The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday its decision to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, from 4.25% to 4.00%, in a move that was largely in line with analysts’ expectations.

Nickel prices edged lower on Wednesday as the US dollar strengthened against most major currencies, weighed down by a bearish outlook from a major American bank regarding metal prices for the coming year.

In a research note released this month, Goldman Sachs projected that copper prices would remain range-bound between $10,000 and $11,000 per metric ton through 2026–2027, citing a market surplus despite a still-positive long-term outlook for industrial metals.

The bank highlighted three key factors likely to limit copper’s upside momentum:

1. Chinese buyers are expected to reduce purchases if prices exceed $11,000 per ton, as seen in Q2 2024.

2. A buildup in US inventories could swiftly rebalance the market should the London Metal Exchange (LME) price spreads narrow.

3. Overestimation of data center–related demand, which may prove weaker than initially projected.

Goldman: Indonesian producer margins to steer nickel’s direction

Regarding the nickel market, Goldman Sachs said Indonesian producer profit margins must compress further to slow supply growth and counter the ongoing surplus.

The bank forecast nickel prices to decline by around 6%, reaching $14,500 per metric ton by December 2026.

Aluminum market set for surplus, with prices returning to current levels only by 2030

Goldman Sachs also expects a surplus in the aluminum market as Indonesian supply begins ramping up by mid-2026.

The bank projects aluminum prices to hover around $2,350 per ton in Q4 2026, with no return to current price levels expected before 2030.

China to become a net zinc exporter by 2026

Goldman Sachs said China is likely to shift from being a net importer to a net exporter of zinc by 2026, driven by increased domestic production.

“We see higher Chinese output turning the country’s zinc balance from deficit to surplus, while ex-China markets move into deficit. To balance the global market, Chinese producers must be incentivized to export,” the bank wrote.

Cobalt supported by tighter supply and new Congo export quotas

In the cobalt market, Goldman Sachs noted that new export quotas imposed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo — which accounts for about 70% of global supply — are expected to create a market deficit in 2026, supporting prices amid tighter supply conditions.

Lithium prices to remain subdued through 2026 amid persistent surplus

The bank also predicted that lithium prices will remain depressed for longer, averaging $8,900 per ton in 2026, as the ongoing supply glut keeps the market oversupplied.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index rose 0.2% to 98.8 by 15:35 GMT, hitting a session high of 99.01 and a low of 98.6.

As for spot trading, nickel prices fell 0.7% to $15,130 per ton by 15:46 GMT.

Bitcoin prices fell on Wednesday, extending recent losses as caution dominated markets ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision and high-level trade talks between the United States and China — prompting traders to shy away from digital assets.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped 1% to $112,819 by 1:00 a.m. Eastern Time (05:00 GMT), marking its second consecutive daily decline, after briefly touching around $116,000 earlier in the week.

Despite the rally in US tech stocks overnight — driven by renewed optimism surrounding artificial intelligence — that momentum failed to carry over to the crypto market, which continues to trade with notable restraint.

Fed meeting and Trump–Xi summit weigh on crypto sentiment

Traders stayed cautious ahead of the conclusion of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting later on Wednesday, with the central bank widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%).

However, this move has already been priced in over recent weeks amid mounting signs of easing inflation and slowing labor market growth. The focus now turns to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s tone in the press conference, with analysts divided over whether the central bank will signal further cuts ahead.

Market participants are also closely watching Thursday’s scheduled meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, where the two leaders are expected to discuss additional steps toward de-escalating their prolonged trade dispute.

Cryptocurrencies came under heavy pressure earlier in October as tensions between Washington and Beijing intensified, triggering a sharp Bitcoin sell-off that the market is still struggling to recover from.

Gradual Bitcoin demand recovery — but at a muted pace

Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode said Wednesday that the modest weekend rebound in Bitcoin coincided with a return to positive net inflows into US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Still, the firm noted that inflows remain far below the levels seen during previous bull cycles, suggesting that Bitcoin could continue to move within a narrow range in the near term.

“The demand for Bitcoin is recovering, but not with the same intensity that characterized earlier rallies,” Glassnode said in its report.

Separately, data from SoSoValue showed that US crypto ETFs have posted four straight days of positive inflows, though volumes remain subdued compared with the strong surges recorded earlier this year.

Oil prices held steady on Wednesday as investors weighed optimism surrounding the upcoming meeting between the leaders of the world’s two largest energy consumers — the United States and China — against expectations of a potential increase in production quotas at the next OPEC+ gathering.

Brent crude futures rose by 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $64.51 a barrel by 10:20 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $60.21 a barrel.

China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Donald Trump on Thursday in Busan, South Korea, noting that the meeting “will inject new momentum into the development of US–China relations.” The ministry added that Beijing “is ready to work jointly to achieve positive results.”

China also reiterated its readiness to continue cooperation with Washington on combating fentanyl, following Trump’s remarks that he expects to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for Beijing’s commitment to curb exports of precursor chemicals used in producing the deadly drug.

Prices were also supported by expectations of a decline in US crude and fuel inventories last week.

According to market sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday, US crude stockpiles fell by 4.02 million barrels during the week ended October 24, while gasoline inventories dropped by 6.35 million barrels and distillate stocks declined by 4.36 million barrels compared with the previous week.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, “The API report showing a significant drop in US crude and refined product inventories last week provides mild support for prices.”

Both Brent and WTI recorded their biggest weekly gains since June last week after President Donald Trump imposed Russia-related sanctions for the first time in his second term, targeting oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft.

However, lingering doubts over the effectiveness of these sanctions in offsetting oversupply — along with speculation of a possible OPEC+ output increase — pressured prices, with both benchmarks falling by about 1.9%, or more than $1 a barrel, in the previous session.

According to four sources familiar with discussions, OPEC+ — the world’s largest alliance of oil-producing nations — is leaning toward a modest production hike in December, with two sources suggesting the increase could reach around 137,000 barrels per day.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on Tuesday that crude demand had been strong even before the sanctions on major Russian firms, adding that Chinese demand remains notably resilient.