Despite some fluctuations and recurring concerns about oversupply, the global bauxite market continues to grow steadily. Much of this expansion is driven by rising demand in the aluminum sector, particularly from the automotive, aviation, and renewable energy industries.

Around 60% of electric vehicle manufacturers and 70% of aerospace materials companies use aluminum in various forms. Moreover, about 85% of bauxite is consumed in alumina production. Given these dynamics, the global alumina and bauxite market is projected to grow from $84.51 billion in 2025 to $125.91 billion by 2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of 5.11%. This signals major investment opportunities but also the potential for volatility, according to MetalMiner’s weekly report on supply chain disruptions.

United States and China in a Race for Supplies

Industry analysts highlight a structural shift in the bauxite and aluminum market. While the United States is expanding its domestic mining capacity, China is tightening its grip on global bauxite resources.

China is the world’s largest aluminum producer, consuming more than 60% of globally traded bauxite, primarily sourced from Guinea and Australia. By contrast, the United States relies heavily on imports, with about 75% of its bauxite supply coming from overseas. With global demand for aluminum continuing to rise, Washington is now seeking to reduce its dependence on foreign supplies.

Historically, the United States and North America have relied on the Asia-Pacific region, which dominates the global market with 45% of reserves. However, Africa and the Middle East are also key players, with Guinea alone accounting for 24% of global reserves. While Australia leads in exports, China dominates refining, followed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Guinea’s Recent Moves

In a decisive step to tighten control over its mineral resources, Guinea recently revoked a major concession from Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), a subsidiary of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), citing the company’s failure to build a promised alumina refinery. Under a presidential decree, exploitation rights at the Boké concession were transferred to a newly established state-owned entity, Nimba Mining Company, for 25 years.

GAC, which exported 18 million tons in 2024, plans to challenge the decision through international arbitration, calling the termination “unlawful.” Analysts warn this development could shift market dynamics, particularly for the United States, which partly depends on Guinean bauxite for its supply chain.

Fresh Investments

While the U.S. works to expand its domestic mining footprint, major players in the aluminum industry continue to invest in new capacity. Rio Tinto has committed $180 million to boost bauxite output at its Amrun mine in Queensland, Australia, with initial production expected in 2027 and full ramp-up by 2028.

Price Outlook

The relative stability in the bauxite and aluminum markets was reflected in steady global bauxite prices during Q2 2025, shaped by a mix of supply chain disruptions, environmental regulations, and strong demand from the aluminum sector.

In the U.S., prices held at around $82 per ton, supported by steady demand from smelters and refractory industries. However, reliance on imports and shipping delays have raised costs, while environmental regulations and labor shortages continue to weigh on mining operations. In China, prices climbed to $99 per ton on the back of robust industrial demand and domestic supply disruptions. At the same time, limited imports and delayed shipments from Southeast Asia and West Africa tightened supply.

With aluminum demand accelerating and countries such as the U.S. and Australia investing in strategic supply chains, the bauxite market appears set for long-term growth. Still, challenges remain, including environmental hurdles such as the costly disposal of “red mud,” which can raise operational expenses by up to 50%, alongside geopolitical risks that could trigger fresh price volatility.

U.S. stock indexes declined at the start of trading on Tuesday – the first session of September – in conjunction with the rise in Treasury yields and concerns over tariffs.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose by 5.5 basis points to 4.281%, while the yield on 30-year bonds increased by 4.6 basis points to 4.964%.

This comes after a federal appeals court ruled on Friday that most of the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump were illegal, which caused further uncertainty regarding U.S. policy decisions.

By 16:14 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1% (equivalent to 431 points) to 45,113 points, the S&P 500 Index dropped by 1.2% (equivalent to 79 points) to 6,380 points, while the Nasdaq Composite Index declined by 1.5% (equivalent to 320 points) to 21,135 points.

Palladium prices rose during Tuesday’s trading despite a stronger U.S. dollar against most major currencies, supported by expectations of a global supply shortage.

Sibanye-Stillwater, based in Johannesburg with operations in the U.S. and South Africa, has petitioned to impose tariffs on Russian palladium imports — a move that could further heighten price volatility. The company noted that Russian palladium is being sold below market value, particularly since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. CEO Neal Froneman said tariffs would ensure a fairer competitive environment for the U.S. PGMs industry. A ruling on the petition is expected within 13 months.

Russia’s Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), which controls 40% of global mined palladium, declined to comment. Sibanye-Stillwater itself booked a second consecutive annual loss last year, including a $500 million writedown on its U.S. palladium assets amid weak prices.

Spot palladium has risen 31% year-to-date, with analysts surveyed by Reuters expecting 2025 to mark the first annual gain in four years, driven by support from platinum. Still, Heraeus analysts warned that tariffs on Russian metal might not alter the supply-demand balance, but could redirect global trade flows and increase volatility.

According to Trade Data Monitor, Russia and South Africa remain the primary suppliers of palladium to the U.S., with China ranking second to the U.S. as a key buyer of Russian metal. U.S. imports of Russian palladium rose 42% year-on-year to exceed 500,000 troy ounces between January and May.

Palladium and PGMs are widely used in catalytic converters for gasoline vehicles. So far, Russian palladium has avoided U.S. sanctions tied to the Ukraine war, as well as import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump.

