The contours of the global hydrogen industry came into sharper focus this month during European Hydrogen Week in Brussels — particularly from the perspective of importing nations.

Yet, the mood was one of frustration. Many participants described Europe’s regulatory framework as overly complex and slow-moving, causing project delays and deterring investors. Still, there was an undercurrent of inevitability, given binding EU mandates and ongoing pipeline projects positioning Europe to become the world’s largest demand hub for low-carbon hydrogen.

Despite a rising number of project cancellations, the industry’s determination to move forward was evident.

Jorgo Chatzimarkakis, CEO of Hydrogen Europe, remarked that “the tourists have left,” referring to the exit of weaker projects from the market. He called for more realism in policy design, including mandatory minimum offtake agreements for heavy industries.

He noted that the hydrogen sector stands at a crossroads, urging policymakers to ease regulatory burdens so that a viable clean hydrogen market can finally take shape.

Projects and progress

The conference showcased several major initiatives. Among them was a long-term supply agreement between Germany’s RWE AG and France’s TotalEnergies, under which 30,000 metric tons of green hydrogen will be transported annually from a 300-megawatt electrolyzer in Lingen to Total’s refinery in Saxony-Anhalt via a 600-kilometer pipeline starting in 2030.

In Rotterdam, Shell presented updates on its 200-megawatt electrolyzer, designed to produce around 22,000 tons of green hydrogen per year, to be delivered through a new 30-kilometer pipeline to Shell’s Energy and Chemicals Park.

Ivana Jemelkova, CEO of the Hydrogen Council — an industry coalition of major corporate leaders — unveiled findings from the Global Hydrogen Compass, produced in collaboration with McKinsey & Company.

According to the report, committed investment in low-carbon hydrogen has surpassed $110 billion — a tenfold increase over the past five years — with roughly 500 projects having reached final investment decision, construction, or operational stages.

These projects are expected to support between 9 and 14 million tons of annual clean hydrogen capacity by 2030. China leads with $33 billion in committed capital, followed by North America with $23 billion, and Europe with $19 billion.

“The industry is in real build mode,” Jemelkova said, noting that 97% of CEOs view hydrogen as essential for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors.

Regulation and reaction

Senior representatives from Oman and India presented ambitious national hydrogen programs focused on domestic investment and market development as stepping stones to future exports.

However, they bluntly stated that compliance with current EU rules is “impossible,” calling for greater regulatory clarity from Brussels.

At the heart of the problem lies the source of electricity used for electrolysis.

The European Commission has issued what industry participants describe as excessively strict rules defining what qualifies as a “renewable fuel of non-biological origin” (RFNBO) under the updated Renewable Energy Directive (RED III).

EU targets require that 42% of hydrogen used in industry by 2030 be classified as RFNBO, rising to 60% by 2035. The criteria are built around three core principles:

• Additionality: renewable electricity used must come from new capacity, not existing plants.

• Temporal correlation: power and hydrogen production must occur within the same hour starting in 2028.

• Geographic correlation: both must be produced within the same region.

These rules apply to hydrogen made within Europe and to imports — a point many companies consider unworkable, as it artificially inflates costs.

Industry leaders are urging Brussels to delay the enforcement of additionality and temporal correlation requirements until viable business models can mature.

At the member-state level, implementation is even more complex, as national governments apply RED III through their own incentives, infrastructure, and certification systems — a slow process that has frustrated developers.

Werner Ponikwar, CEO of thyssenkrupp nucera, which supplies electrolysis equipment, said: “The industry needs clarity to plan. What we need from Brussels is a regulatory environment that enables progress, not one that blocks it.”

Building the backbone

RED III mandates binding renewable hydrogen quotas: EU members must integrate the 42% industrial target into their national energy and climate plans. The directive also includes sub-targets for transport and aviation to stimulate demand for hydrogen, its derivatives, and synthetic fuels.

In transport, member states must either cut fuel emission intensity or ensure that 29% of total energy use comes from renewables, with sub-quotas for hydrogen and bio- and synthetic fuels.

In aviation, sustainable fuel must reach at least 34% of total use by 2040, including a dedicated share for hydrogen-based synthetic fuels.

While shipping faces no direct quotas, it falls under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS).

These mandates are accelerating midstream infrastructure development. The EU has mapped five key hydrogen corridors — using new pipelines or repurposed gas lines — to form an integrated hydrogen commodity market centered on Germany.

The 600-kilometer RWE–TotalEnergies pipeline will form part of the North Sea Corridor, one of the first links in Germany’s emerging hydrogen grid, which will eventually connect to the Dutch network from Rotterdam.

