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Loonie falls to 1-week low with jobs data in focus

Economies.com
2019-11-08 12:09PM UTC

The Canadian dollar fell against the greenback on Friday, and hit a 1-week low as the US currency surged against most currencies, ahead of important data on the Canadian labor market, which provides insight on the overall economic health of the Canadian economy and the odds of further rate cuts during this year.

 

USD/CAD rose by 0.3% to $1.3205 (the highest since October 30), after opening at $1.3171, with session-low of $1.3171.

 

Loonie gained 0.1% against the US dollar yesterday, its first gain in the 4 days, buoyed by oil prices rise to a month-and-a-half high.

 

The US dollar rose by 0.2% on Friday, to extend its gains for the fifth straight day, and hit a 3-week high of 98.23 points, to reflect the US currency robust performance against a basket of currencies.

 

This broad rally by the US dollar is due to the trade war risks receding in addition to the continued positive data and the strong US services sector data during October, which indicates that the US Federal Reserve will unlikely cut the interest rates for the fourth during this year.

 

Bank of Canada (BoC) hinted at the end of the October 30 meeting further rate cuts in line with its forecasts for an economic growth slowdown in the second half of this year, due to the state of uncertainty that cast its shadow around global trade disputes and the continued adjustment in the energy sector.

 

The bank confirmed closely monitoring the global geopolitical and economic developments to determine the extent of slowdown on the manufacturing and investment sectors through the appropriate course of monetary policy, adding that the economic flexibility will be increasingly tested as trade disputes continue.

 

The Bank of Canada kept the interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, which was widely expected, as it has raised rates three times in 2018 by 25 basis points each time, emphasizing its confidence in the economic growth path.

 

While in order to reassess the Canadian interest rate outlook for this year, investors are anticipating the release of the monthly jobs data for October, which is a key gauge of the Canadian economy's health during Q4 this year.

 

At 12:30 GMT, Canada's new jobs data will be released, with forecasts of the creation of 14.7K new jobs in October vs. 53.7K in September, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 5.5%.

Bitcoin falls for second straight day, remains range-bounded above $9,000 mark

Economies.com
2019-11-08 07:59AM UTC

Bitcoin fell in spot trading on Friday, to continue dropping for the second straight day, amidst the narrow volatility range above $9,000 which has been dominating Bitcoin trading for two weeks, as it was formed after a big rally by Bitcoin following the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's positive remarks about blockchain and the crypto industry.

 

At Bitstamp exchange, Bitcoin lost $123 or 1.3% to $9,086, after it opened at $9,209, with an intraday high of $9,253.  

 

Bitcoin dropped 1.6% yesterday, its second daily loss in 3 days, on profit taking from a 1-week high of $9,587.

 

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell by $2 billion today, to a total of $248 billion, as Bitcoin and most other major cryptos fell.

 

After Bitcoin posted a 5-week high of $10,350 nearly 2 weeks ago, volatility bounced back in a narrow range above the $9,000. 

 

As Bitcoin clearly needs further catalyst to gather momentum to jump to fresh highs above the $10,000 barrier. 

 

This large rally by Bitcoin came after positive remarks from the Chinese leader Xi Jinping about the blockchain technology and the crypto industry, as China is giving more positive news about the new industry.

 

The crypto market is still mainly focused on the positive news about China approach to the crypto industry, which is boosting investments confidence levels in the nascent industry.

 

The latest of such is new official Chinese documents revealed that Bitcoin mining will no longer face prohibition by the government, as the documents show that mining is no longer on the list of undesirable industries.

 

The Chinese National Development and Reform Commission has removed cryptocurrency mining from the list of industries it wants to eliminate.

 

This new development comes within China’s new Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalog, which will take effect by the beginning of 2020.

 

As for investment in Bitcoin, the payments giant "Square" reported its earnings in the third quarter of 2019, with a profit of $2 million from Bitcoin sales through its Square’s Cash App for Bitcoin investment, as the company's revenues reached $148 million against $146 million in costs.

