Let’s start with the conclusion: the wave of cancellations hitting large-scale hydrogen projects is not a catastrophe—it’s a sign of progress. The sector is maturing quickly, shedding glossy proposals and players unwilling to adapt, while leaving space for quiet, effective pioneers.

The Hype Bubble Has Burst—And That’s a Good Thing

Between 2021 and 2023, demand for low-carbon hydrogen remained marginal—under one million tonnes compared with total global hydrogen demand of 97 million tonnes, still mostly fossil-based. At the same time, the “Hydrogen Insights 2024” report noted a seven-fold increase in global electrolysis capacity that passed final investment decision (FID) over four years, though still modest at around 20 GW.

In Europe, 3 GW of electrolyser capacity has cleared FID, expected to deliver about 415,000 tonnes of renewable hydrogen annually. By contrast, blue hydrogen projects have seen over 1.4 million tonnes per year cancelled, with only ~400,000 tonnes per year surviving to FID. The lesson is clear: oversized ideas that fail basic economics don’t survive.

This correction is healthy. Projects moving forward are smaller, better designed, and directly tied to decarbonisation needs.

Real Hydrogen: Focused and Practical Projects

Take Engie’s Yuri project in Western Australia: Phase 1 involves a 10 MW electrolyser powered by 18 MW of solar and backed by an 8 MW battery. It will supply ~640 tonnes of renewable hydrogen annually to Yara’s ammonia production. Unflashy, but effective—demand is clear, production is underway.

In Europe, Engie has also greenlit its share of the mosaHYc hydrogen pipeline between France and Germany, while the H2Med/Barmar corridor between Barcelona and Marseille is targeting up to 2 million tonnes a year by 2030. Germany’s Lubmin ammonia-to-hydrogen terminal aims for final approval by end-2025, targeting costs near $3–3.50/kg by 2027—well below current European levels of $8–10/kg.

These are not megaprojects chasing headlines. They are industrially anchored solutions, fitting into hard-to-abate sectors such as ammonia, methanol, refining, and steelmaking.

Why Smaller is Smarter

Failed megaprojects often lacked clear offtake, relied on unproven technologies, or pursued unrealistic scale. By contrast, today’s survivors are embedded in existing industrial demand, with clear economics. Blue hydrogen, for instance, can be produced in Europe at €3.8–4.4/kg—far cheaper than most green hydrogen.

This shift means fewer projects overall, but stronger, more sustainable ones—designed to deliver real industrial decarbonisation rather than speculative hype.

Policy Support Becomes More Targeted

Policy frameworks are also maturing. The EU’s Hydrogen Bank is directing funds to projects with genuine emission-reduction value. Germany’s KfW is financing import terminals rather than forcing uneconomic domestic production. Public money is being channelled where hydrogen is needed most.

A Smaller, Better Hydrogen Economy

The hydrogen economy will likely be smaller than early, exaggerated forecasts suggested. But that is a strength, not a weakness.

A leaner sector that displaces fossil-based hydrogen, cuts emissions in heavy industry, and builds on solid engineering is far preferable to a sprawl of doomed giga-projects. What matters now is not thousands of ideas, but a handful of excellent ones. Let the bad ones die. Let the noise fade. What remains is real.

US stock indexes declined at the start of Wednesday’s session as investors digested retail earnings and awaited the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes.

Target shares dropped 10.7% to $94.13 after the retailer reported weaker quarterly sales and announced the appointment of a new CEO who will assume his role in February.

The Fed’s minutes are due later today, with markets watching for signals on monetary policy amid continued pressure from the Trump administration for rate cuts.

By 15:08 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% (75 points) to 44,847. The broader S&P 500 dropped 0.8% (53 points) to 6,359, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.6% (341 points) to 20,966.

Copper prices fell on Wednesday to their lowest level in nearly two weeks as investment funds moved to sell, while consumers and producers remained cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech later this week, according to metals traders.

