China is on track to nearly double its data center capacity over the next five years, with 28 GW of new projects expected to come online by 2030, adding to the 32 GW already installed by the end of last year, according to a recent analysis by Rystad Energy.

Based on currently announced projects, which are likely to be followed by further additions, data center electricity consumption is projected to rise to 289 TWh by 2030. This is more than double last year's levels and represents approximately 2.3% of China's total electricity demand.

Data centers are also expected to become the fastest-growing source of power demand in the country, with an annual growth rate of 19% between 2025 and 2030, driven by the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and high-performance computing.

Installed capacity is set to reach 40 GW by the end of this year, up from 32 GW at the end of 2025, reflecting the accelerating pace of construction. AI and advanced computing centers are playing an increasing role, accounting for 39% of current capacity, a figure expected to rise to 48% by 2030.

Unlike traditional data centers, these facilities consume significantly larger amounts of power, reshaping the scale and distribution of China's digital infrastructure. This shift was bolstered by the "East Data, West Computing" strategy launched in 2022, which established eight major computing hubs to alleviate resource pressure in the East. This has led to the emergence of clusters in regions like Ulanqab in Inner Mongolia, where companies such as Huawei and ByteDance have secured major projects.

China's data center sector is no longer a marginal part of the energy ecosystem; it has become a structural driver of demand. What distinguishes this expansion is its speed, fueled by AI, which is simultaneously pressuring infrastructure execution schedules and power procurement.

Operators are increasingly relying on a mix of energy sources, such as wind, solar, and battery storage, rather than waiting for government incentives, as securing reliable, low-emission electricity has become a commercial priority.

Rystad Energy expects China's total electricity demand to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9% through 2030, compared to 6.5% during the 14th Five-Year Plan, during which consumption exceeded 10,000 TWh last year.

In contrast, industrial demand growth is expected to slow from 5.4% between 2021 and 2025 to 3% through 2030. Meanwhile, data centers continue to record robust growth, having risen at a CAGR of 38% over the past five years, and are expected to maintain 19% growth until the end of the decade, raising their share of electricity consumption to 2.3%.

China has also placed data center development among its strategic priorities in the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), focusing on efficiency and the integration of renewable energy. Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) is a key metric, with the country aiming to reduce it to below 1.5 and reach advanced global levels by 2030.

Strict standards are already being imposed on new centers, which must not exceed a PUE of 1.25, or 1.2 in national computing hubs, compared to advanced global levels of 1.04–1.07 in top-tier facilities.

Chinese companies rely primarily on the national power grid to ensure operational continuity, supported by stable supplies of conventional energy and robust networks capable of absorbing growing demand.

At the same time, this surge represents an opportunity to enhance the use of renewable energy. The 2025 Green Data Center plan mandates that all new projects in national hubs obtain at least 80% of their needs from renewable sources.

Strategies utilized include purchasing Green Electricity Certificates (GECs), direct contracting with solar or wind projects, and on-site self-generation.

Advanced models are emerging in this context, such as the Zhongjin project in Ulanqab, which combines wind, solar, and battery storage, as well as China Mobile’s "Chaidamu" project and Tencent’s cloud computing center, which relies on a mix of solar power and green energy trading.

The nickel market has entered a new phase characterized by tightening supply conditions and deliberate price management by Indonesian authorities. After breaking through the trading range of 17,000 to 18,000 dollars per ton that prevailed over recent weeks, prices rose to approximately 19,200 dollars per ton, settling within the target range of 18,500 to 20,000 dollars. Prices also touched the 19,600 dollar level during a recent session, signaling improved market fundamentals across the supply chain.

This price movement is not viewed as a mere cyclical fluctuation. Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel, believes the market is witnessing the "beginning of a new normal" rather than a temporary squeeze. He noted that structural changes imposed by Indonesia—the world's largest nickel producer—have reshaped the cost curve and supply dynamics, supporting the sustainability of elevated prices over the long term.

In this context, the Indonesian quota system has emerged as a key factor in reducing near-term supply. This follows Eramet’s decision to suspend operations at the "Weda Bay" mine after exhausting its annual ore quota of 12 million tons. This mine is a primary supplier to industrial production complexes in Indonesia, highlighting the effectiveness of the quota system in balancing the market.

Indonesia has adopted several strategic measures to manage the market, most notably shifting from three-year production quotas to annual quotas, granting greater flexibility to increase or decrease supply according to market conditions. This system appears carefully designed to support price increases without causing sharp volatility that could disrupt the market or incentivize the entry of competing supplies.

The Indonesian approach is not limited to physical supply control but also extends to indirect influence on prices. Selby indicated that authorities might resort to "moral suasion" if prices rise too quickly above the 20,000 dollar per ton level, by hinting at possible supply increases or warning against excessive price levels. It is believed that the target range between 20,000 and 21,000 dollars achieves a balance between generating lucrative profits for Indonesian producers and preventing the stimulation of new high-cost production projects in other regions.

At the same time, high input costs are supporting prices, particularly sulfur, which has risen by more than 100 dollars per ton to exceed 1,000 dollars, compared to approximately 150 dollars 18 months ago. For producers utilizing High-Pressure Acid Leaching (HPAL) technology, every 100 dollar increase in the price of sulfur raises the cost of nickel production by about 1,000 to 1,200 dollars per ton, reinforcing inflationary pressures in the market.