 

The company stated that Bitcoin buyers through the application almost doubled in Q3, in addition to orders for BTC cards sharply increasing.

 

Otherwise, Huobi exchange stated that it will freeze all of its US customers' accounts starting from November 13th, and said that its user agreement expressly prohibits customers in the U.S. from using its trading platform.

 

Huobi notified the customers that they will be refunded in Bitcoin and and other cryptos, and told the ones who have borrowed funds in margin trading to return their loans and withdraw any crypto assets in their accounts.

Oil drops more than 1.5% amid doubts over US-China trade deal

Economies.com
2019-11-08 13:18PM UTC

Oil prices deepend losses as the US market opened on Friday, to drop more than 1.5% on profit-taking from a 6-week high, in addition to growing uncertainty over the first phase of the trade deal between the US and China, after news reports about a stiff opposition for the tariffs removal in the White House, in addition to US oversupply concerns after a massive surge in inventories and production levels remaining at its all-time highest levels.

 

WTI shed more than 1.5% to $56.07 a barrel from the opening of $57.01, with a session-high of $57.09, and Brent dropped 1.9% to $61.11 a barrel, from the opening of $62.31, with a high of $62.38.

 

Yesterday, WTI gained 1.2% and posted a 6-week high of $57.84, and Brent futures rose by 0.9% and posted the highest since September 24 at $63.28.

 

China's Ministry of Commerce stated on Thursday that the US and China agreed over the last two weeks to eliminate the tariffs imposed by the two countries during the long-running trade war. 

 

A US official confirmed the statements later, without disclosing a timetable for the removal phases, which may still be a hurdle between the two countries.

 

But the latest update regarding the matter on Friday is that the tariffs removal plan faces opposition in the White House and from outside advisers, according to Reuters quoted sources.

 

The sources added that the idea was not part of the October agreement between President Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.

 

These updates renewed doubts once again about the completion of the first phase trade deal, especially as China urged for removing the tariffs in order for Chinese leader Xi Jinping to formally decide the first phase.

 

It's widely expected that in case of the US-China trade war end by a final deal, the global economic outlook will likely improve in addition to oil demand.

 

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that oil inventories rose by about 7.9 million barrels during the week ending in November 1, beating forecasts of 1.9 million barrels.

 

The total US commercial inventories rose to 447.2 million barrels, the highest level since the week ending in July 12, which indicates that domestic demand has weakened in the US, while the production levels remained unchanged from last week at its all-time record high of 12.6 million barrels per day.

Silver plumbs 3-month low on robust dollar

Economies.com
2019-11-08 11:44AM UTC

Silver prices fell during the European session on Friday, to continue to nosedive for the second straight day to 3-month trough, and head for the largest weekly loss in 3 years, on the US dollar surge and the weak demand on safe havens.

 

Silver prices fell by 1.2% to $16.89 an ounce (the lowest since August 20th), from the opening of $17.09, with a session-high of $17.11.

 

The white metal shed 2.8% yesterday, its third loss in 4 days, as most dollar-dominated metals fell.

 

During this week, silver prices have lost 6.75% so far, on its way for first weekly loss in a month and the largest weekly loss since October 2016.

 

Otherwise, the US dollar rose by 0.2% on Friday, to extend its gains for the fifth straight day, and hit a 3-week high of 98.23 points, to reflect the US currency robust performance against a basket of currencies.

 

 This broad rally by the US dollar is due to the trade war risks receding in addition to the continued positive data and the strong US services sector data during October, which indicates that the US Federal Reserve will unlikely cut the interest rates for the fourth during this year.

 

Silver also fell under pressure this week after demand on safe havens has weakened sharply due to the positive developments in the US-China trade talks and the near signing of the first phase trade deal, which was clear in the broad rally in most global stock markets, chief among these is Wall Street's jump to all-time highs.