Skepticism grows over Elon Musk's AI utopia

Technology leaders increasingly argue that artificial intelligence will soon create a world of abundance capable of solving humanity's biggest challenges, from climate change to economic scarcity. By "technology leaders," they mean the broad ecosystem of tech companies, scientists, inventors, investors, and industry journalists whose innovations have reshaped modern life by making it faster, though not necessarily better.

In a recent interview with The Economist, Elon Musk said that once humanity has "vast numbers of robots with vast digital intelligence," the global economy will become "almost unlimited." In such a world, he argued, "anyone can have anything they want," and money will become largely irrelevant by 2036 because everyone will enjoy a high income without needing to work. Musk compared this future to the post-scarcity society portrayed in Star Trek.

The dream of limitless abundance

Musk's vision reflects a broader aspiration within the technology industry: a future in which virtually anything can be created at the push of a button or a simple voice command. It is the same vision popularized by Star Trek, where poverty has disappeared, money is no longer necessary, and people's needs are effortlessly met.

The author recalls a friend once asking, "If you had a machine that could make anything you wanted and a fully immersive virtual reality room, why would you ever travel?" Yet the characters in Star Trek spent much of their time exploring new civilizations and distant worlds.

Musk argues that even in a post-scarcity society, some people would still choose to work, much as some people continue gardening despite being able to buy food at a supermarket.

An unanswered question

The most striking element of Musk's vision, however, is his expectation that artificial intelligence could be running the world within roughly a decade, with minimal human involvement.

That raises an obvious question: if intelligent systems are managing everything, how will companies continue making money? Will companies even continue to exist?

According to the author, Musk offers no clear answer.

Another question naturally follows. If people no longer work, where will they get their income?

Musk's answer is straightforward: governments would simply send checks to citizens.

The author sees an irony in that proposal. Musk previously joined US President Donald Trump's administration to help reduce government spending through the Department of Government Efficiency. Yet the future he now describes resembles a form of AI-driven socialism, despite sitting uneasily alongside his current political positions.

The "will happen" test

The author points to a challenge created by AI critic Ed Zitron, who asks AI enthusiasts to explain what today's AI models can actually do without using the words "will" or "going to."

According to the author, most AI advocates struggle with that exercise because their arguments rely overwhelmingly on future promises rather than current capabilities.

Can today's AI models run the world?

The author argues that today's large language models remain far from delivering the future Musk envisions.

In his view, these systems still make frequent mistakes, and so-called hallucinations are not merely temporary flaws but are deeply embedded in how the models operate.

He also argues that the level of intelligence required to manage critical economic systems and infrastructure cannot be achieved by large language models alone. Entrusting them with essential sectors of society, he warns, could create disasters rather than prosperity.

Who really benefits?

The author is equally skeptical of the idea that today's technology giants would somehow disappear once universal prosperity arrives.

Instead, he believes this narrative is intended to reassure the public while diverting attention from the real consequences of expanding AI deployment.

In his view, the most profitable applications of artificial intelligence today are surveillance systems and military technologies, where governments appear willing to absorb high costs in exchange for greater security and defense capabilities, even when such systems continue to make mistakes.

High costs and uncertain profitability

The author acknowledges that businesses and consumers are already benefiting from AI in some areas, particularly by improving internet search.

However, he argues that the true cost of those benefits is far higher than users currently pay.

Every additional user requires more computing capacity and new data centers, meaning AI does not appear to enjoy the same economies of scale as traditional digital businesses. Instead, costs continue to rise as the user base expands.

For that reason, he believes current AI models may ultimately become profitable only in specialized applications where customers are willing to pay their full economic cost.

Conclusion

The author concludes that technology leaders have spent years repeating essentially the same message: trust us, and let us lead you toward a more prosperous technological future.

In his view, today's promises surrounding artificial intelligence are part of a broader effort to persuade the public to embrace its rapid expansion without sufficiently debating its risks and potential misuse.

He notes that many communities have already begun opposing the construction of additional AI data centers because of their costs and their impact on local communities. The same debate, he argues, should also extend to how artificial intelligence itself is used and how its misuse can be prevented.