The US dollar edged lower on Tuesday as investors shifted their focus to central bank meetings amid uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East and oil price expectations.

Crude oil futures remained above the $100 per barrel level, supported by supply concerns as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, despite a pullback in the previous session after some vessels passed through the vital waterway.

Mohit Kumar, economist at Jefferies, said that if Iran allows ships bound for India, China, and South Asia to pass, this could significantly ease supply pressures.

The US dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.10% to 99.75 points, after reaching 100.54 on Friday, its highest level since May 2025, as investors turned to safe-haven assets while currencies such as the euro and yen were more exposed to the impact of rising oil prices.

Bhanu Baweja, strategist at UBS, estimated that oil prices could reach $120 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until the end of March, and $150 if the closure continues until the end of April.

In an escalation of tensions, a senior Iranian official said the new Supreme Leader rejected de-escalation proposals conveyed by mediators, demanding that the United States and Israel be “subdued” first.

Market focus on central bank response

Investors are now questioning whether global economies are returning to conditions similar to 2022, when central banks launched an aggressive tightening cycle.

The US Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan the next day.

These banks are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but investors will focus on any signals regarding how policymakers plan to deal with the impact of the war in the Middle East.

Antje Praefcke, currency analyst at Commerzbank, said she believes central banks will closely monitor inflation expectations as a lesson from the previous price shock, adding that they may move more quickly compared to the period following the coronavirus pandemic.

Market pricing currently suggests expectations of about two interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank in 2026, a major shift from earlier expectations that pointed to potential rate cuts. Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have also been reduced, with markets now pricing only about a 25-basis-point cut this year.

Paul Mackel, head of global FX research at HSBC, said the situation is different from 2022 at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, noting that the dollar was then supported by additional factors such as US monetary tightening and weak global growth, which are currently absent.

Major currency moves

The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1515 after falling to $1.1409 on Monday, its lowest level since August 2025. Mackel expects the euro/dollar pair to trade in a range between 1.10 and 1.12 if energy supply constraints in the Gulf persist.

In Germany, investor sentiment declined more than expected in March, recording its largest drop since February 2022.

The Japanese yen rose to 159.03 against the dollar, approaching the key 160 level despite verbal warnings from Japanese authorities, after falling more than 2% since the outbreak of the war at the end of February.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said core inflation is accelerating toward the bank’s 2% target, stressing that price increases must be accompanied by strong wage growth.

Barclays analysts believe that continued high oil prices, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and an accommodative monetary stance by the Bank of Japan could push the dollar/yen pair to test the 160 level and then the intervention zone seen in 2024 around 161.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed that the government is ready to take decisive action to address volatility in foreign exchange and financial markets.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar rose 0.2% to $0.7086 after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates in a closely split vote.

Gold prices rose in European trading on Tuesday for the first time in the past five days, attempting to recover from a four-week low, supported by buying activity around the $5,000 per ounce level and by a decline in the US dollar in the foreign exchange market.

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting begins later today, with decisions scheduled to be announced on Wednesday. Expectations remain stable for interest rates to remain largely unchanged for the second consecutive meeting.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: gold rose 0.75% to $5,044.53, up from the session opening level of $5,006.27, after hitting a low of $4,994.77.

At Monday’s settlement, gold lost 0.3%, marking its fourth consecutive daily loss and recording a four-week low of $4,967.61 per ounce.

US dollar

The dollar index fell about 0.2% on Tuesday, extending losses for the second consecutive session and moving away from a ten-month high of 100.54 points, reflecting a decline in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

Beyond profit-taking sales, the US dollar is weakening as investors refrain from building new long positions ahead of the anticipated Federal Reserve meeting.

US interest rates

Amid rising oil prices, US President Donald Trump again called on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.

According to the CME FedWatch tool from CME Group, markets price a 99% probability that US interest rates will remain unchanged this week, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut stands at 1%.

Markets also price a 97% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at the April meeting, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut stands at 3%.

Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting begins later today, with decisions to be announced on Wednesday. Expectations remain stable for interest rates to remain largely unchanged at the 3.75% range, which is the lowest level in three years, for the second consecutive meeting.

