The US dollar declined on Monday after the US Supreme Court issued a ruling canceling the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, triggering a new wave of policy uncertainty that was further amplified by concerns over a potential conflict with Iran.

The euro rose 0.2% against the dollar to $1.1808, while the British pound gained 0.3% to $1.3519. The dollar also fell 0.2% against the Japanese yen to 154.745 yen.

Brian Levitt, Global Market Strategist at Invesco, said that these initial moves appear to be rapid reactions to headlines rather than genuine signals of fundamental changes in the global economic landscape.

He added that the market’s initial reaction to the ruling could ultimately prove short-lived, given that several pathways remain available to keep tariffs in place.

The Supreme Court ruled on Friday that Trump had exceeded his authority in imposing broad tariffs, prompting him to criticize the court and announce a uniform 15% tariff on imports.

He also insisted that trade agreements involving higher tariffs with trading partners should remain in effect.

This uncertainty is expected to further complicate an already volatile foreign exchange environment, as traders navigate shifting interest rate expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions.

The alternative tariffs announced by Trump are set to remain in place for 150 days, and it remains unclear whether the United States must refund tariffs already paid by importers. The Supreme Court did not address this issue in its ruling.

Analysts expect years of litigation and a fresh round of uncertainty that could limit economic activity, as Trump seeks other methods to reimpose global tariffs more permanently.

On Sunday, the European Commission called on the United States to honor an agreement reached last year with the European Union that included zero tariffs on certain products such as aircraft and spare parts.

US trading partners in Asia were also studying the new uncertainty, similar to investors who had previously been surprised by market reactions to Trump’s trade tariffs — which, coincidentally, failed to reduce the US trade deficit.

Investors monitor Middle East tensions

The risk of a military conflict between the United States and Iran has added another layer of uncertainty to financial markets.

Although the two long-time rivals are scheduled to hold a third round of talks on Thursday regarding their nuclear dispute, Trump has ordered a major military buildup in the Middle East.

Goldman Sachs analysts wrote that rising tensions in the Middle East have revived questions about geopolitical hedging tools and the impact of commodity price shocks on currency markets.

Iran is among the world’s largest oil producers, and any military strikes against it would likely have repercussions across crude markets. A potential conflict could also disrupt shipping routes, as Tehran has previously threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil flows pass.

Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the Swiss franc remains their preferred hedge against inflation. The franc rose 0.3% to 0.7736 against the dollar.

Silver prices rose in European trading on Monday at the start of the week, extending gains for a fourth consecutive day and reaching their highest level in three weeks, supported by strong safe-haven demand amid concerns linked to the turbulence surrounding Trump’s tariff policy, particularly after the historic ruling by the US Supreme Court.

The rise was also supported by a weaker US dollar in foreign exchange markets after Trump decided to raise tariffs from 10% to 15%, a move that could signal renewed escalation in global trade tensions.

Price Overview

Silver prices today: silver rose by 3.8% to $87.84, the highest level since February 5, up from the opening level of $84.61, while recording a session low of $84.61.

At Friday’s settlement, silver prices gained 7.7%, marking a third consecutive daily gain following the historic US Supreme Court ruling.

The white metal rose 9.3% last week, marking its first weekly gain in a month, amid improved investment demand for precious metals.

US dollar

The dollar index fell by 0.45% on Monday, extending losses for a second consecutive session and moving away from a one-month high, reflecting continued weakness in the US currency against a basket of major and secondary currencies.

Beyond profit-taking activity, the US dollar declined following the historic decision to cancel the broad tariffs previously imposed by Donald Trump.

Sim Moh Siong, currency strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore, said the ruling weakens the dollar, as it could benefit economic growth outside the United States.

Siong added that the long-term foreign exchange implications are less clear, as lower US revenues may weigh on the fiscal position and the dollar, while limiting Trump’s authority could be viewed positively by reducing one source of trade policy volatility.

Historic ruling

The US Supreme Court issued a historic ruling on Friday, February 20, 2026, invalidating the broad tariffs previously imposed by the Trump administration, arguing that the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose those tariffs exceeded the legal authority granted to the president.

In a swift response, Trump announced on Saturday, February 21, 2026, an increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, with implementation set to begin tomorrow, Tuesday, February 24, 2026.

This time, Trump relied on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to impose temporary tariffs for up to 150 days to address balance-of-payments deficits without immediate congressional approval.

The Supreme Court ruling has raised major legal questions over whether companies that paid billions of dollars under the previous system, now deemed illegal, will receive compensation, a process that could take years in court.

US interest rates

According to the CME Group FedWatch tool, pricing for keeping US interest rates unchanged at the March meeting remains stable at 96%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut stands at 4%.

To reprice these expectations, investors are closely monitoring the release of additional US economic data, as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Reports indicate that the Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs is casting uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path following a year of market turbulence.

Gold prices rose in European trading on Monday, extending gains for a fourth consecutive day and recording the highest level in four weeks, supported by strong safe-haven demand amid concerns linked to Trump’s tariff actions, which followed a historic ruling by the US Supreme Court.