When the stars align

Martin Tengler, head of hydrogen research at BloombergNEF, outlined how the market could scale.

Based on Bloomberg’s database of projects with binding offtake contracts, global hydrogen supply is expected to reach 5.5 million tons by 2030 — just 20% of announced national targets.

Tengler identified four “stars” that must align to drive the market forward:

• Financing: a greater share of the $270 billion in government subsidies must go toward stimulating demand.

• Demand incentives: tools like contracts for difference (CfDs) and binding quotas, which have yet to be deployed at scale.

• Carbon pricing: essential to make clean hydrogen competitive with gray hydrogen, though current carbon prices remain too low to matter before the 2030s.

• Midstream infrastructure: ports, pipelines, and storage facilities require continued public support.

He highlighted the RWE–TotalEnergies deal as a textbook case of this alignment — RWE received €690 million in German state aid, while Total faces RED III obligations and high carbon prices at home, compelling it to pay a premium over gray hydrogen costs.

Germany’s public funding for hydrogen pipeline infrastructure also enabled the agreement.

Resilience as a new demand driver

A major theme of the discussions was hydrogen’s role in enhancing economic resilience amid surging energy demand from data centers and ongoing geopolitical disruptions.

Domestically produced and stored low-carbon hydrogen was portrayed as a strategic fuel for Europe’s energy security, prompting governments to defend mandatory quotas and absorb infrastructure costs to support the nascent sector.

The concept of “resilience” may thus emerge as a new demand driver — complementing subsidies, mandates, and quotas — pushing Europe one step closer to its overarching goal of transforming low-carbon hydrogen into a competitive traded commodity underpinned by reduced regulatory and financial risks.

Copper prices hit a new all-time high of $11,200 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Wednesday, marking a historic rally fueled by a combination of macroeconomic and micro-level factors, alongside a strong return of investment funds to the market after months of caution.

Market data show that speculative long positions held by investment funds in LME copper futures have climbed to their highest level since March — just before what US President Donald Trump called “Liberation Day,” when he launched a wave of tariffs that roiled global markets.

Fears of a full-blown trade war between the United States and China — the world’s largest copper consumer — had heavily weighed on prices earlier in the year. However, the recent partial truce between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has eased some of that pressure, reviving investment appetite for the red metal.

On the supply side, challenges continue to mount. A report by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) warned that a string of disasters affecting global mines this year could lead to a refined copper supply deficit by 2026. With global inventories already shrinking, it’s easy to see why “Dr. Copper,” as the metal is often called, has returned to the spotlight.

Smart money returns

Following the turmoil in March, investment funds largely avoided copper, wary of potential US tariffs on refined metal. As a result, speculative positions on CME copper contracts fell to their lowest in a decade by August.

But as prices began to recover in August and major producers announced output cuts, long positions in LME copper jumped from 55,325 to 87,152 contracts, while short positions declined — a net shift equivalent to more than one million metric tons of buying pressure.

In the United States, open interest in CME copper also rose to a four-month high, though the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report remains unavailable due to the ongoing US government shutdown, complicating fund-flow tracking.

Inventory imbalance

Short positions on LME copper have nearly halved since April, as the sharp price rally forced momentum funds to unwind bearish bets.

Low inventory levels in LME warehouses have further discouraged short-selling, after the spread between cash prices and three-month futures briefly spiked to $224 per ton earlier this month.

Although the market has since returned to contango (where futures prices exceed spot prices), the current $25 spread remains well below August’s $90 level.

Meanwhile, the tariff standoff between Washington and Beijing continues to distort global trade flows. Despite the US delaying new tariffs on refined copper until next July, CME spot prices remain roughly $300 per ton higher than those on the LME — keeping the US import window open and drawing metal out of international markets.

According to Richard Holtom, CEO of Trafigura, shipments to US ports may have slowed but continue to drain LME inventories, which have fallen to just 135,350 tons from 159,000 tons in July. Off-warrant stocks are estimated at only 30,477 tons.

In China, refined copper exports plunged from 118,400 tons in July to 26,400 tons in September, mostly destined for Thailand and Vietnam — neither of which hosts LME-registered warehouses.

Volatility ahead

The persistent price gap between US and international copper reflects the ongoing tariff impact, a factor that could backfire on funds that have re-entered the market aggressively. Any shift in the trade outlook between Washington and Beijing could easily derail the current optimism.

Despite Trump’s description of his meeting with Xi as “tremendous,” markets remain uncertain whether the truce marks a lasting strategic shift or merely a tactical pause.