Monetary policy data, quarterly economic projections, and comments from Jerome Powell will undoubtedly provide stronger clues about the path of US interest rates over the course of this year.

Gold outlook

Bob Haberkorn, chief market strategist at RJO Futures, said that as oil prices rise, inflation increases, and if inflation rises, central banks will not be as willing as they were six months ago to cut interest rates, which is a negative factor for gold prices.

Haberkorn added that he remains very optimistic about gold given current global developments, noting that there is still significant capital waiting for the right opportunity to enter the market, and he continues to expect gold to reach $6,000 per ounce.

SPDR fund

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined on Monday by about 0.85 metric tons, marking the third consecutive daily decline and bringing the total to 1,070.71 metric tons, the lowest level in a week.

The Australian dollar rose in Asian trading on Monday against a basket of global currencies, extending its gains for the second consecutive day against its US counterpart, after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rate for the second consecutive month, citing the need to increase borrowing costs to curb inflation.

The decision to raise Australian interest rates came after a very close vote within the Reserve Bank of Australia, indicating that any further tightening may be difficult.

Markets had been pricing in a rate hike after senior officials at the Reserve Bank of Australia warned that the meeting would be “open to all possibilities,” with core inflation remaining at 3.4%, still significantly above the central bank’s target range of 2% to 3%.

Price Overview

Australian dollar exchange rate today: the Australian dollar rose 0.35% against its US counterpart to 0.7095, from the session opening level of 0.7071, after recording a low of 0.7064.

The Australian dollar ended Monday’s trading up 1.3% against the US dollar, marking its third consecutive daily gain.

Reserve Bank of Australia

In line with expectations, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy committee decided on Tuesday to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, the highest level since April 2025, marking the second consecutive rate hike.

Five board members voted in favor of the increase, while four voted against it, making it the closest decision since voting outcomes began to be disclosed.

The Reserve Bank of Australia said that higher borrowing costs are needed to curb inflation, although the very close vote indicates that further monetary tightening is not guaranteed.

The Reserve Bank of Australia added that developments in the Middle East remain highly uncertain; however, across a wide range of possible scenarios, they could contribute to both global and domestic inflation.

The Reserve Bank of Australia confirmed that a wide range of data in recent months shows that inflationary pressures have increased significantly in the second half of 2025. The board noted that there is a significant risk that inflation could remain above target for longer than expected.

Australian interest rates

Markets price the probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May at around 60%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in June stands at 85%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further data on inflation, unemployment, and wage levels in Australia.

Ethereum jumped above the $2,200 level, reaching its highest level since February 4 as the broader cryptocurrency market continued to rise. This development marks a significant milestone for the world’s second-largest digital asset by market value and reflects renewed momentum across the cryptocurrency sector.

Ethereum’s rally has attracted wide attention among investors and analysts, as the recovery in its price reflects growing confidence in the digital asset market. The development was widely discussed after being posted by the Coin Bureau account on the X platform and was later confirmed by the Hokanews editorial team as part of its ongoing coverage of cryptocurrency market movements.

Ethereum’s rise above $2,200 comes at a time when the market is experiencing a broader upswing that has lifted several major cryptocurrencies, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment toward a more optimistic outlook for the sector.

Ethereum and the key price level

Breaking above the $2,200 level represents an important psychological and technical milestone for Ethereum traders. Markets often react strongly when assets approach price levels that were previously associated with major turning points. In this case, Ethereum’s return to its February levels has renewed interest among both retail and institutional investors.

Technical analysts closely monitor such levels because they can act as support or resistance zones. When prices break through these levels, it may signal strengthening buying momentum and is sometimes interpreted as a sign that market sentiment is turning positive after a period of consolidation. Ethereum’s recent performance reflects increased demand for the asset amid signs of renewed activity in the broader cryptocurrency market.

Ethereum’s role in the digital ecosystem

Ethereum is considered a central platform within the digital asset ecosystem. Unlike Bitcoin, which mainly functions as a store of value and digital currency, Ethereum provides a programmable blockchain network that supports decentralized applications.

