SpaceX's highly anticipated initial public offering on Friday could mark a defining moment for global capital markets and may ultimately serve as a "referendum" on Elon Musk's leadership, according to market observers.

The company's targeted valuation of $1.75 trillion reflects a price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 100 times, compared with about 20 to 25 times for NVIDIA and around 10 times for Apple.

Nasdaq recently amended its listing rules to facilitate the inclusion of SpaceX and other companies planning mega IPOs into the Nasdaq-100 Index, while S&P Global declined to make exceptions that would allow the company early entry into the S&P 500 Index.

What voting rights will Elon Musk retain?

Investors are also being asked to accept exceptions related to the company's lofty valuation, as well as Musk's insistence on retaining an estimated 80% to 85% of SpaceX's voting rights, a governance structure that has often raised concerns among investors, even for companies with established profitability records.

Matt Calkins, chief executive of Appian, told CNBC that the IPO "represents a referendum on Elon Musk and how much confidence investors have in this entrepreneur."

"I think investors have tremendous confidence because he has accomplished so much, and they are betting on his ability to open entirely new markets," he said. "But it remains a very high-risk bet."

He added: "Personally, I have no desire to invest, nor would I even want to speculate on an IPO of this nature."

Calkins noted that markets remain in a very early stage marked by significant uncertainty and that many investments are currently driven more by conviction than by traditional financial fundamentals.

Ben Ritchie, head of equities at abrdn, wrote in a note on Thursday that the offering will test "how willing investors are to embrace a new model of public equity ownership based on elevated valuations, limited governance rights, and trust in a founder-led vision."

"That combination has worked before, but can it work at this scale?" he asked.

Could SpaceX shares reach $330?

Despite concerns over valuation, many investors remain optimistic about SpaceX's prospects in both the near and long term.

Analysts at New Street Research said in a note on Thursday that they expect the stock to reach $165 within 12 months of the IPO, implying a 22% gain and a valuation of approximately $2.3 trillion when factoring in the proposed acquisition of code-editing company Cursor.

"The opportunity within the space sector is enormous and diverse and will develop over more than a decade," the analysts wrote.

They added that their $2.3 trillion valuation assumes SpaceX captures roughly 75% of the addressable market based on their conservative growth estimates.

Under a more optimistic market-growth scenario, while assuming the company captures only 50% market share, they believe fair value could reach $330 per share.

James Dow, however, urged caution when assessing the company's long-term future.

"SpaceX's valuation depends on what the company will be doing 20 years from now," he told CNBC.

"But 20 years from now, Musk will be much older, and I don't know what role he will be playing at that point."

He added that SpaceX's value is "heavily tied to Musk himself, and I believe that is one of the company's biggest risks."

Retail investor orders exceed $100 billion

According to people familiar with the matter, retail investor demand for SpaceX shares has exceeded $100 billion as the potentially record-breaking IPO approaches its final stages.

The company is expected to allocate at least 20% of the offering to retail investors, according to sources who requested anonymity because the information remains confidential.

At a $75 billion offering size—the largest in history—such an allocation would still leave most retail demand unmet, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Demand has climbed from more than $70 billion, a figure Bloomberg reported earlier on Thursday, as orders continued to increase throughout the marketing period.

The more than $100 billion figure includes orders from retail investors both inside and outside the United States.

Major institutional investors, including sovereign wealth funds, have reportedly secured allocations exceeding $1 billion each.

Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund and Kuwait's Kuwait Investment Authority submitted large orders, while the Qatar Investment Authority is also expected to make a significant commitment, according to previous reports.

Market observers believe that if many Elon Musk supporters fail to receive sufficient allocations—or receive no shares at all—demand for the stock could surge once trading begins.

Musk has built a strong retail-investor following through his leadership of Tesla, whose shares are estimated to be about 40% owned by individual investors, according to BNP Paribas analyst James Picariello.

In 2020, Musk wrote on X: "I'm a big fan of small retail investors."

Referring to a potential IPO of Starlink, he added at the time: "I'll make sure they get top priority, and you can hold me to that."

Sources said the rocket, satellite, and artificial intelligence company has received orders from roughly 1,000 institutional investors.

The terms of the offering are unlikely to change, including the $135 share price and the planned issuance of 555.6 million shares.

SpaceX is expected to raise approximately $75 billion in a deal that values the company at around $1.8 trillion.

The company is also expected to allocate less than 10% of the shares to international investors, while the allocation reserved for Japan was reportedly increased this month to $2.5 billion from $2 billion.

Discussions remain ongoing, and some details of the offering—including the retail allocation percentage—could still change.

Banks are expected to stop accepting institutional orders before final pricing on Thursday, with trading scheduled to begin on Friday.

The deal is expected to become the largest IPO in history, surpassing the 2019 listing of Saudi Aramco, which raised $29.4 billion.

The offering could also pave the way for other giant AI-related IPOs. OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO on Monday, while Anthropic took a similar step last week.

According to Bloomberg calculations, the three companies could collectively add as much as $3.6 trillion in market value to US stock exchanges.

The IPO is being led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase, alongside 18 additional banks.

The company, formally known as Space Exploration Technologies, is expected to begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol "SPCX."

While markets have focused on the recent sharp decline in gold prices, the broader precious metals sector has also come under heavy selling pressure, with platinum group metals among the hardest hit, according to a report from Bank of America.

Both platinum and palladium recently fell to their lowest levels of the year as pressure from slowing global economic growth and geopolitical tensions continued to weigh on the sector.