Copper prices slipped back below $11,000 per ton on Thursday morning as investors cautiously reassessed geopolitical and trade risks.

While fundamental factors such as supply and demand remain strongly supportive, the broader macro environment remains uncertain — suggesting that the bouts of price volatility seen this year are far from over.

Bitcoin moved slightly on Friday, heading for a monthly loss in October and breaking what investors call the “Uptober” trend — a seasonal rally the market has typically enjoyed. The decline came amid rising global risks and renewed trade tensions between the US and China, which dampened investor appetite for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin slipped 0.3% to $110,012, marking a monthly drop of around 3.7% in October.

Analysts said markets found little encouragement from the recent meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as a tangible trade agreement between the two nations remains distant.

The crypto market also faced additional pressure earlier in the week from the Federal Reserve’s hawkish comments, while the strong rally in US tech stocks — fueled by optimism over artificial intelligence — had little impact on Bitcoin’s movement.

A rare seasonal decline: “Uptober” fails for the first time since 2018

Contrary to expectations, Bitcoin is on track for its first October loss since 2018, a month historically seen as positive for digital assets.

This was partly driven by escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, which triggered a flash crash earlier this month from record highs. Since then, Bitcoin has failed to break above the $110,000 level, while spot and derivatives data show investors avoiding large positions.

Market indicators suggest cryptocurrencies have decoupled from US tech stocks in October, as the latter continue to rally to record highs on AI-driven momentum. For instance, the Nasdaq Composite is expected to post gains exceeding 4% this month.

Strong earnings for Bitcoin-linked firms

Shares of MicroStrategy Inc., the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, rose 6% in after-hours trading Thursday after the company reported stronger-than-expected results for the third quarter ended in September.

The firm said its performance was supported by record Bitcoin prices during the past three months.

CEO Michael Saylor reiterated his forecast that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of 2025.

Crypto exchange Coinbase Global Inc. also reported upbeat quarterly results, with strong growth in trading volumes during the third quarter pushing its shares higher on Thursday.

Broad decline in altcoins

Altcoins followed Bitcoin’s trajectory through October, posting steep losses.

Ethereum dropped 1.8% to $3,849.69, down 7% for the month. XRP fell 3%, bringing its monthly loss to 12.6%, while Solana declined 11% and Cardano plunged 24%, making it the worst performer among major tokens.

Binance Coin (BNB) was the notable exception, rising about 9% in October.

Among meme coins, Dogecoin slid 20% during the month, while $TRUMP gained roughly 9% following a sharp rally earlier this week.

Oil prices fell on Friday, heading for a third consecutive monthly loss, pressured by a stronger US dollar, weak economic data from China, and rising supplies from major producers around the world.

Brent crude futures dropped 38 cents, or 0.6%, to $64.62 a barrel by 10:08 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures slipped by a similar margin to $60.19 a barrel.

The losses came as the US dollar climbed to a three-month high against a basket of major currencies, making dollar-denominated commodities such as oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Falling prices in Asia and weak Chinese demand

Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, may cut its official selling prices to Asia in December to the lowest level in several months amid ample supply in the market — a move reflecting a further bearish tone.

Prices also came under pressure after an official Chinese survey showed manufacturing activity contracting for the seventh straight month in October, reinforcing concerns over slowing demand in the world’s second-largest oil consumer.

High supply and lower prices

Both Brent and WTI are on track to end October about 3.5% lower, as OPEC and major non-OPEC producers continue to increase output in a bid to defend market share.

Analysts noted that the additional supply could offset the impact of Western sanctions on Russian oil exports to China and India — the two biggest importers of Russian crude.

Leaked reports suggest the OPEC+ alliance is leaning toward another small production increase in December, according to sources familiar with internal discussions ahead of the group’s meeting on Sunday.

Since the start of the recent series of monthly increases, eight member states of the alliance have raised their collective output targets by over 2.7 million barrels per day — roughly 2.5% of global supply.

Record output in Saudi Arabia and the United States

Data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed Saudi crude exports reached 6.407 million barrels per day in August, the highest in six months.

In the United States, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported record production of 13.6 million barrels per day last week, intensifying concerns about a potential supply glut in global markets.

US–China: Unclear energy agreement

US President Donald Trump said Thursday that China had agreed to start purchasing American energy, noting the possibility of a large deal involving oil and gas from Alaska.

However, analysts expressed doubts about whether the trade understanding between Washington and Beijing would meaningfully boost Chinese demand for US energy, given the slowdown in China’s economy and persistent weakness in its manufacturing sector.