Developers use the Ethereum network to build smart contracts, decentralized finance platforms, and blockchain-based applications. The network has become the foundation for a large portion of the decentralized finance sector, including lending platforms, decentralized exchanges, and digital asset trading protocols. Ethereum is also widely used to create and trade non-fungible tokens representing ownership of digital art, collectibles, and other assets. Because of these widespread applications, Ethereum’s price movements often reflect broader trends within the cryptocurrency industry.

Renewed market momentum

The broader cryptocurrency market has seen renewed upward momentum in recent weeks, with several major digital assets recording price increases as investors return after periods of volatility. Analysts point to several factors that may be contributing to the renewed activity, including growing interest from financial institutions in digital assets and improving regulatory clarity in several regions, which reduces uncertainty and encourages greater exposure to cryptocurrencies. Ethereum’s move above $2,200 reflects this broader improvement in market sentiment.

Institutional participation in Ethereum markets

Institutional investors have recently begun exploring opportunities within the Ethereum ecosystem more actively. Although Bitcoin has historically dominated institutional portfolios, Ethereum has gained increasing recognition for its role in powering decentralized applications and financial infrastructure. Several investment firms have introduced financial products that provide exposure to Ethereum, allowing institutional investors to participate in price movements without directly managing digital wallets. Institutional demand can significantly influence market dynamics, as large investment flows increase liquidity and help support price stability over time.

Technological development of Ethereum

The Ethereum network has undergone significant technological developments since its launch, most notably the transition from the proof-of-work mechanism to the proof-of-stake system. This shift significantly reduced energy consumption and introduced new mechanisms for securing the blockchain. Under proof-of-stake, participants can stake their Ethereum holdings to help validate transactions and maintain network security in exchange for rewards. This transition has been widely viewed as a major step toward improving Ethereum’s scalability and long-term sustainability, while ongoing upgrades focus on enhancing transaction efficiency and reducing costs for users.

Importance of decentralized finance

Ethereum remains the dominant platform for decentralized finance applications, which include blockchain-based financial services operating without traditional intermediaries such as banks. These systems allow users to borrow, lend, trade, and earn interest on digital assets through smart contracts. The growth of decentralized finance has significantly strengthened Ethereum’s importance within the cryptocurrency ecosystem, as many of the most widely used protocols operate on the Ethereum blockchain. As activity in these applications increases, demand for Ethereum tends to rise as well.

Global adoption of Ethereum technology

Ethereum’s applications extend beyond finance, as its technology is being explored in various sectors including digital identity, supply chain management, and asset tokenization. Some governments and central banks are also studying blockchain technologies inspired by Ethereum’s architecture, highlighting Ethereum’s evolution from a digital currency into a broader technological platform. As adoption continues, the long-term growth of the network remains a key focus for industry observers.

Market volatility

Despite the recent rise, analysts warn that cryptocurrency markets remain highly volatile, with prices capable of reacting sharply to regulatory announcements, technological developments, and shifts in global economic conditions. Experienced investors emphasize the importance of focusing on long-term fundamentals rather than reacting to short-term price movements. Nevertheless, Ethereum’s move above the $2,200 level represents an important moment for traders monitoring the market.

Upcoming outlook and expectations

Analysts are closely watching whether Ethereum can maintain its upward momentum after breaking this price threshold. Key indicators include trading volume, institutional flows, activity on decentralized finance platforms, and the performance of the broader market and major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which often influence overall market sentiment.

The future of Ethereum

Ethereum’s long-term future depends on several factors, including technological upgrades, ecosystem growth, and broader adoption of cryptocurrencies. Developers continue working on improvements aimed at enhancing the network’s ability to support large-scale applications and higher transaction volumes, alongside the expansion of Web 3.0 technologies that could increase demand for decentralized infrastructure. Ethereum remains one of the leading platforms supporting this emerging digital ecosystem, and as adoption expands, the network could play an increasingly important role in shaping the future of digital finance and decentralized technology.