern industries spanning energy and technology.

Ironically, the US already holds the world’s second-largest copper inventory after China — without spending a single federal dollar to build it. Market forces alone created this reserve, driven by a wide arbitrage gap between prices on the US CME exchange and the London Metal Exchange (LME).

Price gap drives copper toward the US

The price differential between the two markets has attracted massive physical copper inflows into the US, a trend that continues as traders bet that the “critical mineral” designation — first floated in August — could eventually lead to import tariffs.

Arbitrage trade: from investigation to major price gap

When President Donald Trump ordered a national security review of copper imports in February, markets quickly priced in potential tariffs similar to those previously imposed on steel and aluminum.

By July, the gap between US and global copper prices had widened to roughly $3,000 per metric ton, creating a lucrative opportunity for major traders to ship as much copper as possible to the US for quick profit.

However, that premium collapsed later in July when the Trump administration surprised markets by imposing tariffs on semi-finished copper products while delaying a decision on refined copper duties until July 2026.

The gap returns

Still, arbitrage activity hasn’t ended. The spread has widened again, with the spot premium on the CME rising from under $100 per ton in August to more than $300, and the 10-month forward spread reaching around $800 per ton.

While smaller than July’s record levels, the gap remains sufficient to cover shipping costs, keeping incentives strong for traders to bring more copper into the US.

Massive CME inventories

This dynamic is reflected in surging copper inventories registered on the CME, which only allows delivery within the US.

Stocks have jumped from 83,900 tons in February to more than 335,000 tons today — meaning CME warehouses now hold more copper than the LME and Shanghai exchanges combined.

Deliveries continue daily into the American delivery network, particularly through the Port of New Orleans, as well as Baltimore, Salt Lake City, and Tucson.

“Economically trapped” copper in America

Benchmark Minerals Intelligence estimates that between 731,000 and 831,000 tons of copper in the US can be considered “economically trapped” — meaning it would take a sharp reversal in price spreads for this metal to leave the country.

With US premiums widening again, inventories are likely to keep rising rather than declining.

Trade data — delayed by the recent government shutdown — show that refined copper imports exceeded 1 million tons in the first seven months of the year, up roughly 400,000 tons from the same period last year.

Export data from top producers like Chile, Peru, and Australia also confirm strong flows toward the US.

The US becomes copper’s top destination

The United States has effectively become the world’s main destination for excess copper, enabling Germany’s Aurubis — Europe’s largest producer — to raise its 2026 delivery premium by 38% to a record $315 per ton above LME prices.

A strategic stockpile without official planning

Market dynamics have triggered a major redistribution of global copper inventories toward the US, where the metal is now effectively “locked in” by the same forces that brought it there.

Without any formal strategy, the US has effectively built what could be described as a “strategic copper reserve” — managed by private industry rather than the government.

This reserve continues to grow and will likely keep expanding as long as arbitrage opportunities persist, allowing traders to profit by buying copper abroad and shipping it to US ports.

China is believed to hold the world’s largest strategic copper stockpile, estimated at around 2 million tons — though exact figures remain a state secret.

The US has not reached that scale yet, but it is steadily moving toward a comparable reserve size.

The final irony: upcoming tariffs may reduce import dependence

The Trump administration is set to review US dependence on copper imports in July next year, with the potential to impose tariffs on refined copper starting in 2027.

Ironically, every ton of copper entering the country now reduces that very dependence — even before tariffs designed to promote domestic production take effect.

As of 15:10 GMT, December copper futures were down 0.5% at $5.07 per pound.

Bitcoin fell on Tuesday, extending its recent pullback as progress toward ending the US government shutdown and fresh purchases by top institutional holder Strategy Inc. failed to provide meaningful support.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped 0.7% to $105,355.6 by 12:25 a.m. Eastern Time (05:25 GMT).

Bitcoin fails to react to shutdown progress or Strategy purchases

The decline came despite improving risk appetite in broader markets after the US Senate approved a bill to end the federal government shutdown. The bill now moves to the House of Representatives, which is set to debate it on Wednesday, with the Republican majority signaling its intent to pass it.

Still, the news had little impact on cryptocurrencies, as investors favored higher-risk assets such as equities. The rebound in tech stocks this week also drew capital away from digital assets.

Bitcoin saw limited benefit from Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) — the largest institutional holder — announcing the purchase of an additional 487 coins this week, bringing its total holdings to 641,692 bitcoins.

Jim Chanos closes short position against Strategy

Investor Jim Chanos, famous for shorting Enron before its 2001 collapse, said he closed his short position against Strategy Inc. after the company’s stock fell close to the fair value of its bitcoin holdings.

Chanos explained that his bet was based on Strategy’s shares trading at a steep premium to the value of its bitcoin assets but noted that the gap had narrowed sharply following last month’s extended selloff. He wrote on social media that the firm’s market-value-to-NAV multiple had dropped to 1.23× from 2.5× earlier this year, adding there was still room for further downside.

Strategy’s Class A shares have fallen 20.4% since the start of 2025 amid investor skepticism over its premium valuation relative to its bitcoin holdings.

Analysts: Path open for renewed rally

Despite the decline, some analysts believe bitcoin could be preparing for a new rally after Monday’s Senate vote to end the shutdown.

According to The Hill, the move is expected to conclude the longest federal shutdown in US history, injecting optimism into markets still reeling from a $20 billion liquidation on October 10.

Farzam Ehsani, CEO of crypto exchange VALR, told DL News the development “opens the door to a broader market rebound,” adding that bitcoin could target $130,000 if it breaks above $110,000 — a level he described as “the start of a new bullish cycle.”

Bitcoin now trades near $105,000. While the government has yet to formally reopen, Senate approval clears the way for a House vote expected to pass on Wednesday.

Signs of a near-term rebound

The $3.6 trillion crypto market has been moving sideways, about 5% above its early-November lows. Withdrawals from bitcoin ETFs have also paused, with the funds recording net sales of $1.2 million on Monday, according to DefiLlama.

Shutdown nears its end

The US Senate passed a bipartisan funding bill Monday night by a 60-40 vote, paving the way to reopen the government after a record 41-day closure, The Hill reported.

President Donald Trump backed the deal and is expected to sign it this week, restoring funding for key federal agencies and resuming pay for hundreds of thousands of workers.

Trump further boosted sentiment by reviving the idea of $2,000 stimulus checks financed by tariff revenues — a proposal aimed at supporting middle- and low-income households, reminiscent of the pandemic-era payments that helped ignite the last major crypto bull run.

With the shutdown’s end in sight and market optimism improving, attention now turns to Thursday’s US CPI report — a key test of whether the recovery can sustain momentum.

Investors are watching closely, as the data could influence the Federal Reserve’s December policy decision on interest rates.

CME FedWatch shows a 63% chance of a December rate cut, while Polymarket traders price the odds at 69%.

Altcoins edge lower

Other cryptocurrencies traded narrowly and mixed, lacking strong positive catalysts. Bitcoin’s weakness weighed on the broader market:

Ethereum slipped 1.6% to $3,549.22, while XRP rose 0.9% to $2.4739.