In a separate development, CME FedWatch data shows markets are pricing in an 86% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.4% to 98.1 by 15:45 GMT, touching a high of 98.6 and a low of 97.6. Futures for December palladium gained 2.5% to $1,152.5 per ounce at the same time.

Bitcoin traded near the $110,000 level in early dealings on Tuesday, amid declining spot and futures trading volumes alongside weaker on-chain activity, signaling mounting selling pressure.

Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, said in a report released Monday that Bitcoin’s consolidation around $110,000 is taking place as selling pressure rises across the market. The report noted that Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) dropped from 37.4 to 33.6 last week, placing it in oversold territory and pointing to increasing downside pressure. Glassnode analysts also highlighted that spot trading volumes fell about 9% to $7.7 billion, reflecting weak investor participation and uncertainty in market sentiment.

Analysts added: “Falling volumes during price moves often reflect weak conviction behind the latest trend, which points to uncertainty in the market. Limited participation makes it clear that selling pressure continues to dominate.”

The report also pointed to declining open interest in futures and options last week, reflecting “a shift toward risk-averse behavior” after Bitcoin’s retreat from recent highs.

Glassnode further noted an increase in the influence of short-term holders (STH), with their supply ratio to long-term holders (LTH) rising from 17.0% to 17.7%. This signals a more volatile environment, as short-term holders tend to engage in speculative behavior and reactive decisions.

This uptick in selling pressure comes despite strong buying from corporate holders and U.S.-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which reversed nearly $1 billion in outflows to register $396 million in inflows last week.

By contrast, Carmelo Aleman, an analyst at CryptoQuant, said the market has not yet reached a cycle top. He explained that previous Bitcoin bull cycles often included sharp corrections before prices rallied to new highs, making the current pullback healthy. He added that institutional adoption of Bitcoin and growing interest in tokenization could drive prices higher in the coming months.

Aleman cited the network value-to-transactions ratio (NVT), which compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to on-chain transaction volume, noting it has stayed below 50 since July 7, reflecting robust activity and strong growth potential. He also pointed out that the market value-to-realized value (MVRV) ratio has not yet reached levels typically associated with cycle tops, indicating prices “have not yet entered a blow-off stage.”

Bitcoin was trading at $110,300 in early Asian trading on Tuesday, recovering from a dip toward $107,000.

Four Factors Shaping Bitcoin’s Path in September

Bitcoin closed August with a red monthly candle, its first after four straight months of gains. September carries particular significance as it marks the end of the third quarter and provides key price signals for analysts on expectations for the rest of the year. What are the main factors likely to shape Bitcoin’s trajectory this month?

1. ETF flows could repeat the pattern seen at the start of the year

Analyst Yonsei_dent noted that U.S. Bitcoin ETF flows are closely tied to price action, observing that flows in the past two months resemble early 2025 dynamics. Despite price weakness in January–February 2025, ETF holdings stayed relatively stable, but once they dropped sharply, prices fell in tandem.

The analyst warned that a similar scenario could unfold in September: “We see a similar structure forming in July–August. Bitcoin retreated after setting a new all-time high, but ETF holdings have remained steady — so far. If deeper outflows begin, Bitcoin may face further downside pressure.”

According to SoSoValue, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows of over $126 million on August 29, ending a four-day positive streak and signaling weakening capital inflows.

2. Heavy whale selling versus Ethereum (ETH) accumulation

A second factor is the shifting behavior of major holders. On-chain data showed them selling large amounts of Bitcoin in exchange for Ethereum. Lookonchain reported that one major Bitcoin OG sold 4,000 BTC ($435 million) and bought 96,859 ETH ($433 million) on the last day of August. On September 1, the same investor sold 2,000 BTC ($215 million) and purchased 48,942 ETH ($215 million). In total, this address has accumulated 886,371 ETH worth $4.07 billion.

This market trend, where whales rotate from BTC into ETH, signals a shift in investment outlook and may affect sentiment while prompting similar behavior among retail investors.

3. U.S. demand via the Coinbase Premium Index

This index measures the price gap between the U.S. market (Coinbase) and the global market (Binance). When positive, it reflects stronger U.S. investor demand. The index has dropped from 100 to 11.6 at the start of September. While still in positive territory, the decline points to weaker U.S. buying momentum.

Researchers at XWIN Research Japan said Bitcoin is holding above $100,000 with strong institutional support and a steadily rising long-term valuation floor, viewing current corrections not as weakness but as accumulation opportunities within a broader bullish structure.

4. U.S. money supply (M2) and Fed policy outlook

The fourth and potentially most decisive factor is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Markets expect a rate cut in September, which could channel liquidity toward risk assets like Bitcoin. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said: “Based on what I know today, I will support a 25-basis-point cut.”

According to Fred data, U.S. M2 money supply has hit a record $22.1 trillion. Historically, periods of rising money supply alongside lower interest rates have fueled powerful Bitcoin rallies. Investor Kyledoops remarked: “$22.1 trillion — a record high for U.S. money supply. The Fed may talk tough on tightening, but the printer hasn’t retired yet… Bitcoin is the hedge the market prepares for, not the one it reacts to.”

Conclusion

September could prove pivotal for Bitcoin, with four key factors at play: ETF flows, whale behavior, U.S. demand, and Fed policy. If positive drivers dominate, the asset may see a strong rebound; but persistent ETF outflows and heavy selling could extend downside pressure.

Monitoring these indicators closely will help traders catch early signals and avoid heavy losses from sudden volatility.