The US Federal Reserve on Tuesday released the minutes of its sharply divided meeting earlier this month, which concluded with a vote to cut interest rates again — a decision that appears to have been far closer than the final vote suggested.

The minutes, published a day earlier than usual due to the New Year holiday, showed that officials expressed a wide range of views during the December 9–10 meeting.

Ultimately, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9–3 to cut the policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point, marking the largest number of dissenting votes since 2019, amid intense debate over the need to support the labor market versus concerns about inflation. The decision lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.5%–3.75%.

According to the minutes, “most participants judged that further downward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate if inflation continued to move down over time as expected.”

That view, however, was accompanied by clear reservations about the pace and timing of any additional moves.

The minutes added: “Regarding the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range, some participants noted that, given their economic outlooks, it could be appropriate to maintain the target range at its current level for some time following the reduction at this meeting.”

Officials expressed confidence that the economy would continue to grow at a “moderate” pace, while identifying downside risks to employment and upside risks to inflation. Differing assessments of these risks contributed to the division within the committee, with indications that the outcome could have gone either way despite the majority in favor of the cut.

The minutes revealed that “a few participants who supported the reduction in the target range at this meeting indicated that the decision was very finely balanced, or that they could have supported leaving the target range unchanged.”

The vote coincided with the quarterly update to the Summary of Economic Projections, including the closely watched dot plot showing each official’s expectations for the path of interest rates.

Projections from the 19 officials who attended the December meeting — including 12 voting members — pointed to the likelihood of one additional rate cut in 2026 followed by another in 2027, potentially bringing the policy rate down to around 3%, a level officials view as “neutral,” meaning neither restrictive nor stimulative for economic growth.

Those who favored leaving rates unchanged “expressed concern that progress toward the Committee’s 2% inflation objective may have stalled in 2025, or indicated a need for greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward the target.”

Officials acknowledged that tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump had contributed to higher inflation, but largely agreed that the effect would be temporary and likely fade during 2026.

Since the vote, economic data have shown that the labor market continues to experience slower hiring without a sharp acceleration in layoffs. Inflation has continued to ease gradually but remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

At the same time, the broader economy has continued to perform strongly. Gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, beating expectations and accelerating by about half a percentage point from the already solid pace seen in the second quarter.

However, much of the data come with an important caveat. Some reports remain delayed as government agencies complete data collection following the shutdown period, and even more recent releases are being treated with caution due to these gaps.

As a result, markets largely expect the committee to keep interest rates unchanged over the next few meetings while awaiting additional data. The holiday period has been marked by limited public commentary from Fed officials, and the few available remarks have reflected a high degree of caution heading into the new year.

The composition of the committee is also set to change, with four new regional bank presidents taking on voting roles:

Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Fed, who opposed not only any additional cuts but also a prior reduction;

Anna Paulson, president of the Philadelphia Fed, who has voiced concerns about inflation;

Lorie Logan, president of the Dallas Fed, who has expressed reservations about cutting rates;

Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, who said he would not have voted in favor of the October cut.

At the same meeting, the committee also voted to resume bond purchases. Under the new arrangement, the Fed will purchase short-term Treasury bills in an effort to ease pressures in short-term funding markets.

The central bank began the program with monthly purchases of $40 billion in Treasury bills, planning to maintain that pace for several months before gradually tapering it. A previous effort to shrink the balance sheet had reduced the Fed’s holdings by about $2.3 trillion, bringing them down to the current level of $6.6 trillion.

The minutes noted that failing to resume purchases — referred to in markets as quantitative easing — could result in “significant declines in reserves” to levels below what the Federal Reserve considers “ample” for the banking system.

The amber-colored “cousin of gold” is quietly climbing the ranks of this year’s top-performing commodities. Copper, increasingly viewed as a critical input in the build-out of artificial intelligence data centers, is on track to post its strongest annual performance since the global financial crisis.

The three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange hovered around $12,222 per metric ton on Tuesday, slightly below Monday’s record peak of $12,960 per ton. This puts copper up roughly 42% year-to-date, marking its best annual gain since 2009.

As of Tuesday, the metal had recorded eight consecutive sessions of gains — its longest winning streak in eight years — according to analysis by chief economist David Rosenberg.

For copper — an industrial metal that has taken a back seat to precious metals in recent years — several factors help explain this sharp rally.

First, momentum linked to artificial intelligence. Copper is a key component in data centers and is increasingly viewed as a complementary investment to the broader AI theme.

Second, supply-demand imbalances. The sector is facing supply constraints at a time of accelerating demand driven by electrification and the energy transition. In addition, the United States has been stockpiling copper aggressively in anticipation of potential tariffs, adding further upward pressure on prices.

Third, tariff-related disruption. Copper prices received a strong boost this summer after US President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on certain copper products and copper-intensive goods.

Rosenberg noted in a recent client memo that copper’s exceptional year is being driven largely by “persistent and unresolved concerns over supply shortages.”

Copper has also benefited from a broader rally across metals. Gold has surged about 64% since the start of the year, and it often pulls other metals such as silver and copper higher alongside it, according to Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, speaking to Business Insider.

“When the group starts moving, they all tend to move together,” Hogan said, referring to the broad-based strength across metals markets.

Wall Street does not expect this momentum to fade anytime soon.