The sulfur market also faces additional risks due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which represents about 25% of global supplies and 75% of Indonesia's imports. If the closure persists longer, it could lead to a significant decline in HPAL production, pushing nickel prices up by thousands of additional dollars per ton.

On another front, nickel inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) continue to decline, falling by about 4,000 tons this month following a 6,000-ton drop the previous month. This indicates that the market is approaching balance after a long period of surplus, with expectations of intensifying pressure as the year progresses.

This decline is occurring despite the fact that about 80% of global nickel production—particularly Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) and Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP)—is not delivered through the LME. However, the expansion of refining capacities in China and Indonesia has helped integrate these products into the global market.

On the demand side, stainless steel prices rose by 4% to 5% during the week, which is expected to trigger a restocking cycle across the supply chain. Since nickel is a primary component in the production cost of this type of steel, rising prices prompt buyers to increase inventories in anticipation of further hikes.

Although nickel prices have risen from approximately 14,000 dollars per ton in December to current levels, profit margins have only recently begun to recover due to high ore and intermediate product costs. This supports the sustainability of high prices rather than indicating a temporary speculative bubble.

Bitcoin (BTC) recorded a slight recovery on Wednesday, trading above the 77,000 dollar level after retreating by approximately 3% over the previous two days. At the same time, institutional demand saw some cooling, as spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded modest outflows on Tuesday for the second consecutive day. Traders are now awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which could play a decisive role in determining the next direction for the world's largest cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin saw a minor bounce during the European trading session as investors hesitated, waiting for the anticipated monetary policy decision. Focus is particularly centered on the post-meeting press conference, where outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statements will be analyzed for signals regarding the future path of monetary policy. These expectations will have a direct impact on U.S. dollar movements and, consequently, on high-risk assets like Bitcoin.

Analysts at Bitfinex noted that the mechanism of influence is clear: interest rates affect yields and the dollar index, which in turn affect ETF flows and exchange reserves, ultimately reflecting on Bitcoin's price. They explained that a "hawkish hold" (keeping rates steady with a firm tone) could keep institutional demand weak and might push the price to decline or remain below the 72,100 dollar level. However, if the decision comes with a "dovish" tone—signaling slowing growth or the possibility of future rate cuts—it could support investment flows and drive the price toward the 80,000 to 84,000 dollar range.

In contrast, geopolitical factors continue to weigh on the market, as uncertainty surrounding the second round of peace talks between the United States and Iran has limited risk appetite. Hopes faded after Donald Trump canceled a scheduled visit by his special envoy, alongside reports indicating his dissatisfaction with the Iranian proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

On the other hand, data from SoSoValue showed that Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of 89.68 million dollars on Tuesday, following a withdrawal of 263.18 million dollars on Monday. This ended a nine-day streak of positive inflows that began in mid-April. The continuation of this trend is a warning signal that could lead to further price correction.

Technically, Bitcoin maintains a moderately positive outlook as it trades above its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, providing significant support near the 73,600 and 75,600 dollar levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates moderate positive momentum, although other indicators show a slowdown in the ascent as the price approaches strong resistance levels.

Overall, it appears that Bitcoin's near-term movements will remain hostage to the Fed's decision and policy tone, alongside developments in the geopolitical landscape, leaving the market in a state of cautious anticipation before the next trend is established.

Oil prices rose by 3% on Wednesday, with Brent crude reaching a one-week high amid media reports that the United States will extend its blockade of Iranian ports. This development suggests prolonged supply disruptions from the Middle East, a region vital to global energy production.

The Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for an extension of the blockade on Iran, citing U.S. officials. According to the report, Trump aims to maintain pressure on the Iranian economy and its oil exports by preventing shipping traffic to and from its ports. Despite a ceasefire being reached in the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, the situation remains in a state of deadlock as both sides seek a formal end to hostilities.

Brent crude futures for June delivery rose by 3.33 dollars, or 3%, to 114.59 dollars per barrel by 10:04 GMT, marking the eighth consecutive day of gains and the highest level since March 31. The June contract expires on Thursday, while the more actively traded July contract reached 107.43 dollars, an increase of 2.9%.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June delivery climbed 3.55 dollars, or 3.6%, to 103.48 dollars per barrel—its highest level since April 13—recording gains in seven out of the last eight sessions.

Yang An, an analyst at Haitong Futures, noted: "The recent surge in oil prices is driven by the closure of the Strait. If Trump decides to extend the blockade, supply disruptions will worsen, pushing prices even higher."

In a related development, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) informed some customers of the possibility of loading two types of crude oil from outside the Gulf next month as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists, according to sources and documents seen by Reuters.

Investors are also assessing the implications of the United Arab Emirates' surprise decision to withdraw from the OPEC+ alliance. However, analysts do not expect a significant short-term impact. A memo from ANZ Bank stated: "The UAE's withdrawal underscores weakening organizational cohesion, but the immediate effect is limited. Geopolitical factors, inventories, and logistics remain the primary drivers of prices rather than institutional changes."

ING analysts added that any increase in UAE production would only have a practical effect once a resolution allows energy to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without restrictions. They noted that in the medium to long term, the UAE's decision implies higher market supply, which could further push the Brent forward curve into backwardation.

Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on inventories, following an American Petroleum Institute (API) report showing a decline in crude stocks for the second consecutive week.