US dollar climbs mildly before speeches by Fed officials

The US dollar rose slightly on Monday as traders awaited a series of speeches by Federal Reserve officials throughout the week, which could provide additional signals regarding the outlook for US interest rates after the central bank resumed its easing cycle last week.

The dollar moved near the levels seen before the Fed’s latest decision. Analysts said current pricing aligns with the central bank’s messages, which highlighted mounting concerns about the labor market as a key driver of monetary policy.

US economic data last week showed a decline in new jobless claims, reversing the jump recorded in the previous week.

Bob Savage, head of macroeconomic strategy for markets at BNY Mellon, said: “The absence of major economic data until the release of the core PCE price index on Friday leaves investors poised to reconsider the path of rate cuts and plans ahead.”

He added: “Fed officials’ speeches will be extremely important, with more than 18 events scheduled,” pointing to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack, and St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Musalem, given their hawkish stance before the last Fed meeting.

New Fed governor Steven Miran defended himself on Friday as an independent policymaker after opposing the consensus in favor of a larger 50-basis-point cut, pledging to provide detailed arguments for his position in a speech on Monday.

Analysts noted that Miran’s lone dissent was a calculated step by the rest of the FOMC members to show unity behind Powell and reinforce the institution’s independence.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump criticized the Fed, urging the central bank to cut interest rates more aggressively.

The dollar had slipped slightly after recovering last week when the Fed signaled no rush to ease policy further in the coming months. The dollar rose 0.05% to 97.66 against a basket of currencies.

The euro held steady at $1.1748. The Swedish krona fell 0.10% to 9.4140 against the dollar ahead of the Riksbank’s policy meeting on Tuesday.

Giada Giani, chief economist at Citi, said: “If a rate cut is approved, it is likely to be the last one in this cycle for the Riksbank.”

The yen slipped 0.10% to 148.06 against the dollar, trimming last week’s gains fueled by the Bank of Japan’s hawkish tone, which had raised speculation of a near-term hike.

The pound fell to a two-week low at $1.3453, pressured by domestic headwinds after a surge in UK public borrowing and the Bank of England’s decision, which underscored the challenge policymakers face in balancing growth and inflation.

Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, said: “We have postponed our expectations for the next move to 2026. However, since this has largely been priced in already, and with sterling focus on the UK fiscal outlook, we still see the pound under pressure through the autumn and potentially beyond.”

In other markets, the Australian dollar fell 0.17% to $0.6575, its lowest since September 8.

The Chinese yuan edged up to 7.1136 against the dollar, supported by easing trade tensions between Beijing and Washington, and China’s decision to leave benchmark lending rates unchanged.