Commodity and financial markets are awaiting signals from Powell’s remarks on Friday regarding whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 16–17 meeting, a move that could weigh on the dollar. A weaker US currency typically boosts demand for dollar-denominated metals, a dynamic fund managers are exploiting in daily trading strategies that rely on algorithmic signals.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange slipped 0.1% to $9,676 per metric ton by 10:23 GMT, after earlier touching $9,673.50, its lowest since August 7. Alistair Munro, senior base metals strategist at Marex, noted that “systematic flows are dominating the market in the absence of broader participation,” adding that expectations remain uncertain with the market struggling to gain direction.

Longer-term concerns over demand, particularly from China — the world’s largest copper consumer — have widened the discount between spot copper and the three-month contract to around $100 per ton, the highest since February. Weak appetite is also reflected in the Yangshan copper premium, a key gauge of China’s import demand, which has fallen to $47 per ton compared with levels above $100 in May. Technically, upward resistance is seen around $9,475 per ton, where the 21- and 50-day moving averages converge.

Traders also reported fund selling in aluminum, which briefly broke below its 200-day moving average at $2,565 per ton. Three-month aluminum earlier touched a two-week low at $2,558 before recovering 0.2% to $2,569.

Among other metals, zinc rose 0.2% to $2,773, while lead fell 0.3% to $1,967, tin slipped 0.2% to $33,780, and nickel dropped 0.5% to $14,935 per ton.

Bitcoin extended its losses to hit a two-week low on Wednesday, as investors cut positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium and weighed geopolitical risks linked to potential talks between Russia and Ukraine.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell 1.1% to $113,728.5 by 2:03 a.m. Eastern Time (06:03 GMT). It was near a six-week low after dropping to $112,668 earlier in the session.

Bitcoin had climbed above a record $124,000 last week, but fell sharply after strong US economic data reduced bets on a major interest rate cut next month.

Jackson Hole Symposium and Possible Russia-Ukraine Talks

Markets are now focused on the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, where Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday.

A decisively hawkish tone or guidance contradicting expectations for a September rate cut could place additional pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Traders have already pared back expectations for a large September cut, with futures currently pricing in only a 25-basis-point reduction.

Geopolitical developments also added to the pressure. On Monday, President Donald Trump hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders to discuss future peace efforts. Trump said he is arranging direct talks with both Moscow and Kyiv, hinting at a possible trilateral summit.

While any credible negotiating path would support global risk sentiment in the long run, current uncertainty has weighed on the cryptocurrency market.

Fed Official Comments on Digital Asset Ownership

Michelle Bowman, the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision, said on Tuesday that central bank staff should be allowed to own small “de minimis” amounts of cryptocurrencies and digital assets.

She added that such a change would give regulators practical experience and strengthen their ability to oversee emerging financial technologies.

Bowman stressed that while risks are inherent in these assets, they must be balanced against potential benefits and not dismissed out of excessive caution.

Her remarks reflect a more engaged regulatory approach toward digital assets under the current administration.

What’s Next After Bitcoin’s Decline?

Bitcoin’s outlook appears weaker following a roughly 10% correction from its recent highs. The cryptocurrency hit a new record of $124,544 on August 14 but retreated after a brief breakout, posting a weekly low of $112,555 as profit-taking spread across the market alongside soft macroeconomic signals.

Tuesday’s drop saw Bitcoin break below the critical 50-day moving average support, which may now act as resistance.

Although the pullback is a natural reaction to the prior rally, the upcoming Fed meeting could significantly influence Bitcoin’s price. The crypto market had been in a bullish mode, driven by expectations of steep rate cuts, but those hopes are fading after mixed inflation data and strong jobs figures.

With the broader market entering a correction phase amid headwinds and macroeconomic uncertainty, second-layer infrastructure projects are gaining traction — including Bitcoin’s first Layer-2 solution, Bitcoin Hyper, which enhances the cryptocurrency’s utility and scalability.