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FX markets eager for NFP number after 2-week delay

ecPulse
2013-10-21 14:23PM UTC

Traders continued to anticipate the pending release of non-farm payrolls (NFP) with the start of the week, following 16 days of uncertainty that dominated the FX market amid the political wrangle that paralyzed the US government ahead of potential debt default.

Meanwhile, the dollar stands pat around its eight-week low against a six-currency basket since the US Senate overwhelmingly approved a deal last Wednesday to end a political crisis that partially shut down the federal government and brought the world`s largest economy to the edge of a debt default that could have threatened financial calamity.

A looming deadline of debt default was avoided, but the U.S. creditworthiness remains a hostage to the nation`s ballooning debt, yet with a last-minute leeway, policymakers must still find a clear exit before early next year ahead of a new Feb. 7 deadline to approve a debt ceiling.

The main focus now will be on US macroeconomic front with the first-tier non-farm payrolls report due to be released Tuesday, given the impact of the US government shutdown, analysts are betting on a September NFP figure of no more than 180 thousand.

Growing bets the Federal Reserve will step back from tapering its bond-purchase program had is toll on the U.S dollar too, fueling risk appetite for higher-yielding assets after the a last-minute deal pushed the political wrangle over U.S. spending into 2014. 

The USDIX was slightly up about 79.80 from 79.71, almost near the eight-month low of 79.54 hit Friday.

U.S. existing home sales fall for the first time in three months in September

Fx News Today
2013-10-21 14:18PM UTC

U.S. existing home sales plunged for the first time in three months in September, following its climb to four-year high in August, causing a drawback to recovery in the housing market.

The National Association of Realtors said on Monday existing home sales plummeted 1.9 percent to an annual rate of 5.29 million units last month.

Economists had penciled in a drop in home resales by 3.3 percent to 5.30 million units, while August’ reading was revised down from 5.48 million to 5.39 million.

The housing recovery is in jeopardy and thereby may weigh on growth.

Tomorrow, the Labor Department will unlock its September jobs report, which was delayed from Oct. 4 due to the shutdown. American employers probably added 180,000 workers in last month, the highest since April, following a 169,000 gain in August, according to median forecast.

The delay in economic data plus an expected losses from the 16-day shutdown is likely to postpone any intended fiscal tightening by the Fed.

As of 14:15 GMT, the dollar index, which tracks the dollar’s movements versus a basket of major currencies, rose to a high of 79.87 from the session’s bottom of 79.67.

U.S. shares open in green despite downbeat existing home sales report

Fx News Today
2013-10-21 14:12PM UTC

U.S. shares opened in green after despite a report showing that U.S. existing home sales plunged for the first time in three months in September, following its climb to four-year high in August.

Last week, lawmakers had break their political impasse to raise the country’s debt limit and end the first partial shutdown since 17 years.  

Eyes will focus this week on key economic data which will be unlocked at the end of the partial shutdown in addition to earnings by major companies.  

The delay in economic data plus an expected losses from the 16-day shutdown is likely to postpone any intended fiscal tightening by the Fed, giving a relief to equity markets which benefited from the trillions spent by the Fed to bolster the economy.

The Standard and Poor’s had recorded its best weekly gain since July the previous week after a better-than-forecast earnings by Google.

Tomorrow, the Labor Department will unlock its September jobs report, which was delayed from Oct. 4 due to the shutdown. American employers probably added 180,000 workers in last month, the highest since April, following a 169,000 gain in August, according to median forecast.

On the other hand, the release of earnings will continue on Monday as McDonald’s and Halliburton will announce their third-quarter results.

As of 10:03 EST, Dow Jones rose 0.04% to 15405.70 points, and NASDAQ soared 0.41% to 3930.48 points.  

Standard and Poor’s inched up 0.01% to reach 1745.00 points, as of 09:48 EST.

Europe mixed, Stoxx 600 stuck at five-year high

Fx News Today
2013-10-21 12:20PM UTC

European shares fluctuated Monday afternoon as third-quarter earnings season enters its peak week amid an avalanche of US data after delays due to partial government shutdown.

Stocks swung between gains and losses in mid-session, with Stoxx Europe 600 pushing higher by 0.17% to 319 at 11:08 GMT today, but was still stuck at five-year high, as traders anticipate fresh corporate results and clues from the Federal Reserve whether it would relief market amid expectations it will go forward with its easy monetary policy seen supporting equities.

- Stoxx Europe 50 fell 0.30% to 3,024.15

- Britain`s FTSE 100 rose 0.19% to 6,634.90

- France`s CAC 40 fell 0.27% to 4,274.36

- Germany`s DAX fell 0.09% to 8,857.13

In the US, the coming week is considered the peak week of earnings season with about 30% of the S&P 500 reporting and 10 Dow components posting quarterly results.

The main focus, however, will be on US macroeconomic front with the first-tier non-farm payrolls report due to be released Tuesday. given the impact of the US government shutdown, analysts are betting on a September NFP figure of no more than 180 thousand.