Taiwan’s liquefied natural gas crisis has shifted from a debate about energy diversification into a real test of the island’s energy security. Taiwan relies on imports for 99% of its natural gas needs, and during 2025 around one-third of its 23.6 million tons of LNG imports came from the Gulf region — mainly Qatar, which supplied roughly 8 million tons, in addition to 200,000 tons from the UAE.

But with Qatari gas production halted and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, LNG tankers already loaded with cargo became trapped inside the Gulf, leaving Taiwan without any gas shipments from Qatar or the UAE during April and May. For an economy where gas-fired power plants generate nearly half of total electricity output, this represents a direct blow to the fuel that was supposed to make the power grid cleaner, more flexible, and more secure.

Despite the severity of the situation, the crisis has not yet fully appeared in the import figures. Taiwan imported 1.9 million tons of LNG in April, close to last year’s levels, although lower than the 2.03 million tons imported in March. Much of this apparent stability came from a record surge in US supplies, as American LNG shipments jumped from around 200,000 tons in March to 700,000 tons in April — the largest monthly volume of US gas imports in Taiwan’s history.

The United States has effectively become Taiwan’s emergency supply line, but spot cargoes do not offer the same stability as long-term Qatari contracts. They are also more expensive and far more exposed to global competition and price volatility.

Australia remains the second pillar of Taiwan’s gas supply network. Taiwan imported around 8 million tons of Australian LNG in 2025, and these volumes have remained stable over the past three years thanks to long-term contracts. However, Australia cannot fully replace the missing Gulf supply, especially with mounting domestic pressure on gas availability and Canberra’s decision to reserve 20% of gas exports for the domestic market starting in 2027.

Taiwan’s state-owned CPC Corporation, which handles LNG imports, confirmed it is trying to reduce dependence on the Middle East after signing a new US contract that will provide an additional 1.2 million tons annually. However, this remains a medium-term solution and cannot quickly replace lost Gulf shipments.

Although Russian gas could theoretically provide a practical alternative, Taiwanese authorities are avoiding that option for political reasons. Taiwan imported four cargoes from Russia’s Yamal project in 2025 totaling 350,000 tons, but it currently has no plans to increase Russian imports, despite having imported between 1.8 and 2 million tons annually from Russia before the Ukraine war.

The impact of the crisis is becoming increasingly visible in Taiwan’s electricity market. Monthly power generation averaged around 24.1 terawatt-hours during 2025, with gas-fired plants accounting for roughly 50% of that output. Of Taiwan’s total LNG consumption of 23.8 million tons, around 20 million tons go directly toward electricity generation, representing about 85.5% of total LNG usage.

If the loss of Qatari and Emirati shipments continues without stable replacements starting in June, Taiwan could lose more than 2 terawatt-hours of electricity generation per month — nearly 10% of total monthly demand. That could force difficult decisions regarding electricity allocation priorities, particularly during peak summer consumption.

The situation is further complicated by Taiwan’s broader energy transition strategy. The island had planned to phase out coal gradually, targeting an energy mix of 20% renewables, 30% coal, and 50% gas by 2025, while halting the construction of new coal-fired plants. But the fuel intended to replace coal — natural gas — is now itself in short supply.

As a result, coal has re-emerged as the most realistic emergency solution, similar to what is happening across several Asian economies. Coal plants currently account for about 35% of Taiwan’s electricity generation, while four units at the Hsinta power station, with combined capacity of roughly 2 gigawatts, were placed into emergency standby mode between 2023 and 2025. Those units can now generate around 1 terawatt-hour per month to offset part of the gas shortage.

Yet coal is far from a perfect solution. Taiwan’s coal imports fell to 4.5 million tons in April, the lowest level in five years, while Australian coal prices rose 25% year-over-year to $130 per ton. Taiwan is also competing with China and Japan for alternative coal supplies amid the broader global gas crisis.

Nuclear power, which was supposed to provide a strategic long-term solution, will not be ready in time. Taiwan’s state utility has proposed restarting the Kuosheng and Maanshan nuclear plants, which were shut down after their operating licenses expired in 2023 and 2025. If fully restarted, the four reactors could add around 30 terawatt-hours annually, but a full restart before 2028 appears unrealistic.

As a result, Taiwan now finds itself in a fragile position, relying on a patchwork of emergency US LNG shipments, limited Australian contracts, reserve coal stations, and a delayed nuclear option.

Authorities insist supplies are secured through September via spot purchases and Australian contracts, but media reports indicated official gas reserves were equivalent to only 11 days of consumption in early May, highlighting how narrow the safety margin has become.

The danger extends far beyond rising energy prices. Taiwan’s economy depends heavily on semiconductor manufacturing and solar panel production — two industries critical to the global economy and the clean energy transition. If the crisis worsens, industrial users are likely to face power rationing first, as governments typically prioritize households and residential consumers, potentially triggering another global semiconductor supply shock.

Taiwan’s energy transition over recent years was built around natural gas as a cleaner and more sustainable alternative to coal. But the Hormuz crisis is now exposing the scale of the risks embedded in that strategy.

The Canadian dollar fell for a seventh straight session against its US counterpart on Thursday, marking its longest daily losing streak since January, as the gap between Canadian and US bond yields continued to widen.

