The Federal Reserve’s minutes released Wednesday showed that the two policymakers who dissented from last month’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged did not receive support from other members for a rate cut.

The minutes from the July 29–30 meeting stated: “Almost all participants judged that it was appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50% at this meeting.”

Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller both voted against keeping the benchmark rate steady, preferring a quarter-point cut to protect the labor market from further weakness. This marked the first time since 1993 that more than one governor dissented on a rate decision.

Within 48 hours of the meeting, Labor Department data appeared to validate Bowman and Waller’s concerns, showing July job gains well below expectations, alongside higher unemployment and the lowest participation rate since late 2022.

Adding to the unease, historical revisions removed more than a quarter-million jobs previously thought to have been created in May and June, undercutting the narrative of a resilient labor market. The revisions infuriated President Donald Trump, who responded by firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Subsequent inflation data, however, gave ammunition to those worried about Trump’s aggressive tariffs rekindling price pressures. Core consumer inflation accelerated in July beyond forecasts, followed by an unexpected spike in producer prices.

The minutes revealed that officials continued debating the impact of tariffs on inflation and the degree of current monetary restraint. Several policymakers noted that rates may not be far from the “neutral” level that neither stimulates nor restricts growth.

They acknowledged tariffs were already pushing up some goods prices, but judged the overall economic and inflation effects as still uncertain. Looking ahead, participants recognized the potential trade-offs if inflation stays elevated while the labor market weakens further.

Trump’s Pressure Campaign

Before the release, CME’s FedWatch tool priced an 85% chance of a quarter-point cut at the September 16–17 meeting. Rates have been unchanged since last December.

The minutes come just two days ahead of Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium, likely his final address as Fed chief before his term expires next May. The speech will signal whether Powell is shifting toward protecting jobs or remains aligned with inflation hawks as the Fed’s 2% goal drifts further out of reach.

The lack of cuts since Trump’s return to the White House has drawn the president’s ire, with repeated attacks on Powell for holding rates steady. Trump has already begun exploring replacements, aided by a surprise resignation this month that gives him another seat to fill on the Board of Governors.

He nominated Council of Economic Advisers chair Steven Miran to replace former governor Adriana Kugler, whose term was set to expire in January. It remains unclear if the Senate will confirm Miran before the next Fed meeting.

On Wednesday, Trump escalated pressure further by demanding the resignation of Governor Lisa Cook, accusing her of mortgage-related improprieties tied to properties in Georgia and Michigan.

Let’s start with the conclusion: the wave of cancellations hitting large-scale hydrogen projects is not a catastrophe—it’s a sign of progress. The sector is maturing quickly, shedding glossy proposals and players unwilling to adapt, while leaving space for quiet, effective pioneers.

The Hype Bubble Has Burst—And That’s a Good Thing

Between 2021 and 2023, demand for low-carbon hydrogen remained marginal—under one million tonnes compared with total global hydrogen demand of 97 million tonnes, still mostly fossil-based. At the same time, the “Hydrogen Insights 2024” report noted a seven-fold increase in global electrolysis capacity that passed final investment decision (FID) over four years, though still modest at around 20 GW.

In Europe, 3 GW of electrolyser capacity has cleared FID, expected to deliver about 415,000 tonnes of renewable hydrogen annually. By contrast, blue hydrogen projects have seen over 1.4 million tonnes per year cancelled, with only ~400,000 tonnes per year surviving to FID. The lesson is clear: oversized ideas that fail basic economics don’t survive.

This correction is healthy. Projects moving forward are smaller, better designed, and directly tied to decarbonisation needs.

Real Hydrogen: Focused and Practical Projects

Take Engie’s Yuri project in Western Australia: Phase 1 involves a 10 MW electrolyser powered by 18 MW of solar and backed by an 8 MW battery. It will supply ~640 tonnes of renewable hydrogen annually to Yara’s ammonia production. Unflashy, but effective—demand is clear, production is underway.

