The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that policymakers were divided over the decision to cut interest rates, reflecting disagreements about whether a cooling labor market or persistent inflation posed the greater threat to the economy.

Although the Federal Open Market Committee approved a rate cut at the meeting, the path for monetary policy in the coming period has become less clear. The divisions extended to expectations for December, with several officials expressing doubts about the need for an additional cut that investors had widely anticipated. “Many” participants said there would be no need for further easing at least through 2025.

The minutes stated: “A number of participants judged that an additional cut could be appropriate in December if the economy evolves as they expect between the two meetings. Many participants indicated that, under their economic scenarios, it would be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year.”

In Fed language, “many” signifies a larger group than “a number of,” indicating a tilt against a December cut. But the term “participants” does not necessarily refer to voting members. Nineteen officials attended the meeting, but only twelve are eligible to vote, leaving the direction of the actual votes unclear.

These signals align with Chair Jerome Powell’s comments during the press conference after the meeting, where he emphasized that a December cut was “not a foregone conclusion.”

Before Powell’s remarks, traders had priced in an almost certain cut at the 9–10 December meeting. By Wednesday afternoon, those odds had fallen to less than one-third.

The minutes also noted that “most participants” still expect that more cuts may eventually be needed, though not necessarily in December.

Ultimately, the committee approved a quarter-point cut, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4%. The 10–2 vote, however, understated the degree of division within an institution known for its consensus.

Officials expressed broad concern about a softening labor market and persistent inflation that “has shown little evidence” of a sustainable move back to the 2% goal. The minutes highlighted several distinct camps within the committee.

“In this context,” the minutes said, “many participants viewed reducing the target range as appropriate at this meeting, while some supported the move but were also prepared to keep the range unchanged, and a number of others opposed a cut.”

A major point of contention was how restrictive policy currently is. Some participants judged that policy remained sufficiently tight even after the quarter-point cut, while others argued that “the resilience of economic activity” suggested policy was not restrictive enough.

Public remarks indicate a split between “doves” such as Stephen Miran, Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman, who favor cuts to protect the labor market, and “hawks” such as Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, Boston’s Susan Collins, and San Francisco’s Alberto Musalem, who worry that further easing could hinder progress on lowering inflation.

In the middle are moderates including Powell, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, and New York Fed President John Williams, who prefer a more cautious approach.

The minutes noted that one participant — a reference to Miran — favored a larger half-point cut. Schmid voted against the move, saying he preferred no cut at all.

The lack of government data for 44 days — due to the government shutdown — further complicated decision-making, since key labor, inflation, and other economic indicators were neither collected nor published. Agencies such as the BLS and BEA announced revised schedules for some releases, but not all.

Powell compared the situation to “driving through fog,” while Waller rejected that analogy earlier this week, insisting the Fed has sufficient information to make policy decisions.

The minutes also addressed the balance sheet. The committee agreed to halt the runoff of Treasuries and MBS in December — a process that has already reduced the balance sheet by more than $2.5 trillion, though it still stands near $6.6 trillion. Support for ending quantitative tightening appeared broad.

Palladium prices declined on Wednesday as the US dollar strengthened against most major currencies ahead of key economic data.

Later today, markets await the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes, which resulted in a rate cut, while the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report for September is due on Thursday.

According to Capital.com, palladium has surged about 26% since the beginning of October to reach roughly 1,500 dollars per ounce. The rally has moved in tandem with gains in platinum and came alongside an easing in global financial conditions.

Expectations of US rate cuts and dollar weakness earlier this month also supported palladium as part of what analysts call a “gold plus liquidity” wave that lifted precious metals broadly.

Palladium is used almost exclusively in catalytic converters for gasoline engines, meaning US automakers and electronics manufacturers could face sharp fluctuations in costs.

Technical analysis from Monex points to resistance between 1,500 and 1,520 dollars per ounce, with expectations that the broader trend remains upward, albeit with volatile trading ahead.

Analysts at CPM Group said palladium’s recent strength is “closely tied to platinum’s performance”, while warning that a weakening US labor market and persistent inflation could weigh on demand.