The Canadian dollar weakened by 0.1% to C$1.3720 per US dollar, or 72.89 US cents, after touching its weakest level since April 16 at C$1.3737 during the session.

Kevin Ford, FX and macro strategist at Convera, said the rise in USD/CAD to a four-week high was mainly driven by the “relative momentum divergence” between the two economies.

He added that hotter-than-expected US inflation data reinforced market bets that US interest rates will remain elevated for longer, while Canada lacked strong economic data this week capable of offsetting the impact of last Friday’s weak employment figures.

The US dollar index continued to strengthen against a basket of major currencies after economic data supported expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year.

The spread between US and Canadian two-year government bond yields widened to around 105 basis points in favor of US Treasuries, the largest gap since January 22, boosting the attractiveness of the US dollar as the higher-yielding currency.

Data released Friday showed the Canadian economy lost 17,700 jobs in April, while the unemployment rate rose to a six-month high of 6.9%, signaling continued weakness in the labor market amid ongoing trade uncertainty.

This uncertainty also weighed on Canada’s housing market, as home sales rose only slightly by 0.7% in April compared with March following a weak start to the month, while prices edged lower, according to data released Thursday by the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Meanwhile, oil prices — one of Canada’s key exports — provided some support to the Canadian dollar, rising around 0.6% to $101.65 per barrel.

Canadian government bond yields declined across the curve, with the 10-year yield falling 4 basis points to 3.532%, trading near the midpoint of its range since the beginning of the month.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached fresh record highs on Thursday, supported by gains in Nvidia shares, while investors monitored economic data and developments from the high-stakes summit between the United States and China.

Nvidia shares rose about 3%, lifting the company’s market value to roughly $5.6 trillion, after Reuters reported, citing sources, that the United States had allowed around 10 Chinese companies to purchase the company’s H200 AI chip, its second most powerful processor.

At the same time, Cisco shares surged about 14.7% to a record high after the networking equipment company announced plans to cut nearly 4,000 jobs as part of a restructuring plan, while also raising its annual revenue forecast due to stronger demand from hyperscale computing companies.

The latest gains in technology stocks, particularly semiconductor companies, pushed US equities to new record levels despite ongoing concerns surrounding the Middle East war and rising inflation driven by higher oil prices.

Data showed US retail sales rose 0.5% in April, in line with expectations, although part of the increase was likely driven by higher prices as the Iran war pushed up energy and essential goods costs.

David Russell, head of global market strategy at TradeStation, said the US consumer is not in recession but is also no longer driving economic growth, noting that elevated inflation, tariffs, and demographic changes have weakened retail spending as a growth engine.

He added that current retail data gives the Federal Reserve no reason to cut interest rates, keeping the bias toward higher rates intact, while noting that the consumer remains resilient enough to rule out near-term easing.

Additional data also showed a moderate rise in weekly jobless claims, suggesting the labor market remains relatively stable.

By 9:54 a.m. Eastern Time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained around 270 points, or 0.54%, to 49,963 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.38% to 7,472 points, while the Nasdaq advanced 0.35% to 26,495 points.

Nine of the 11 major sectors within the S&P 500 traded higher, led by the technology sector, which gained around 1%.

On the geopolitical front, Chinese President Xi Jinping told US President Donald Trump at the start of the two-day summit that trade talks were making progress, but warned that tensions over Taiwan could push relations onto a dangerous path and potentially lead to conflict.

Trump’s visit also comes amid the ongoing war with Iran, with a White House official saying the leaders of the world’s two largest economies agreed on the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq had already posted fresh record closing highs on Wednesday, extending the recent rally.

Stronger-than-expected inflation data this week, both for consumer and producer prices, also reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep monetary policy tighter for longer.

Traders are now pricing in more than a 28% probability of a quarter-point rate hike by year-end, up from 20.7% a week ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Bitcoin failed to hold above the $80,500 support zone, extending its negative movement and slipping below the $80,000 level, with additional losses pushing the cryptocurrency under $79,500.

Bitcoin dropped below $79,000, hitting a low at $78,720 before beginning to trade within a narrow range to consolidate losses. The price also posted a slight rebound above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the $81,250 high to the $78,720 low.

Bitcoin is currently trading below the $80,500 level and beneath the 100-hour simple moving average, reflecting continued short-term selling pressure.

If the price manages to stabilize above the $79,000 level, it could attempt another upward move. The first immediate resistance appears near the $80,000 level, which also aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest downward move.

The first major resistance stands near $80,500, while a bearish trendline is forming on the hourly chart with resistance near $80,700 for the BTC/USD pair.

If the price closes above the $80,700 level, it could open the door for further gains toward the $81,200 zone, while additional upside momentum may push the price toward $82,000, with the next resistance near $82,500.

Further downside possible

On the other hand, if Bitcoin fails to break above the $80,500 resistance zone, it could start another downward wave. Immediate support is located near the $79,200 level.

The first major support stands at $78,800, followed by another important support near $78,000. If selling pressure continues, the price could decline toward the $76,200 area in the near term.

The $75,500 level remains the key major support for now, as a break below it could make a short-term recovery significantly more difficult for Bitcoin.