The British pound fell in the European market on Thursday against a basket of major currencies, extending its losses for the third consecutive session against the US dollar, as the American currency strengthened following President Trump’s signing of a bill to end the longest government shutdown in US history.

After the release of downbeat labor-market data in the United Kingdom, the probability of a Bank of England rate cut in December increased. To reassess those expectations, investors are now awaiting key figures on UK economic growth due later today.

Price Overview

• GBP/USD exchange rate: The pound fell by about 0.2 percent to 1.3111 dollars, down from an opening price of 1.3133 dollars, after recording an intraday high at 1.3134 dollars.

• On Wednesday, the pound lost roughly 0.15 percent against the dollar, marking a second straight day of declines amid ongoing correction and profit-taking from the two-week high of 1.3191 dollars.

US Dollar

The US dollar index rose by 0.1 percent on Thursday, maintaining gains for a second session and reflecting continued strength in the American currency against major and minor peers.

The rise came after President Donald Trump signed legislation ending the longest government shutdown in US history, effectively breaking the political deadlock in Washington.

This development eases concerns about a potential economic slowdown in the United States and paves the way for the resumption of regular government data releases, restoring confidence to financial markets.

UK Interest Rates

• Data released this week in the United Kingdom showed a rise in monthly jobless claims, while the unemployment rate hit its worst level since April 2021, developments that ease inflationary pressure on Bank of England policymakers.

• Following these figures, market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December increased from 60 percent to 80 percent.

UK Economic Growth

To reassess those expectations, investors are awaiting important data from London later today, including the quarterly GDP reading for the third quarter, the monthly GDP reading for September, and additional figures on UK manufacturing output.

Outlook for the British Pound

At Economies.com, we expect that if the upcoming data proves less hawkish than markets anticipate, the probability of a December rate cut will rise further, a development that would place additional downward pressure on the pound.

The Australian dollar strengthened in the European market on Thursday against a basket of major currencies, extending gains for the second consecutive session against the US dollar and hitting a two-week high after the release of strong Australian labor market data.

The figures showed persistently tight labor conditions, adding pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and reducing expectations for a rate cut in December.

Price Overview

• **AUD/USD exchange rate:** The Australian dollar rose about 0.4% to **0.6565**, its highest level since October 24, from an opening price of **0.6541**, after touching an intraday low of **0.6533**.

• On Wednesday, the Australian dollar gained more than 0.2% against its US counterpart, marking its third daily rise in the past four sessions amid improved risk appetite in global markets.

Australian Labor Market

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that **net employment jumped by 42.2 thousand in October**, the fastest pace since April, easily beating market expectations for a gain of 20 thousand. September’s employment figure was revised down from 14.9 thousand to 12.8 thousand.

The report also showed that the **unemployment rate fell to 4.3%**, below market expectations of 4.4%, after recording 4.5% in September.

These results confirm that Australia’s labor market remains tight, reinforcing the case for the RBA to maintain its restrictive monetary policy stance well into 2026.

Australian Interest Rates

• Following the data release, market pricing for a **25-basis-point rate cut in December** fell from **35% to 15%**.

• Investors now await further data on inflation, employment, and wage growth to reassess the outlook for monetary policy in Australia.

The US dollar rose against most major currencies during Wednesday’s trading but trimmed some of its gains as markets awaited the outcome of a key vote in the House of Representatives to restore government operations.

Investors are watching closely as the House prepares to vote on legislation to end the federal shutdown that has been in place since early October, after the Senate approved the measure earlier this week.

Data from ADP released on Tuesday showed that the US private sector lost an average of 11,250 jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 25.

Separately, Federal Reserve member Steven Miran reiterated on Monday his support for additional interest rate cuts to prevent a potential economic slowdown.

In an interview with CNBC, Miran emphasized that the Fed should move faster than the usual pace of 25-basis-point adjustments. He once again called for a 50-basis-point cut—half a percentage point—while noting that at minimum, a quarter-point reduction should be implemented.

As of 19:54 GMT, the US dollar index was up less than 0.1% at 99.4 points, after reaching a high of 99.7 and a low of 99.4.

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar rose 0.3% against its US counterpart to 0.6544 as of 20:05 GMT.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian dollar also strengthened, rising 0.2% against the US dollar to 0.7143 at the same time.

Since the early 2010s, the intensive and systematic development of the U.S. shale oil and gas sector has transformed the country from one of the world’s largest energy importers into one of its biggest exporters. Yet this transformation has not only redrawn the global energy trade map—it has also upended the balance of power established after the 1973 oil crisis.

