The Bank of England on Thursday announced its interest rate decision following the August 7 meeting, cutting rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% — the lowest level since February 2023. The move was in line with market expectations and marks the third rate cut by the Bank of England this year.

Oil prices held steady on Thursday after paring early gains, following a Kremlin announcement that Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with US President Donald Trump in the coming days, boosting hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the war in Ukraine.

Brent crude futures rose by 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $67.10 per barrel by 09:02 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 20 cents, or 0.3%, to $64.55.

Both benchmarks had fallen nearly 1% on Wednesday, hitting eight-week lows after Trump stated that progress had been made in talks with Moscow. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov confirmed Thursday that Trump and Putin will meet in the coming days — their first summit since 2021.

A White House official had previously said that Trump could meet Putin as early as next week, as the US continues preparing secondary sanctions — potentially including measures against China — to increase pressure on Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.

Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, noted: “Oil prices saw a modest rise, supported by falling US inventories, stronger Saudi pricing to Asia, and robust Chinese crude imports in July.” However, he added that “gains were capped by news of a potential Trump-Putin summit next week.”

Russia remains the world’s second-largest oil producer, after the United States.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday that US crude inventories fell by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels in the week ending August 1 — a drop that exceeded analysts’ expectations of a 591,000-barrel decline, according to a Reuters poll.

In China, crude oil imports dropped by 5.4% in July compared to June but were up 11.5% year-over-year. Analysts expect refinery activity to remain strong in the near term.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, raised its official selling prices for crude to Asian buyers for September delivery — the second consecutive monthly increase — citing tight supply and strong demand.

However, broader macroeconomic uncertainty limited price gains after the US imposed a new round of tariffs on Indian goods. On Wednesday, Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, citing continued purchases of Russian oil. These new tariffs are set to take effect on August 28.

Trump also signaled that additional tariffs on China could follow.

The US dollar continued its decline against major currencies on Thursday, as growing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve combined with rising concerns over partisan divisions creeping into key American institutions.

Initial jobless claims in the US are under scrutiny after last week’s disappointing employment data, which contributed to the dollar’s weakness. In contrast, the euro found support ahead of expected peace talks next week to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Last week, President Donald Trump dismissed the official responsible for labor market data he found unsatisfactory. Market attention is now focused on his nominee to fill an upcoming vacancy on the Fed’s Board of Governors, as well as the list of potential candidates to succeed the current Fed chair.

Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, commented: “All of this points to mounting political risk surrounding the US dollar, in addition to the recent string of weak economic indicators.”

He added: “Any breakthrough in ending the war in Ukraine would be a positive catalyst for the euro.”

The dollar index — which measures the greenback’s performance against a basket of major currencies — rose 0.1% to 98.259 in early Asian trading, after falling 0.6% in the previous session.

The dollar held steady at 147.36 yen, while the euro traded at $1.1654, down about 0.1% after gaining 0.7% in the prior session.

US Labor Department data is expected to show initial jobless claims rising by 3,000 to reach 221,000 for the week ending August 2. Continuing claims for the week ending July 26 are also projected to see a slight increase.

Last Friday’s report revealed weaker-than-expected US job growth in July, alongside significant downward revisions to May and June figures, indicating a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions.

Traders in interest rate futures are now pricing in a 94% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s September meeting, up from 48% a week ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Overall, markets are expecting around 60.5 basis points in rate cuts for the year.

A White House official said Wednesday that Trump could meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin as early as next week, as Washington continues to pressure Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.

Trump also stated Tuesday that he would announce his pick to replace outgoing Fed board member Adriana Kugler by the end of the week. He has also narrowed the list of candidates to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair to four names.

The British pound held steady at $1.33505, while the Australian dollar was little changed at $0.65.

Gold prices jumped in European trading on Thursday, hitting a two-week high and resuming gains that had temporarily paused yesterday. The metal is now approaching the critical $3,400 per ounce mark, supported by a weakening US dollar in the foreign exchange market.

Less aggressive remarks from some Federal Reserve officials have bolstered expectations of a US interest rate cut in September, with markets awaiting further signals about the Fed’s policy trajectory for the remainder of the year.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold rose by 0.85% to $3,397.57 per ounce — the highest level since July 23 — from an opening of $3,369.26. The session low was recorded at $3,365.44.

• On Wednesday, gold settled down 0.35%, marking its first loss in five sessions due to profit-taking and corrective moves.

US Dollar

The dollar index fell 0.25% on Thursday, deepening its losses for a second consecutive session and recording a two-week low at 97.95 points, reflecting continued weakness in the US currency against a basket of major peers.

This decline comes amid growing concerns over leadership stability at the Federal Reserve, as preparations are underway to fill a vacant seat on the Board of Governors and announce candidates for the Fed chairmanship.

On Wednesday, President Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, citing New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil. The move escalated the trade rift between the two countries, with negotiations now at a standstill.

US Interest Rates

• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Wednesday that the Fed may need to cut interest rates soon in response to slowing US economic growth.

• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated Monday that, with mounting evidence of labor market weakness and no signs of persistent inflation from tariffs, "the time has come" to cut interest rates.

• Following these remarks, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in the September meeting rising from 88% to 94%, while expectations for no change fell from 12% to 6%.

• For the October meeting, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut rose from 95% to 98%, and the odds of maintaining rates dropped from 5% to 2%.

• Investors are watching closely for additional Fed commentary today, as well as weekly US jobless claims data, to reassess rate expectations.

Gold Outlook

• Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said: “Trump is issuing fresh tariff threats, keeping gold in the spotlight as a safe haven for investors.”

• He added: “Gold is approaching the psychological $3,400 mark, with risk assets remaining somewhat unsteady due to President Trump’s ongoing tariff rhetoric.”

SPDR Fund

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell by approximately 3.15 metric tons on Wednesday to 952.79 metric tons — the lowest level since July 21.