In Europe, Engie has also greenlit its share of the mosaHYc hydrogen pipeline between France and Germany, while the H2Med/Barmar corridor between Barcelona and Marseille is targeting up to 2 million tonnes a year by 2030. Germany’s Lubmin ammonia-to-hydrogen terminal aims for final approval by end-2025, targeting costs near $3–3.50/kg by 2027—well below current European levels of $8–10/kg.

These are not megaprojects chasing headlines. They are industrially anchored solutions, fitting into hard-to-abate sectors such as ammonia, methanol, refining, and steelmaking.

Why Smaller is Smarter

Failed megaprojects often lacked clear offtake, relied on unproven technologies, or pursued unrealistic scale. By contrast, today’s survivors are embedded in existing industrial demand, with clear economics. Blue hydrogen, for instance, can be produced in Europe at €3.8–4.4/kg—far cheaper than most green hydrogen.

This shift means fewer projects overall, but stronger, more sustainable ones—designed to deliver real industrial decarbonisation rather than speculative hype.

Policy Support Becomes More Targeted

Policy frameworks are also maturing. The EU’s Hydrogen Bank is directing funds to projects with genuine emission-reduction value. Germany’s KfW is financing import terminals rather than forcing uneconomic domestic production. Public money is being channelled where hydrogen is needed most.

A Smaller, Better Hydrogen Economy

The hydrogen economy will likely be smaller than early, exaggerated forecasts suggested. But that is a strength, not a weakness.

A leaner sector that displaces fossil-based hydrogen, cuts emissions in heavy industry, and builds on solid engineering is far preferable to a sprawl of doomed giga-projects. What matters now is not thousands of ideas, but a handful of excellent ones. Let the bad ones die. Let the noise fade. What remains is real.

US stock indexes declined at the start of Wednesday’s session as investors digested retail earnings and awaited the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes.

Target shares dropped 10.7% to $94.13 after the retailer reported weaker quarterly sales and announced the appointment of a new CEO who will assume his role in February.

The Fed’s minutes are due later today, with markets watching for signals on monetary policy amid continued pressure from the Trump administration for rate cuts.

By 15:08 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% (75 points) to 44,847. The broader S&P 500 dropped 0.8% (53 points) to 6,359, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.6% (341 points) to 20,966.

Copper prices fell on Wednesday to their lowest level in nearly two weeks as investment funds moved to sell, while consumers and producers remained cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech later this week, according to metals traders.

Commodity and financial markets are awaiting signals from Powell’s remarks on Friday regarding whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 16–17 meeting, a move that could weigh on the dollar. A weaker US currency typically boosts demand for dollar-denominated metals, a dynamic fund managers are exploiting in daily trading strategies that rely on algorithmic signals.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange slipped 0.1% to $9,676 per metric ton by 10:23 GMT, after earlier touching $9,673.50, its lowest since August 7. Alistair Munro, senior base metals strategist at Marex, noted that “systematic flows are dominating the market in the absence of broader participation,” adding that expectations remain uncertain with the market struggling to gain direction.

Longer-term concerns over demand, particularly from China — the world’s largest copper consumer — have widened the discount between spot copper and the three-month contract to around $100 per ton, the highest since February. Weak appetite is also reflected in the Yangshan copper premium, a key gauge of China’s import demand, which has fallen to $47 per ton compared with levels above $100 in May. Technically, upward resistance is seen around $9,475 per ton, where the 21- and 50-day moving averages converge.

Traders also reported fund selling in aluminum, which briefly broke below its 200-day moving average at $2,565 per ton. Three-month aluminum earlier touched a two-week low at $2,558 before recovering 0.2% to $2,569.

Among other metals, zinc rose 0.2% to $2,773, while lead fell 0.3% to $1,967, tin slipped 0.2% to $33,780, and nickel dropped 0.5% to $14,935 per ton.