Analysts at JPMorgan’s market intelligence team said they expect copper prices to rise toward $12,500 per metric ton in the first half of next year, supported by AI-driven demand and the potential rollback of some tariffs.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs forecasts copper prices reaching $15,000 per metric ton over the coming decade, implying upside of roughly 22% from current levels.

In a note to clients, the bank wrote: “Copper remains our preferred industrial metal over the long term, given its uniquely constrained supply and strong structural growth in demand.”

Bitcoin slid toward the $87,000 level on Tuesday after another failure to sustain a recovery above the $90,000 threshold during the previous session, as weak trading volumes near year-end and fading institutional demand weighed on the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin fell 2.5% to trade at $87,458.6 as of 01:32 a.m. US Eastern Time (06:32 GMT).

Bitcoin had briefly managed to break above the key psychological level of $90,000 on Monday, but quickly gave up those gains, underscoring strong technical resistance around that area.

Bitcoin pressured by ETF outflows as markets await Fed minutes

The cryptocurrency has struggled to build upside momentum in recent sessions, with repeated pullbacks highlighting a lack of conviction among traders as the year draws to a close.

Continued outflows from US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds were among the main factors pressuring prices.

The decline in institutional demand, reflected in ongoing redemptions from these funds, has weighed on sentiment after earlier inflows helped push Bitcoin to record highs. This shift in flows coincided with profit-taking and a broader cooling in appetite for risk assets.

Trading conditions were further affected by thin liquidity during the holiday season, amplifying price swings and limiting the market’s ability to sustain directional moves. Bitcoin remained rangebound below $90,000, despite brief intraday spikes above that level.

Investors also remained cautious ahead of the release of the minutes from the December policy meeting of the Federal Reserve, scheduled for later on Tuesday.

The minutes are expected to reveal divisions among policymakers over the outlook for interest rates, following the central bank’s decision to cut rates earlier this month.

Expectations of further rate cuts in 2026 have provided an important tailwind for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as lower interest rates tend to support speculative investments by reducing the appeal of yield-bearing assets.

However, uncertainty surrounding the timing and scale of future easing has kept investors cautious in the near term.

Cryptocurrency prices today: altcoins retreat alongside Bitcoin losses

Most major altcoins declined on Tuesday, tracking Bitcoin’s losses amid a cautious market tone.

Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 3% to $2,949.92.

XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency, slipped 1.6% to $1.86.

The dollar steadied on Tuesday ahead of the release of the December meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve, while the Chinese yuan extended its gains and broke above a key psychological level against the US currency.

Year-end holidays continued to drain liquidity from markets, as traders increasingly expect the dollar to remain under pressure.

The dollar is on track to post its worst annual performance since 2017, with losses approaching 10%.

Some analysts said the December Fed minutes, when the central bank cut interest rates, could reinforce expectations for further monetary easing, as markets have already priced in two additional rate cuts in 2026.

Euro and sterling on track for annual gains

The euro was trading at $1.1767, heading for annual gains of around 14%, while sterling stood at $1.3508, on course to rise by about 8% in 2025.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of major peers, is set to record an annual decline of 9.6%, its steepest drop in eight years. The weakness has been driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts, narrowing interest-rate differentials with other currencies, as well as concerns over the US budget deficit and political uncertainty.

The index was last at 98.03 points, not far from the three-month low hit last week.

Strategists at MUFG expect the dollar index to fall by a further 5% next year, citing US economic performance and the direction of monetary policy as the key drivers.

Others, however, pointed to the dollar’s relative stability in recent months and the limited scope for the Fed to deliver much deeper rate cuts.

Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Group, said: “We think the dollar will trade in a range around current levels against the major currencies. We’ve largely been moving sideways since the summer, particularly against the Swiss franc and the euro.”

Yuan breaks a key psychological level

China’s onshore yuan broke above the psychologically important 7-per-dollar level for the first time in two and a half years, defying weaker guidance from the central bank as exporters rushed to sell dollars toward year-end.

The yuan strengthened to 6.9951 per dollar, its strongest level since May 2023. It has risen by around 5% against the weakening dollar since early April and is set to end a three-year losing streak.

The People’s Bank of China had sought to curb sharp yuan appreciation by setting weaker daily fixings and issuing verbal warnings through state media, but those efforts failed to reverse the currency’s upward momentum.

Japanese yen and the economy

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen was trading at 155.96 per dollar, slightly away from levels that previously prompted verbal warnings from Tokyo officials and fueled market speculation about possible intervention.

A summary of opinions from Bank of Japan policymakers, released on Monday, showed officials discussing the need to continue raising interest rates even after the hike approved in December, with one member calling for rate increases every few months, highlighting the bank’s focus on inflationary pressures.

Kit Juckes, chief foreign exchange strategist at Société Générale, said movements in dollar/yen are more closely tied to growth expectations than to monetary policy. “What the yen needs, above all else, is stronger GDP growth,” he said.

The Japanese government said last week it expects the economy to grow by 1.1% in the fiscal year ending in March, up from a previous estimate of 0.7% in August, citing a smaller-than-expected impact from US tariffs.

Growth is also forecast to accelerate to 1.3% in the following fiscal year, supported by solid consumption and capital spending, offsetting weaker external demand, according to official projections.