The rise was also supported by a weaker US dollar in foreign exchange markets after Trump decided to raise tariffs from 10% to 15%, a move that may signal renewed escalation in global trade tensions.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: gold rose by 1.35% to $5,176.69, the highest level since January 30, up from an opening level of $5,107.46, while recording a session low of $5,107.46.

At Friday’s settlement, gold prices gained 2.2%, marking a third consecutive daily gain following a historic ruling by the US Supreme Court.

The precious metal rose by 1.3% over the past week, marking a third consecutive weekly gain amid active safe-haven demand.

US dollar

The dollar index fell by 0.45% on Monday, extending losses for a second consecutive session and moving further away from a one-month high, reflecting continued weakness in the US currency against a basket of major and secondary currencies.

As is well known, a stronger US dollar makes gold bullion priced in dollars less attractive for holders of other currencies.

Beyond profit-taking activity, the US dollar weakened following a historic decision canceling the broad tariffs previously imposed by Donald Trump.

Sim Moh Siong, currency strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore, said the decision weakens the dollar, as it could benefit economic growth outside the United States.

Siong added that longer-term foreign exchange implications are less clear, as reduced US revenues could weigh on the fiscal outlook and the dollar, while limiting Trump’s authority could be seen as positive by reducing one source of trade policy volatility.

Historic ruling

The US Supreme Court issued a historic ruling on Friday, February 20, 2026, invalidating the broad tariffs previously imposed by the Trump administration, arguing that the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose those tariffs exceeded the legal authority granted to the president.

In a rapid response, Trump announced on Saturday, February 21, 2026, a rise in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, with implementation scheduled to begin tomorrow, Tuesday, February 24, 2026.

This time, Trump relied on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to impose temporary tariffs for up to 150 days to address balance-of-payments deficits without immediate congressional approval.

The Supreme Court ruling has raised major legal questions over whether companies that paid billions of dollars under the previous system, now deemed illegal, will receive compensation, a process that could take years in court.

US interest rates

According to the CME Group FedWatch tool, pricing for keeping US interest rates unchanged at the March meeting is stable at 96%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut stands at 4%.

To reprice these expectations, investors are closely monitoring additional US economic data releases, as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Reports indicate that the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling is casting uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path after a year of market turbulence.

Gold outlook

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said the court’s ruling on tariffs, along with the reaction it triggered from the US president, has added further uncertainty to global markets, prompting traders to return to gold as a safe haven.

Waterer added that gold’s ability to rise again above the $5,400 level in the near term may depend on how long tariff-related uncertainty persists and whether the United States takes military action against Iran.

SPDR Gold Trust

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, remained broadly unchanged on Friday, leaving total holdings steady at 1,078.75 metric tons.

The euro rose in European trading on Monday against a basket of global currencies, extending its recovery for a second consecutive day from a four-week low against the US dollar. The move was supported by continued buying from lower levels, in addition to weakness in the US currency following Trump’s tariff actions.

As inflationary pressures ease on policymakers at the European Central Bank, expectations for at least one European interest rate cut this year have strengthened. To reassess those expectations, traders are awaiting an important speech later today by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.

Price Overview

The euro exchange rate today: the euro rose against the dollar by around 0.5% to $1.1835, up from Friday’s closing level of $1.1778, while recording an intraday low of $1.1788.

The euro ended Friday’s session up by less than 0.1% against the dollar, marking its first gain in three days, after recording a four-week low of $1.1742 in the previous session.

Beyond buying from lower levels, the euro also rebounded following better-than-expected data on the performance of Europe’s key sectors in February.

The euro lost 0.75% against the dollar last week, marking its second weekly decline within the past three weeks, due to rising expectations for at least one European interest rate cut this year.

US dollar

The dollar index fell by 0.45% on Monday, extending losses for a second consecutive session and moving away from a one-month high, reflecting continued weakness in the US currency against a basket of major and secondary currencies.

In addition to profit-taking, the dollar declined following a historic US Supreme Court ruling on Friday that found Trump’s sweeping tariffs exceeded his authority.

Trump responded by strongly criticizing the court and raising tariffs from 10% to 15% on imports starting Tuesday, while insisting on maintaining high-tariff agreements with trading partners.

Sim Moh Siong, currency strategist at OCBC in Singapore, said the decision weakens the dollar as it could benefit economic growth outside the United States.

Siong added that the long-term foreign exchange implications are less clear, as lower US revenues could weigh on fiscal conditions and the dollar, while limiting Trump’s authority may be viewed positively by reducing one source of trade policy volatility.

European interest rates

Data released recently in Europe showed a slowdown in headline inflation levels in December, indicating easing inflationary pressures on the European Central Bank.

Following those figures, money markets increased pricing for a 25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank at its March meeting from 10% to 25%.

Traders also adjusted expectations from keeping rates unchanged throughout the year to anticipating at least one 25 basis point cut.

To reassess these expectations, traders are awaiting a speech later today by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at the National Association for Business Economics annual policy conference in Washington.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Christine Lagarde intends to complete her term at the European Central Bank.