Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the bank would’ve cut interest rates if it weren’t for President Trump’s tariff plans. 

In response to a question at the European Central Bank Forum in Portugal, he said the Fed paused its moves on interest rates when it saw the size of the tariffs, with inflation forecasts rising after their announcement. 

The Fed has maintained interest rates unchanged below 4.5% despite mounting pressures from the White House. 

The Fed expects two interest rate cuts by the end of 2025, with Powell even opening the door for a July rate cut based on the data.

The markets expect a 76% chance of no changes in interest rates in July.

Trump has continued to attack Powell heavily due to his stance on interest rates, and publicly announcing plans to replace him soon.

Powell’s Fed Chair term ends in 2026, while his term as member of the Fed ends in 2028.

Trump’s recent attacks on Powell raised concerns worldwide about US monetary independence, while his erratic tariff policies continue to cause jitters in global markets. 

Even as the S&P 500 regained its losses and reached record highs, investors remained on edge about the future of global trade and growth due to tariff concerns. 

US stock indices were mixed on Tuesday, the first session of the third quarter, as markets analyze Trump’s big tax bill.

Now investors are poring over Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the European Central Bank Form in Portugal to gauge the future of monetary policies. 

On trading, Dow Jones rose 0.7% as of 16:06 GMT, or 317 points to 44410 points, while S&P 500 shed 0.2%, or 12 points to 6192 points, as NASDAQ dipped 0.8% to 20204 points. 

Copper prices rallied to a three-month high on Tuesday on increasing optimism about demand in China following strong manufacturing data, while the dollar weakened.

Copper prices at the London Metals Exchange rose 0.7% to $9935 a ton, after scaling March 27 highs at $9984.

A recent survey showed China’s factory activities grew in June, boosted by increasing orders after a month of contraction.

Also a weaker dollar boosted the greenback-denominated copper futures as they became cheaper to global traders.

Lower inventories also helped, with copper stocks falling at the London Exchange by 66% since mid February to 91,250 tons.

At the Shanghai Exchange, inventories fell 66% as well from early March levels to 81,550 tons.

The price premium between spot prices and three-month futures stood at $319 a ton last week, the highest since October 22, below falling to $120 on expectations of extensive deliveries. 

The Trump Factor

Continuous threats by US President Trump to impose tariffs on copper imports also served to boost prices at the COMEX exchange, boosting the US premium over London prices. 

As for other industrial metals: 

Aluminum rose 0.4% to $2608 a ton

Zinc fell 0.9% to $2727 

Lead was unchanged at $2044

Tin rose 0.4% to $33850

Nickel fell 0.2% to $15,185

Otherwise, the dollar index fell 0.2% as of 15:24 GMT to 96.7, with a session-high at 96.8, and a low at 96.3.

Copper September futures rose 1.9% in American trade as of 15:20 GMT to $5.18 a pound. 

Bitcoin fell below $107,000 on Tuesday, extending a mild correction from yesterday, but strong corporate demand remained on the cryptocurrency, underpinning it broadly. 

According to CryptoQuant data, bitcoin’s reserve at all major exchanges fell to 2.44 million units, the lowest since 2018, indicating that selling pressures declined.

MicroStrategy continued to grab headlines with its incredulous bitcoin purchases even as the cryptocurrency hits record highs. 

Through the X platform, MicroStrategy’s CEO Micheal Saylor announced a new purchase of 4980 bitcoins, raising the company’s totaling holdings to a new record high of 597,325 bitcoins, averaging $79,977 per unit, with a total value of $42.4 billion.

The purchase occurred between June 23 and 29, with the company spending $532 million in total, spending on average $106,801 per unit.

MicroStrategy has taken a strategy of heavy bitcoin investments since 2020 as a way to guard against inflation.

Saylor has seen a 64% return on his bitcoin investment in 2024, with this bold strategy raising eyebrows and drawing the admiration of many crypto investors.  

Japan’s MetaPlanet also expanded its bitcoin holdings by adding 1005 units worth $108.15 million, averaging $107,601 per unit. 

The company now owns 13,350 bitcoins in total, averaging $97,831 per unit, with a total value of $1.31 billion.

Bitcoin Stable in Third Quarter

A report by Bitfinex Alpha shows that bitcoin’s seasonal performance historically shows lower volatility in the third quarter, with historic return averages at mostly 6%.

Analysts believe that the technical foundation remains strong as long as the price respects the $94,000-$99,000 support, but it’ll need a strong stimulus for a new surge past recent record highs.

Approaching Correction?

Bitcoin’s supplies at profit status” surged from 87% to 98% last month according to Glassnode data, a historic percentage that could precede heavy profit-taking.

We saw that between January and April of this year, with bitcoin falling from $109,000 to $74,000 after the profiting supply percentage reached 98.8% on January 21.