Euro under pressure amid mounting global trade tensions
The euro fell in European trade on Tuesday against a basket of major rivals, following a surge against the dollar yesterday. The current decline comes amid mounting global trade tensions as Trump imposes tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
Trump’s tariff threats turned into reality, with now the EU being set as the next target, with likely new tariffs announced in April.
The Price
The EUR/USD pair fell 0.15% today to $1.0471, with a session-high at $1.0496.
The pair closed up 1.1% on Monday, the best profit since January 20, as EU leaders agreed to present an emergency plan to the US to achieve peace in Ukraine.
The gains were also boosted by higher-than-expected eurozone inflation data for February, renewing inflationary pressures on ECB policymakers.
Trump’s Tariffs
Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and a 10% additional tariff on Chinese products, damaging global sentiment.
China quickly responded by imposing 15% tariffs on some US imports, and will limit exports to 15 US companies.
Trump recently asserted that tariffs on the US will be implemented soon, accusing the EU of taking advantage of the US, with a trade deficit amounting to $300 billion.
Trump said the EU doesn’t take American cars or agricultural products, but conversely, the US takes millions of European cars and massive amounts of their food products.
The ECB
The European Central Bank will convene this week to discuss monetary policies and latest economic developments in the eurozone.
The ECB is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.65%, the lowest since December 2022.
Interest Rate Gap
The current eurozone-US interest rate gap stands at 160 basis points in favor of the US, and will likely expand to 185 basis points later this week, undermining the euro.
Yen trades near four-month high on US treasury yields
The Japanese yen rose in Asian trade on Tuesday on track for the second straight daily profit against the dollar, about to hit four-month highs on mounting odds for a Japanese rate hike in March.
The yen is also boosted by a drop in US 10-year treasury yields to five-month lows as President Donald Trump implemented 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
The Price
The USD/JPY pair fell 0.6% today to 148.52 yen per dollar, with a session-high at 149.62.
The yen rose 0.75% on Monday, resuming gains after three days of losses, and approaching a four-month high at 148.56.
Japanese Rates
BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Friday the bank will continue to reduce its purchases of government bonds despite the recent rise in yields, asserting its massive holdings of bonds still act as a massive stimulus to the economy.
Uchida reiterated the BOJ’s readiness to hike interest rates if economic developments and prices went as expected
The odds of a BOJ interest rate hike in March now stand at 85%.
US Yields
US 10-year treasury yields fell 1.1% today on track for the third loss in a row, plumbing a five-month trough at 4.115% and hurting the dollar’s standing.
The decline comess asd investors prepared for Trump’s 25% tariffs, which officially went into action today against Canada and Mexico.
Otherwise, according to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a 0.25% Fed interest rate cut in March stood at 9%.
A smaller gap between US and Japanese long-term treasury yields would boost the standing of Japanese bonds and underpin the yen.
Wall Street edges down before tariffs take hold
US stock indices declined on Monday as markets await the implementation of US tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
US President Donald Trump announced on the Truth Social platform that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will officially be enforced starting tomorrow, Tuesday.
On trading, Dow Jones fell 0.1% as of 16:11 GMT, or 32 points to 43,809 points, while S&P 500 shed 0.1%, or 10 points to 5944 points, as NASDAQ gave up 0.5%, or 97 points to 18,750 points.
Brent gains ground on Chinese demand hopes
International benchmark Brent rose in European trade on Monday away from recent 11-week lows on short-covering, and after strong Chinese industrial data.
Prices are also boosted by an improving risk appetite following calmer remarks from Trump officials on upcoming tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
The Price
Brent rose 0.75% today to $73.63 a barrel, with a session-low at $72.38.
Brent closed down 0.4% on Friday, resuming losses and rebounding from 11-week lows at $71.96.
Oil prices lost on average 1% last week, the sixth weekly loss in a row on concerns about a global supply glut.
Chinese Demand
Earlier Beijing data showed China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in February from 50.1 in January, beating estimates of 50.4, and boosting hopes for higher demand on metals.
Now investors await the Chinese parliament’s annual convention in a few days, which would delineate various fiscal measures to support the economy.
Trump’s Tariffs
The US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnik said on Sunday that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be implemented on Tuesday but President Trump will decide whether he’ll commit to the 25% rate.