European nations, in cooperation with Ukraine, are working on a 12-point proposal to end the war with Russia along the current front lines, countering renewed demands from Russian President Vladimir Putin that Kyiv surrender part of its territory in exchange for a peace deal.

The proposed plan calls for the return of all deported Ukrainian children and the implementation of a prisoner exchange, while Kyiv would, in return, receive security guarantees, funding to repair war damage, and a fast-track path to European Union membership.

The plan also includes a gradual lifting of sanctions on Russia, though roughly $300 billion in frozen Russian central bank reserves would not be returned to Moscow until it agrees to contribute to Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction.

Copper prices fell on Tuesday as the US dollar strengthened against most major currencies, reversing the previous day’s gains that were supported by expectations of stronger demand growth.

Consumption in the United States and India is expected to emerge as the main drivers of global copper demand over the next decade, after decades of Chinese dominance in the market — a dominance that is now slowing as China’s growth in copper demand loses momentum.

China’s industrial boom and large-scale infrastructure expansion fueled a historic rally that pushed copper prices above $10,000 per metric ton, compared to around $1,500 twenty-five years ago.

While China will remain the world’s largest copper market through the next decade and beyond, analysts expect new regional and geopolitical dynamics to play a greater role in shaping demand and prices worldwide.

Analysts note that shifts in regional policies, infrastructure investment cycles, and global political realignments will force producers, consumers, traders, and investors to adapt to a market now driven by multiple forces rather than a single dominant player.

Tom Price, an analyst at Panmure Liberum, said, “China’s pace of copper consumption and stockpiling will slow, and we’ll return to traditional demand drivers, primarily replacement and renewal cycles outside of China.”

He added that the full impact of these shifts has yet to materialize, but efforts by the United States and other nations to encourage domestic manufacturing will likely slow China’s export-oriented industrial activity, thereby reducing its refined copper demand — estimated at around 15 million tons this year.

In contrast, the expansion of data centers to support artificial intelligence technologies and the modernization of power grids are expected to drive copper demand growth outside of China, becoming the main catalysts for price increases.

Price explained that “China has already built out most of its infrastructure, including its power grid, so its activity will gradually decline in line with its needs,” predicting that Chinese copper demand in 2031 will be about 6% lower than in 2026.

He also projected that China’s share of global primary copper consumption will drop to 52%, or roughly 27 million tons in 2031, compared with 57% in 2026.

Meanwhile, US demand is expected to reach 2.2 million tons in 2031, up nearly 50% from 2026, while India’s consumption is expected to exceed 1 million tons, a rise of more than 30%.

Growing Western Resistance

Analysts also expect the new 50% US tariff on copper tubes and wires — imposed by President Donald Trump — to stimulate domestic production.

For China, however, these measures could mean losing one of its key export markets for copper products. According to Trade Data Monitor, the United States is China’s fourth-largest market for copper tube exports.

Washington imported 14.4 million tons of copper tubes from China last year, and shipments reached 8 million tons in the first seven months of this year — highlighting the potential market loss for Beijing.

Duncan Hobbs, Research Director at Concord Resources, said, “China’s output of manufactured goods, particularly those destined for export, is likely to slow due to increasing resistance from Western economies.”

These exports include copper wires used in power grids. A decade ago, the US Department of Energy found that 70% of the country’s transmission lines were over 25 years old.

Meanwhile, India is expanding its electricity network to support its goal of achieving 500 gigawatts of non-fossil-fuel-based energy by 2030.

Across Asia (excluding China), consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) expects copper demand to rise by 25% to more than 9.2 million tons between 2025 and 2030.

For the power infrastructure segment — including electrical grids, data centers, and telecommunications — BMI forecasts a 35% increase in demand to 2.2 million tons, while Chinese companies are projected to see more modest growth of 4% and 11%, respectively.

Infrastructure Renewal in the West

Efforts to modernize electricity grids in Western nations are focused mainly on upgrading existing systems — a gradual and less copper-intensive process compared to building new networks from scratch, as China did.

Robert Edwards, Principal Analyst at metals consultancy CRU, said he had long expected China’s dominance in the copper market to fade, but massive Chinese investments in electric vehicles, renewable energy, and power networks have delayed that shift.

CRU now forecasts that China’s share of total global consumption of mined and recycled copper will decline to 57% of 31.36 million tons in 2030, down from 59% of 27.62 million tons this year.

“China’s demand growth potential is now limited,” Edwards concluded, “and we should expect more of the expansion to come from the rest of the world.”

As of 16:57 GMT, the US Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 98.8, hitting a high of 98.9 and a low of 98.5.

In US trading, December copper futures fell 1.4% to $4.96 per pound at 16:39 GMT.

