Dollar reverses higher after surprise decision by Swiss National Bank

The dollar turned to gains in European trade on Thursday against a basket of major rivals after an earlier slip under pressure from the recent Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

The sudden about-face came after the Swiss National Bank surprised the markets with a 0.25% interest rate cut in the first step towards easing monetary policies as inflation fell below targets. 

Now investors await a batch of important US data later today to help gauge the likely path ahead for US interest rates this year.

 The Index 

The dollar index rose 0.3% to 103.66, with a session-low at 103.17, after closing down 0.4% yesterday, the first loss in five days, away from three-week highs at 104.15. 

The dollar lost ground yesterday after the Federal Reserve sounded more bearish than expected in its policy statement this week. 

The SNB 

The Swiss National Bank surprised the markets today with a 0.25% interest rate cut to 1.5%, while most analysts expected no change in policies. 

The decision comes as Swiss inflation hit 1.2% in February, the ninth month in a row of sub 2% inflation rates. 

The Fed 

As expected, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged at 5.5%, a 2002 high, for the fifth meeting in a row. 

The Fed said that recent indices showed that US economic performance is still strong, with high employment gains and weakening inflation, although it remains high. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the FOMC members are committed to bringing inflation to the 2% target, noting that inflation while slowing is still above the target. 

He added that US inflation remains high and the Fed is paying attention to it, and that higher inflation than expected in February didn’t change the Fed’s outlook. 

He added that if the US economy performed as expected, it could be appropriate to start cutting rates this year. 

US Rates

Following the Fed’s meeting, the odds of a 0.25% interest rate cut in June surged to 75%. 

Important Data

Now investors await a batch of important US data later today, including unemployment claims and manufacturing and services PMI data.