Oil prices steady before Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska

Oil prices steadied on Thursday as investors weighed the potential impact of Friday’s planned US–Russia summit on Ukraine on Russian crude flows, after US President Donald Trump warned of “severe consequences” if Moscow did not agree to peace.

By 09:57 GMT, Brent crude futures rose 35 cents, or 0.53%, to $65.98 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 35 cents, or 0.56%, to $63.00.

Both benchmarks had hit two-month lows on Wednesday following downbeat supply guidance from the US government and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

On Wednesday, Trump threatened “severe consequences” if Russian President Vladimir Putin did not agree to peace in Ukraine, without specifying what those consequences would be, though he had previously warned of economic sanctions if Alaska talks failed.

The US president also threatened secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian crude — particularly China and India — if Moscow continued its war in Ukraine.

Rystad Energy said in a client note: “Uncertainty over the outcome of US–Russia peace talks still adds an upside risk premium, given that buyers of Russian oil may face further economic pressure.” It added: “How the Ukraine–Russia crisis is resolved and changes in Russian oil flows could bring unexpected surprises.”

However, some analysts remained skeptical that Trump would take actions likely to significantly disrupt oil supplies. BVM analyst John Evans said: “Any measure that would lift oil prices, such as secondary tariffs, is almost a self-defeating goal for this administration — and the man from Moscow knows that very well.”

Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September also supported oil prices, as lower borrowing costs could spur economic growth and boost oil demand.

Traders are nearly 100% convinced a rate cut will happen after July data showed US inflation rose at a moderate pace. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he believes a sharp half-point cut is possible given the recent weak jobs data.

Oil prices had been under pressure on Wednesday after US Energy Information Administration data showed an unexpected 3 million barrel increase in US crude stocks for the week ending August 8.