Today, as global demand for natural gas surges amid fears of new conflicts and the explosive growth of artificial intelligence–linked data centers, Middle Eastern nations are seeking to expand gas production—particularly by developing their own shale resources. Both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates now view the U.S. not as a rival but as a vital source of technological expertise—an alignment Washington is eager to encourage. From a strategic perspective, participating in the energy infrastructure of other nations remains one of the most effective ways to sustain American influence and long-term interests.

Lessons from History: From the “Seven Sisters” to a New Energy Order

Before 1973, the global oil industry was dominated by a handful of Western companies known as the “Seven Sisters”:

* The Anglo-Persian Oil Company (later BP)

* Royal Dutch Shell

* Three descendants of Standard Oil (California, New Jersey, and New York)

* Gulf Oil

* Texaco

These firms controlled exploration, production, transport, and pricing until October 1973, when OPEC—led by Saudi Arabia, alongside Egypt, Syria, and Tunisia—imposed an oil embargo on the U.S., the U.K., Japan, Canada, and the Netherlands in response to their support for Israel during the Yom Kippur War.

By March 1974, when the crisis ended, oil prices had jumped from roughly $3 to about $11 a barrel, triggering a global recession that hit the West hard. Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani later remarked that the embargo had fundamentally shifted the balance of power from industrialized consumers to resource-rich developing nations.

Washington’s Response: Divide and Rule Until the Shale Revolution

In the years that followed, Washington sought to keep Middle Eastern influence in check. It adopted a version of Henry Kissinger’s triangular diplomacy—used to manage U.S. relations with Moscow and Beijing—tailored to the Middle East. This strategy often resembled a “divide and rule” policy, exploiting economic, political, and sectarian divisions to prevent a unified front against American interests.

This approach persisted until the rise of the U.S. shale revolution, which once again reshaped the global balance of energy power. The shift became clear during the 2014–2016 oil price war, when OPEC—led by Saudi Arabia—attempted to undercut U.S. shale producers but ultimately failed. American drillers emerged stronger, having slashed production costs to historic lows.

From Competition to Cooperation: Riyadh and Abu Dhabi Turn to Washington

OPEC’s largest producers realized that the U.S. had transformed its nascent shale sector into a lean, highly efficient, and flexible production ecosystem. This prompted both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to seek American expertise to develop their own unconventional gas resources.

In Saudi Arabia, cooperation began in 2019 with the massive Jafurah shale gas project, involving several U.S. companies, including National Energy Services Reunited Corp., which carried out large-scale hydraulic fracturing operations. U.S. asset manager BlackRock led a consortium that invested around $11 billion in midstream infrastructure.

According to Saudi Aramco’s Q3 2025 report, the first phase of Jafurah remains on schedule for completion this year, targeting production of 2 billion standard cubic feet per day of marketable gas by 2030—a key part of Aramco’s plan to boost total gas output by 80% this decade.

In the UAE, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is driving shale gas development to meet rising domestic demand and expand export capacity. Musabbeh Al Kaabi, ADNOC’s executive director of upstream operations, confirmed that the company is working with U.S.-based EOG Resources to apply advanced hydraulic fracturing technologies.

The Ruwais region serves as a focal point of these efforts. ADNOC now operates the Diyab Unconventional Gas concession after TotalEnergies reduced its stake, and the project has entered full development. The UAE aims to produce 1 billion cubic feet of shale gas per day before 2030, while simultaneously expanding its LNG export capacity with a new terminal that will add 9.6 million tons per year—more than doubling current output.

LNG and Artificial Intelligence: The New Drivers of Demand

Both nations are betting on the growing importance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) amid forecasts for surging global demand driven by data center expansion and AI adoption.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, LNG has become the world’s go-to energy fallback, thanks to its portability and flexibility compared to pipeline gas. Before the war, China had already secured long-term LNG contracts at favorable prices, insulating itself from later price spikes. Since then, the U.S. has helped Europe sign new long-term LNG supply deals to replace Russian flows.

Looking ahead, AI-driven computing, cloud infrastructure, and heat waves are expected to account for **40–50% of incremental global gas demand through at least 2040**. Data centers alone could add **150–200 billion cubic meters** of annual demand—an increase of roughly **3.6% to 4.9%** over current forecasts.

In essence, America’s shale revolution—once a domestic story—has evolved into a global force reshaping the Middle East’s energy ambitions, with Washington now exporting not only hydrocarbons, but the technology and strategy that underpin a new geopolitical energy order.