Oil prices steadied on Thursday as investors weighed the potential impact of Friday’s planned US–Russia summit on Ukraine on Russian crude flows, after US President Donald Trump warned of “severe consequences” if Moscow did not agree to peace.

By 09:57 GMT, Brent crude futures rose 35 cents, or 0.53%, to $65.98 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 35 cents, or 0.56%, to $63.00.

Both benchmarks had hit two-month lows on Wednesday following downbeat supply guidance from the US government and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

On Wednesday, Trump threatened “severe consequences” if Russian President Vladimir Putin did not agree to peace in Ukraine, without specifying what those consequences would be, though he had previously warned of economic sanctions if Alaska talks failed.

The US president also threatened secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian crude — particularly China and India — if Moscow continued its war in Ukraine.

Rystad Energy said in a client note: “Uncertainty over the outcome of US–Russia peace talks still adds an upside risk premium, given that buyers of Russian oil may face further economic pressure.” It added: “How the Ukraine–Russia crisis is resolved and changes in Russian oil flows could bring unexpected surprises.”

However, some analysts remained skeptical that Trump would take actions likely to significantly disrupt oil supplies. BVM analyst John Evans said: “Any measure that would lift oil prices, such as secondary tariffs, is almost a self-defeating goal for this administration — and the man from Moscow knows that very well.”

Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September also supported oil prices, as lower borrowing costs could spur economic growth and boost oil demand.

Traders are nearly 100% convinced a rate cut will happen after July data showed US inflation rose at a moderate pace. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he believes a sharp half-point cut is possible given the recent weak jobs data.

Oil prices had been under pressure on Wednesday after US Energy Information Administration data showed an unexpected 3 million barrel increase in US crude stocks for the week ending August 8.

The US dollar posted slight gains against major currencies on Thursday but remained close to multi-week lows, as markets increasingly bet that the Federal Reserve will resume interest rate cuts next month.

The Japanese yen emerged as a notable beneficiary, with the dollar falling to a three-week low against it after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Bank of Japan needs to raise interest rates again soon, while the Fed is preparing for strong cuts.

Rising expectations for monetary easing, coupled with increased institutional investment in cryptocurrencies, pushed Bitcoin to a new record high during the session.

Fed officials have recently shifted to a more dovish tone amid signs of a slowing US labor market, while President Donald Trump’s tariffs have so far not caused a significant increase in inflationary pressures.

According to LSEG data, traders see the September 17 Fed meeting as almost certain to deliver a rate cut, with about a 7% chance of a larger half-point move.

Kyle Rodda, analyst at Capital.com, said: “For markets, the question is no longer if the Fed will cut rates in September, but by how much.” He noted that signs of a cooling labor market have led markets to price in a series of cuts before year-end.

The Fed also faces strong political pressure, with Trump continuing to criticize Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates earlier, even threatening to fire him before his term ends in May.

Bessent on Wednesday called for “a series of cuts,” suggesting the Fed begin easing with a half-point reduction.

However, ING currency analyst Francesco Pesole argued that a 50-basis point cut is “unrealistic at the moment,” adding: “For the market to price in such a large move, we would likely need signals from other Fed members that they are open to the idea.”

Later in the session, markets await July US producer price index data, which Pesole said could boost easing expectations if it comes in below forecasts.

Bessent also said the Bank of Japan has “fallen behind” by delaying rate hikes. Norihiro Yamaguchi, economist at Oxford Economics, noted Bessent’s comments had a strong impact on the dollar-yen exchange rate, adding that yen gains are also accelerating due to thin market liquidity during Japan’s Obon holiday.

The dollar fell 0.8% to ¥146.22, the lowest since July 24, before trimming losses to stand down 0.5%.

The euro slipped 0.24% to $1.1677, retreating from Wednesday’s peak of $1.1730, the highest since July 28.

The British pound was little changed by UK GDP data showing the economy slowed less than expected in Q2, easing 0.1% to $1.35645.

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin earlier jumped to $124,480.82 — the highest since July 14 — before paring gains to trade 1% lower at around $121,685.

Bitcoin has been strongly supported this year by increased institutional inflows, following a series of regulatory changes spearheaded by Trump, who calls himself the “crypto president.”

In the latest move, Trump last week signed an executive order allowing digital assets to be included in 401(k) retirement plans.

Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG, said: “Corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy and Block Inc. keep buying Bitcoin, and a sustained break above $125,000 could push the coin to $150,000.”

The Australian dollar earlier rose 0.4% to its highest since July 28 at $0.65685 before easing 0.16%.

Gold prices fell in the European market on Thursday for the first time in the last three days, pressured by a rebound in US dollar levels in the foreign exchange market, ahead of key US economic data releases.

These crucial data, along with comments from Federal Reserve officials, will provide new clues about the likelihood of US interest rate cuts in September and October.