Despite the announcement of a so-called trade truce between Washington and Beijing, statements from US officials suggest tensions remain. The US Treasury Secretary said China is not a reliable trade partner, while President Donald Trump stated his administration will not allow advanced Nvidia chips to be exported to China or other countries.

The US dollar index rose 0.4% to 99.9 by 15:35 GMT, after touching a high of 99.9 and a low of 99.4.

Palladium futures for December delivery fell 0.7% to 1,414 dollars per ounce by 15:36 GMT.

Bitcoin prices edged higher on Wednesday after a steep sell-off in the previous session, though the token remained close to seven-month lows as traders stayed cautious ahead of key U.S. jobs data and more signals on Federal Reserve policy.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency rose 1.4% to 90,953 dollars by 01:25 Eastern Time (06:25 GMT).

Bitcoin briefly dipped below the 90,000-dollar mark on Tuesday — its weakest level since April — before rebounding toward 94,000 dollars. But it failed to hold those gains as risk sentiment remained fragile.

Caution persists around the Fed… and all eyes on U.S. jobs data

The recent pullback reflects growing uncertainty over the Fed’s interest-rate path. Several policymakers have delivered hawkish-leaning comments in recent days, stressing that the inflation trend remains uneven and suggesting that the room for further easing this year is limited.

That shift has dampened expectations for near-term rate cuts, putting pressure on cryptocurrencies.

Investors are now awaiting Thursday’s delayed September nonfarm payrolls report — postponed due to last month’s government shutdown. The data will help clarify the strength of the labor market and guide the Fed’s next steps, potentially delivering Bitcoin’s next major directional catalyst.

Adding to the unease, U.S. President Donald Trump said he has made his decision on the next Federal Reserve chair and may announce it soon.

Although current chair Jerome Powell’s term runs until May 2026, speculation over a potential successor has raised concerns about the central bank’s future independence.

Kraken valued at 20 billion dollars in latest funding round

Crypto exchange Kraken said Tuesday it raised 800 million dollars in a two-tranche funding round that valued the company at 20 billion dollars — a 33% increase in under two months.

Institutional investors including Jane Street, HSG, Oppenheimer Alternative Investment Management, and Tribe Capital participated in the primary tranche, while a second 200-million-dollar tranche came from Citadel Securities.

Kraken said the funds will help accelerate its mission to offer regulated blockchain-based financial products and expand its multi-asset platform into futures, equities, tokenized assets, and payments.

Crypto prices today: muted moves across altcoins amid risk aversion

Most major altcoins traded flat to lower on Wednesday as economic jitters kept investors cautious.

Ethereum — the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency — rose 1% to 3,027.24 dollars.

XRP, the third-largest token, remained nearly unchanged at 2.13 dollars.

Oil prices fell on Wednesday as a buildup in U.S. crude inventories deepened concerns about oversupply, though losses were limited by tightness in global fuel markets following attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.

Brent crude futures dropped 71 cents, or 1%, to 64.18 dollars a barrel by 11:11 GMT, after rising 1.1% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 63 cents, also 1%, to 60.11 dollars, following a 1.4% gain on Tuesday.

According to market sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute, U.S. crude inventories rose by 4.45 million barrels in the week ending 14 November. Gasoline stocks increased by 1.55 million barrels, while distillate inventories climbed by 577,000 barrels.

Commodity analysts at ING said the report was “generally bearish,” but noted that “market participants appear more concerned about supply risks than the prospect of future oversupply.”

PVM analyst John Evans said Tuesday’s price gains were driven by a tightening diesel market, caused by reduced Russian exports.

U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil include a deadline on 21 November for companies to halt dealings with the two major Russian firms.

The U.S. Treasury said Monday that the sanctions—which are already squeezing Russian oil revenues—are expected to curtail the country’s export volumes. Buyers in China and India have already begun shifting to alternative suppliers.

Those supply concerns have been balanced by analysts’ expectations that current global oil production exceeds demand, which is weighing on prices.

Following recent Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure and port facilities, European diesel refining margins surged on Tuesday to their highest level since September 2023, amid a broader rise in global refining spreads.

Official U.S. inventory data will be released later on Wednesday. A Reuters poll of eight analysts showed expectations for crude stockpiles to have fallen by an average of 600,000 barrels during the week ending 14 November.