The Bank of England announced its interest rate decision on Thursday at the conclusion of its November 6 meeting, keeping rates unchanged at 4.00% — the lowest level since February 2023 — in line with market expectations, marking the second consecutive meeting without a change.

•This statement is considered “positive” for the British pound.

Gold prices rose in European trading on Thursday, extending gains for a second consecutive session and moving back above the $4,000 per ounce mark, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar in foreign exchange markets.

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has deepened uncertainty surrounding the country’s economic outlook, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions.

Price Overview

• Gold Prices Today: Spot gold rose 0.95% to $4,016.87 per ounce, up from an opening level of $3,980.11, after touching an intraday low of $3,964.63.

• On Wednesday, gold gained 1.2%, marking its first increase in four sessions, as the U.S. dollar halted its recent rally.

U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.3% on Thursday, extending losses for a second straight session and retreating from a six-month high, reflecting continued weakness against major and minor currencies.

Beyond profit-taking, the greenback’s decline was driven by concerns over the record-long U.S. government shutdown, which has heightened market uncertainty regarding the nation’s economic trajectory.

With the political impasse in Congress keeping the government closed, both investors and the Federal Reserve have been forced to rely on private-sector indicators for guidance.

U.S. Interest Rates

• According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets currently price a 67% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, while odds of holding rates steady remain at 33%.

• To reassess those expectations, investors are closely monitoring comments from Federal Reserve officials, given the suspension of official U.S. economic data releases.

Gold Outlook

• Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said: “The dollar eased slightly, making it easier for gold to build upward momentum.”

• He added: “Gold managed to rise yesterday despite strong U.S. macro data, as traders remained focused on the fact that the current government shutdown is the longest on record.”

SPDR Fund

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, were unchanged on Wednesday, remaining at 1,038.63 metric tons — the lowest level since October 29.

The British pound rose in European trading on Thursday against a basket of global currencies, extending its recovery for a second consecutive session from a seven-month low versus the U.S. dollar, ahead of the Bank of England’s policy decision at the conclusion of its seventh regular meeting of 2025.

Markets widely expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, while investors look for further clues about the pace and timing of future monetary easing in the United Kingdom.

Price Overview

• GBP/USD: The pound rose 0.15% to 1.3066, up from an opening level of 1.3049, after touching an intraday low of 1.3046.

• On Wednesday, the pound gained 0.25% against the dollar, rebounding from a seven-month low of 1.3010.

• Earlier this week, the currency came under broad pressure after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves outlined the challenging economic conditions facing Britain, citing rising debt levels, weak productivity, and persistently high inflation.

Bank of England

The Bank of England is widely expected to announce on Thursday that it will leave interest rates unchanged at 4.00% — their lowest level since February 2023 — marking a second straight meeting without a change.

The rate decision, policy statement, and voting breakdown will be released at 12:00 GMT, followed by a press conference from Governor Andrew Bailey at 12:30 GMT to discuss the outcome, the state of the inflation battle, and the outlook for interest rates.

Pound Outlook

According to expectations here at Economies.com, if the Bank of England’s statement and Andrew Bailey’s remarks strike a more hawkish tone than markets currently anticipate, the odds of a rate cut in December would likely diminish, paving the way for further recovery in the pound’s value.

The Japanese yen rose in Asian trading on Thursday against a basket of major and minor currencies, resuming its gains after pausing on Wednesday against the U.S. dollar, following data showing a rise in wages in the world’s fourth-largest economy.

The figures pointed to mounting inflationary pressures on policymakers at the Bank of Japan, increasing the likelihood that the central bank will raise interest rates at its final meeting of the year in December.

Price Overview

• USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar fell 0.2% to 153.79 yen, down from an opening level of 154.11, after touching an intraday high of 154.14.

• On Wednesday, the yen closed 0.3% lower versus the dollar, after rising 0.35% the previous day as part of a recovery from an eight-month low of 154.48.

Japanese Wages

Japan’s Ministry of Labor reported Thursday that total monthly cash earnings and a separate measure of full-time wages rose 1.9% year-on-year in September, in line with market expectations, after a 1.3% increase in August.

The recovery in wages could pave the way for further price gains and faster inflation in the months ahead. Undoubtedly, growing inflationary pressure on the Bank of Japan is strengthening the case for an upcoming rate hike.

Japanese Interest Rates

• Following the data, market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate increase at the Bank of Japan’s December meeting rose from 58% to 65%.

• To reassess those expectations, investors are awaiting further data on inflation, unemployment, and wage trends in Japan, as well as comments from Bank of Japan officials.