Price Overview

•Gold prices today: The price of gold declined by 0.4% to $3,341.75, from the opening level of $3,355.76, recording a high of $3,374.88.

•At Wednesday’s close, gold prices rose by 0.25%, marking a second consecutive daily gain, supported by a decline in the US currency.

US Dollar

The US dollar index rose on Thursday by 0.2%, rebounding from a two-week low of 97.62 points, heading for its first gain in the last three sessions, reflecting the recovery of the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

US Interest Rates

•According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool: The probability of a 25-basis point US interest rate cut in September is currently priced at around 99%, with a 1% probability of no change.

•The probability of a 25-basis point US interest rate cut in October is also currently priced at 99%, with a 1% probability of no change.

Key Data Ahead

To reassess these probabilities, investors are awaiting the release later today of important US economic data, including July producer prices and weekly jobless claims.

Gold Outlook

•Kyle Rodda, market analyst at Capital.com, said: “Markets are factoring in the possibility of a 50-basis point Fed interest rate cut in September. Therefore, with a weaker dollar and rising gold prices as a result, yields have also fallen.”

•Rodda added: “The technical outlook for gold looks very positive. The trend still appears bullish. We just need to see the market sustainably break above $3,400.”

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, were unchanged yesterday for the second consecutive day, with the total standing at 964.22 metric tons, the highest level since September 12, 2022.

Bitcoin prices rose during Thursday’s trading, extending gains for the third consecutive day and hitting a new record high by trading above $124,000 for the first time in history.

This historic rally comes amid strong optimism sweeping global markets, particularly with growing bets on monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve, alongside robust regulatory reforms in the United States — the world’s largest crypto asset market.

Major global companies launched another round of Bitcoin purchases, raising their holdings of the leading cryptocurrency to new record levels, as strong inflows continued into US-listed Bitcoin ETFs.

Price Overview

•On the Bitstamp exchange, Bitcoin rose by $1,157, or 0.95%, to $124,517 — the highest level ever — from an opening price of $123,360, with a low at $123,307.

•At Wednesday’s Bitstamp close, Bitcoin had gained 2.75%, marking a second consecutive daily rise amid record demand for the leading cryptocurrency.

Digital Asset Market Cap

The market capitalization of digital currencies rose on Thursday by more than $35 billion to a total of $4.273 trillion — a new all-time high — amid record Bitcoin prices and Ethereum’s climb to its highest since 2021.

Federal Reserve

Expectations for a 50 basis point Fed rate cut before year-end have now been fully priced in, after weak US labor market data and moderate inflation figures released this week.

Several Fed officials and policymakers expressed the need for near-term rate cuts in response to the US economic slowdown.

President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly criticized Jerome Powell for not cutting rates earlier, increased pressure on the Federal Reserve.

White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt stated that the president is considering suing Powell over his handling of renovations at the central bank’s Washington headquarters.

Regulatory Reforms

Since the start of 2025, Bitcoin prices have surged more than 30%, driven by major regulatory wins for the US digital asset sector, particularly after Trump’s return to the White House. He has dubbed himself the “Crypto President,” and his family has significantly expanded investments in the sector.

One major recent decision was an executive order allowing digital assets to be included in 401(k) retirement plans, signaling a more flexible and supportive regulatory environment in the US.

The year 2025 also saw new stablecoin regulations and adjustments to SEC policies to accommodate this asset class, boosting market momentum.

MicroStrategy

On Monday, via X, MicroStrategy co-founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor announced a new Bitcoin purchase of 155 BTC, raising the company’s holdings to a fresh record high.

The purchase, conducted between July 30 and August 10, cost $18 million, at an average of $116,401 per BTC.

Following this acquisition, the company now holds 628,946 BTC at an average price of $73,284 per coin, worth about $46.1 billion.

Metaplanet

Japan’s Metaplanet continued increasing its Bitcoin holdings, acquiring an additional 518 BTC between August 5 and 11 for $61.4 million, at an average of $118,519 per BTC.

After this latest purchase, the company’s holdings reached a record 18,113 BTC worth $1.85 billion, at an average price of $101,909 per BTC.

This move aligns with a similar strategy by US-based MicroStrategy, reflecting growing institutional confidence in digital asset investments.

Strong ETF Inflows

Bitcoin ETFs added about $87 million on Wednesday, marking the sixth straight day of inflows into these US-listed products, with total inflows of around $1.108 billion.

Bitcoin Outlook

•IG’s Tony Sycamore said Bitcoin’s rally is driven by rising confidence in Fed rate cuts, ongoing institutional demand, and Trump’s supportive investment policies for digital assets.

•Sycamore added that a sustained break above $125,000 could send Bitcoin prices toward $150,000.