The pound fell broadly on Friday against most currencies and lost 11 percent against the US dollar surpassing the mark $ 1.35, marking the lowest level since 1985 after the British voted in a referendum yesterday in favor of the secession of their country from the European Union, which pushed Prime Minister Britain's David Cameron to offer his resignation, and the pound rose before the release of the results above the barrier of 1.50 $ for the first time since December 2015 but soon returned to the sharp decline with the succession of the issuance of initial results of the referendum.
Despite the recent gains in the pound but the billionaire investor George Soros, who made huge profits from betting on the devaluation of the pound in 1992, has warned of economic risks for the secession of Britain of the European Union and wrote in Britain's Guardian newspaper that the pound could fall more than 20 percent against the dollar is the largest of achieved in 1992 decline.
GBP against the US dollar by 11:10 pm GMT, trading at 1.3690 from an opening price of 1.4856 after recording the highest price of 1.5015 the highest since 16 December 2015 and the lowest price of 1.3225, the lowest since 1985.
Britain referendum resulted in a vote of 51.8 percent of Britons in favor of secession from the European Union compared with 48.2 percent voted in favor of survival, and the referendum caused the biggest shock to global markets since the 2008 financial crisis.
British Prime Minister David Cameron resigned after the campaign that he led to the survival of his country within the European Union failed, and stressed that Britain needs a new political leadership, pointing out that the another head of government should do the exit process negotiations with the EU.
And the pound sterling is heading to the largest daily loss ever against the US dollar , surpassing the loss of Black Wednesday in 1992 and that which lost 4.2 percent against the US dollar, amid expectations of further negative pressure on the British currency with the risks they will be exposed during the next period, which is expected to drive the British central bank to strengthen the stimulus policies to stop the expected pace of economic growth in the country.
It is expected that the secession of the United Kingdom of the European Union lead to a new drawing of political and economic relations in Europe, and is expected to faces a large relapses in various sectors, which are expected to be reflected in the economy to enter a long period of stagnation.
And central bankers warned of the dangers of Britain's secession on the global economy, and Janet Yellen president of , "the Central Council of the Federal Reserve," said last week that the British referendum was behind the US interest to maintain the fixed rates unchanged this month.
And the banking and financial shares suffered heavy losses during the trading day in the European and world markets on its way towards its biggest losses ever, in light of the expectations that global central banks are expanding the use of negative interest rates to counter the effects of the exit from the European bloc.
On the other hand, Moody's Ratings Services said on Friday that Britain's secession from the European Union will negatively affect the sovereign credit rating for Britain's, and the agency confirmed that the result of the referendum will carry for a long period of confusion over financial policies, which would increase the negative pressure on economic and financial performance in United kingdom.
Technical Analysis:
Technically, the study of the weekly chart, the pair is under long-term negative pressure since approaching the level of 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire decline has been measured from the recorded historical peak at 2.1174 , down to the previous historical bottom 1.3501, noting that the price made an attempt to break the resistance the bearish channel that carry trades since mid-2014 till now, but without being able to confirm the breach, to bounce down sharply in conjunction with the release of the voting results of the exit of Britain from the EU.
These results pushed the pair to decline very sharply moving from the mentioned bearish channel resistance to the level of its support in a few hours instead of needing to several months, which provides signals that the price may present serious attempts to recover and offset some of these losses, which makes us expect that price witnessing positive trades in the coming period, the main target will be to visit the psychological barrier of 1.5000 areas again.
Technical indicators on the _ weekly frame, showing negative factors may cause further pressure on price to make it difficult to recover, but in general, we believe that the next fate of the price depends on the strength of 1.3500, where the stability of trading above this level and the steadfastness of the price above it for today - last day of this week - represents a positive factor will enable the pair to make a positive attempts in the short and medium term, and this is what we can get by looking at the daily chart below:
Where we note that there are positive opportunities after approaching greatly from the support of the bearish channel, according to the trading rules within channels, the price is heading toward a possible visit to the resistance level of this channel, which is at approximately 1.4741, noting that the price needs to skip the important resistance begins at 1.4163 then 1.4741 to confirm the offset of its losses this day and recovers the gains way again.
SO, and a conclusion of the above, we must first follow-up the closure of trading today and week, as the levels that should be monitored is the support 1.3500 and the resistance 1.4163, pointing that the breach of this resistance and stability above it will confirm the continuation of the recover attempts of the price and then targeting the next barrier 1.4741 in the near term, where breaching this last level represents a key extension of the pair gains to reach 1.5210 and then 1.5675 mainly, and in return, the breach of 1.3500 and stability below it will put the pair under further negative pressure, which could push the pair to incur further losses, and then target the historical bottom levels beyond what has been achievable today.
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