Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the U.S. labor market remains in a state of stagnation, marked by low hiring and firing rates through September, though the broader economy “may be on a somewhat stronger path than previously expected.”

Powell noted that policymakers will take a “meeting-by-meeting” approach to any further interest rate cuts, as they try to balance a soft labor market with inflation that remains above the 2% target.

In prepared remarks delivered at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) conference, Powell said: “Based on the data available to us, the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since the September meeting four weeks ago, during which the Fed cut the benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point.”

He added that data available before the government shutdown indicated economic activity “may be running somewhat stronger than expected.”

No risk-free path

Powell emphasized that “there is no risk-free path for monetary policy” as the Fed seeks to balance its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. He noted a nearly even split among policymakers on when the next rate cut should occur—either later this month or in December—and among those who believe one more cut, or none, would be sufficient before year-end.

He cautioned that these expectations could shift as new data emerge, saying: “I would reiterate that these projections should be understood as a set of possible outcomes whose probabilities change as new information comes in, guiding our decision-making from meeting to meeting. We will set policy based on the evolving economic outlook and the balance of risks, not on any pre-set course.”

Labor market stagnation despite lack of official data

Although the September jobs report was delayed due to the government shutdown, Powell—who devoted much of his speech to discussing the Fed’s balance sheet policy—said he relied on a combination of public and private data to form a clearer picture of the labor market.

“While official employment data for September have been delayed, the evidence we have suggests that both layoffs and hiring remain low, and that households’ perceptions of job availability, as well as firms’ perceptions of hiring difficulty, continue to decline,” Powell said.

Tariffs driving inflation higher

Powell also noted that elevated inflation partly reflects higher prices for goods affected by tariffs, rather than broad-based inflationary pressures in the economy.

The Fed is set to receive updated inflation data on October 24, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics was instructed to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on schedule despite the ongoing shutdown.

Next Fed meeting at the end of October

The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting is scheduled for October 28–29, with markets widely expecting another quarter-point rate cut.

US stocks fell on Tuesday as renewed concerns over a trade war between the United States and China weighed on investor sentiment.

China announced new sanctions against five US companies affiliated with South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean, saying the move was aimed at protecting national security.

The decision came after President Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting in early November in response to China tightening export restrictions on rare earth minerals.

Later today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to deliver a speech at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics.

As of 16:13 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% (or 45 points) to 46,022, while the broader S&P 500 declined 0.4% (or 29 points) to 6,625. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.99% (or 224 points) to 22,469.

Nickel prices fell on Tuesday as a major U.S. bank issued a downbeat forecast for industrial metals next year.

In a research note published Friday, Goldman Sachs said copper prices are expected to remain within a range of $10,000 to $11,000 per metric ton during 2026–2027 due to a supply surplus, though the long-term outlook for industrial metals remains positive.

The bank highlighted three key factors likely to cap copper’s upside:

Chinese buyers may reduce purchases if prices exceed $11,000 per ton, as seen in Q2 2024; high U.S. inventories could quickly rebalance the market if price spreads on the London Metal Exchange (LME) narrow; and demand linked to data centers may have been overestimated compared to initial projections.

Copper prices dropped Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was considering a major increase in tariffs on Chinese imports, raising fears of an escalating trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Goldman: Indonesian producer margins to determine nickel’s path

Regarding the nickel market, Goldman Sachs said profit margins for Indonesian producers need to decline further to slow supply growth and reverse the persistent surplus.

The bank expects nickel prices to fall 6% to $14,500 per metric ton by December 2026.

Aluminum market seen in surplus, prices unlikely to recover before 2030

Goldman also forecasts a surplus in the aluminum market as Indonesian supply rises from mid-2026.

It projects aluminum prices at around $2,350 per ton in Q4 2026, with no return to current levels before 2030.

China to become net zinc exporter by 2026

The bank expects China to shift from a net importer to a net exporter of zinc in 2026, driven by increased domestic production.

“We expect China’s rising output to move the country from deficit to surplus, while the market outside China turns to deficit,” the report said. “To achieve global balance, Chinese producers will need to be incentivized to export.”

Cobalt supported by supply tightness and new export quotas from Congo

In the cobalt market, Goldman Sachs noted that new export quotas imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo — which accounts for 70% of global supply — are likely to trigger a deficit in 2026, tightening the market and supporting prices.

Lithium to stay depressed until 2026 amid persistent oversupply

Goldman also expects lithium prices to remain subdued for longer, averaging $8,900 per metric ton in 2026, citing ongoing oversupply keeping the market bloated.

As of 16:07 GMT, spot nickel prices were down 0.7% at $14,900 per ton.

Bitcoin Falls as Trade Tensions Weigh on Risk Appetite

Bitcoin retreated on Tuesday, ending its recent rebound as risk appetite faded across markets amid escalating fears of a renewed trade war between the United States and China.

The broader cryptocurrency market traded lower or flat after suffering steep losses in recent sessions.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China wiped nearly $500 billion off the total crypto market capitalization in just a few days.

Bitcoin led the decline, plunging sharply from last week’s record high of $126,000.

As of 00:53 Eastern Time (04:53 GMT), the world’s largest cryptocurrency was down 1% at $113,547.

Investors shifted away from Bitcoin toward traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, which hit a new all-time high on Tuesday.

Although more conciliatory U.S. statements toward China offered brief support to digital assets, overall risk sentiment remained fragile.

Bitcoin’s Rebound Short-Lived Amid Market Turmoil

Bitcoin had fallen sharply to $103,800 over the weekend following Trump’s initial announcement of new tariffs on China.

While the token later recovered to $115,000 on Monday, the rebound quickly lost steam as signs of improvement in U.S.–China relations remained absent.

China said on Tuesday it was “ready to fight to the end” in a trade war with the United States, accusing Washington of discriminatory policies.

The latest flare-up in trade tensions — threatening to unravel the previous framework agreement between the two sides — stems from U.S. anger over China’s tightened restrictions on rare-earth exports.

Beijing defended the curbs as justified and signaled little willingness to comply with U.S. demands, though it confirmed that technical talks with Washington were ongoing while warning against further tariff escalation.