Bitcoin prices fell on Tuesday, sharply reversing their limited weekend gains, as cryptocurrencies underperformed compared to other high-risk assets that benefited from easing trade tensions between the United States and China.

Bitcoin, the world’s largest digital currency, led the losses across the crypto market even as global risk appetite improved, supported by political developments in Japan and expectations of renewed US–China trade talks.

Bitcoin dropped about 3% to $107,712.3 by 01:43 a.m. Eastern Time (05:43 GMT).

Recovery Momentum Fades as “Uptober” Rally Dissolves

Bitcoin struggled to stay above the $110,000 level this week after suffering a flash crash earlier in October that dragged it down from record highs and wiped out roughly $500 billion in total crypto market capitalization.

Analysts noted that the October crash reinforced a sense of caution and risk aversion in the digital asset space, as traders have become reluctant to place large bets amid heightened volatility.

The optimism surrounding the so-called “Uptober” — a seasonal trend in which cryptocurrencies typically outperform in October — has also faded quickly, with Bitcoin now down more than 2% since the start of the month.

In a research note, Forex.com analysts wrote: “So far, October has not unfolded the way bullish Bitcoin traders expected. Instead of the usual seasonal strength, performance has been muted, and the early rally reversed sharply mid-month — a move that may not be over yet.”

They also pointed out that Bitcoin has increasingly decoupled from traditional financial markets, particularly equities, as cryptocurrencies have retreated even while Wall Street indices hit a series of record highs in recent weeks.

“Bitcoin is clearly lagging in an environment where most risk assets are posting strong gains,” the analysts said.

Altcoins Slide as Ripple Fails to Benefit from Corporate News

The broader crypto market also came under renewed pressure on Tuesday, with most altcoins following Bitcoin lower after a brief recovery.

Ether (ETH), the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 5.3% to $3,859.65 after failing to hold the key psychological level of $4,000.

Ripple (XRP) also declined 2.2% to $2.4145, showing little reaction to reports that Ripple Labs plans to establish a new corporate treasury backed by the issuer itself.

During the Asian session, cryptocurrencies extended their declines even as Asian stock markets surged to record highs — led by Japan’s Nikkei following conservative candidate Sanae Takaichi’s advance toward becoming prime minister, and by Chinese markets rallying after conciliatory remarks from Washington over ongoing trade tensions.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday after falling in the previous session, as traders tried to balance concerns about oversupply in global markets with escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, the world’s two largest oil consumers.

Brent crude futures climbed by 52 cents, or 0.84%, to $61.52 per barrel by 10:19 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for November delivery — due to expire on Tuesday — rose by 53 cents, or 0.9%, to $58.05, while the more active December contract gained 52 cents, or 0.9%, to $57.54 per barrel.

Prices had fallen on Monday to their lowest levels since early May amid worries about oversupply and slowing economic growth due to the latest escalation in the US–China trade conflict.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said: “Speculative bets on lower prices are likely to persist as long as Brent remains below the $65-per-barrel level.”

Structural Market Shift Reflects Supply Abundance

Both Brent and WTI have shifted into a market structure known as “contango,” where spot prices are lower than forward prices — typically a signal of plentiful supply and weak near-term demand.

In the physical market, sales of crude cargoes have declined, and discounts have widened across West African crude grades amid expectations of a significant surplus, said Yaniv Shah, Vice President of Oil Markets at Rystad Energy.

He added that oil prices have been under pressure since late last month as OPEC and its allies, including Russia (OPEC+), continued with plans to add more supply to the market. Analysts now expect a surplus this year and next, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting a global oversupply of nearly 4 million barrels per day by 2026.

Caution Over Oversupply Fears

Some analysts, however, believe concerns about a glut may be exaggerated for now.

Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, said in a research note that if the IEA’s forecast of a massive surplus were accurate, the oil futures curve would show a much steeper “super-contango” pattern — something not yet reflected in the market.

Meanwhile, a preliminary Reuters survey on Monday indicated that US crude inventories likely rose last week ahead of reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

During the week ending October 10, crude stockpiles rose more than expected, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell by a greater margin.

Olle Svalby, analyst at SEB Bank, said: “We’re not in an actual glut crisis. Distillate inventories have recently declined, and while geopolitical developments could spark short-term volatility, the overall trend remains bearish unless OPEC+ slows its output growth or macroeconomic conditions improve unexpectedly.”

Hopes Pinned on US–China Talks

Analysts noted that a broader trade agreement between the United States and China could provide support or at least a floor for prices.

Investors are now looking ahead to next week’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, though disputes over tariffs, technology, and market access remain unresolved.