Economic slowdown and Middle East tensions weigh on platinum group metals

The bank's commodity analysts said the rally in platinum group metals has lost momentum since late January, largely due to movements in gold and ongoing economic headwinds related to the Middle East conflict, which continue to negatively affect industrial demand for these metals.

Despite the recent weakness, the bank maintained its long-term bullish outlook for the sector, noting that it remains optimistic about gold heading into the fourth quarter. Bank of America believes any renewed rally in gold could draw investors back into platinum group metals and support prices.

Spot platinum fell to around $1,711 per ounce, down more than 2% during the session, while palladium traded near $1,203 per ounce, up roughly 0.5%.

Since the sharp selloff on Friday, platinum has lost more than 9% of its value, while palladium has fallen more than 6%.

Ambitious price targets despite weak industrial and jewelry demand

Despite current pressures, Bank of America still expects platinum to average around $3,000 per ounce between the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027.

The bank also forecasts palladium to average around $2,200 per ounce during the final three months of the year.

Platinum group metals delivered strong gains in 2025 as escalating global trade tensions and threats of tariffs on precious metals caused significant disruptions in physical market liquidity.

However, analysts noted that most of those concerns faded after tariff threats failed to materialize on a broad scale.

According to the report, the absence of tariffs led to more than 200,000 ounces of platinum leaving NYMEX warehouses, equivalent to roughly half of the inflows recorded during the second half of 2025.

Palladium experienced outflows in late January before sentiment reversed after the US Department of Commerce imposed final anti-dumping duties of 133% and countervailing duties of 109% on Russian palladium.

Structural shifts in demand

The bank also highlighted structural changes in demand for platinum group metals.

Platinum is expected to record a modest supply deficit this year, while palladium is projected to remain in a slight surplus.

Analysts pointed to China's rapid shift toward electric vehicles as a key source of market volatility, given the reduced demand for internal combustion engine vehicles, which rely heavily on platinum group metals in catalytic converters.

Electric vehicles are expected to account for about 40% of China's light-vehicle production this year, surpassing traditional combustion-engine vehicles for the first time. Conventional vehicles are projected to represent 36% of production, while hybrid vehicles account for the remaining 24%.

Production of internal combustion engine vehicles in China has already fallen to around 14 million units in 2025, compared with 21 million units in 2020.

By contrast, the transition toward electric vehicles remains slower in Europe and the United States, particularly after Washington rolled back some of its earlier electrification initiatives.

Weak jewelry demand in China

Demand for platinum jewelry has also slowed, particularly in China, where elevated inventories accumulated during the manufacturing boom of mid-2025 continue to weigh on the market.

Although some of those inventories have been recycled, retailers still hold large stockpiles amid weak consumer demand, increasing the risk of a significant contraction in Chinese jewelry manufacturing volumes this year.

Energy costs threaten South African production

Despite uncertainty surrounding global demand, Bank of America believes supply-side risks could become increasingly important in the coming period.

The bank noted that persistent Middle East tensions, higher energy prices, and inflationary pressures could negatively affect production, particularly in South Africa, one of the world's largest producers of platinum group metals.

South Africa depends heavily on imported oil and continues to face constraints in domestic refining capacity, making its mining sector highly sensitive to rising fuel costs.

Diesel remains widely used in mining operations, transportation networks, and backup power generation, especially amid the country's ongoing electricity shortages.

Diesel prices have surged since the conflict began, while state-owned utility Eskom increased electricity tariffs by 8.76% effective April 2026, significantly raising mining costs.

In this context, Sibanye-Stillwater reported a 13% year-over-year increase in unit operating costs during the first quarter, citing ongoing inflationary pressures, including higher labor and energy expenses.

During Thursday's trading session, spot palladium rose 1.5% to $1,264 per ounce as of 16:00 GMT.

US producer prices increased more than expected in May, posting their largest annual gain in three and a half years as energy costs climbed due to the conflict in the Middle East.

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday that the Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.1% in May, matching a downwardly revised increase of 1.1% in April.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the index to rise just 0.7%, following a previously reported 1.4% jump in April.

On an annual basis, producer prices increased 6.5% in the twelve months through May, marking the largest gain since November 2022.

Most of the increase was driven by higher goods prices, particularly energy products. Goods prices rose 2.8% and accounted for roughly 80% of the overall increase in the index, while services prices advanced 0.3%.

The US-Israeli war against Iran has driven up energy product prices, including gasoline and diesel. Global supply chains have also come under pressure due to restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to shortages across a broad range of products, including fertilizers, aluminum, and consumer goods.

On Wednesday, the US government reported that consumer inflation climbed above 4% in May for the first time in three years.

The Federal Reserve monitors the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index as its preferred gauge for achieving its 2% inflation target.

The acceleration in inflation, combined with a resilient labor market, has led financial markets to increase pricing for the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike. However, many economists still believe the likelihood of additional monetary tightening remains limited, arguing that the oil-price shock is still largely confined to the transportation sector.

The US central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate within the 3.50%-3.75% range at next week's meeting, although policymakers are expected to abandon their previous bias toward future rate cuts.

Following the release of consumer inflation data, economists estimated that the PCE Price Index rose 0.4% in May, matching the increase recorded in April.

The annual PCE inflation rate is also expected to accelerate to 4.0% in May, the fastest pace since May 2023, compared with 3.8% in April.

The European Central Bank announced its interest rate decision on Thursday at the conclusion of its June 10-11 policy meeting, raising rates by 25 basis points to 2.40%.

The move marks the first interest rate increase in the eurozone since July 2023 and was broadly in line with market expectations.