The euro rose in European trading on Tuesday against a basket of global currencies, as part of a recovery attempt from a two-week low against the US dollar, benefiting from a slowdown in the US currency following a report that Trump is seeking to exit the war with Iran.

Following more hawkish comments from the President of the European Central Bank last week, expectations for at least one interest rate hike this year have increased. To reassess those expectations, markets are awaiting the release of key inflation data in Europe later today for March.

Price Overview

Euro exchange rate today: the euro rose about 0.25% against the dollar to $1.1490, up from the session opening level of $1.1464, after hitting a low of $1.1447.

The euro ended Monday’s session down about 0.4% against the dollar, marking its fifth consecutive daily loss, and recording a two-week low of $1.1443, amid continued escalation of military confrontations in the Middle East.

US dollar

The dollar index fell 0.3% on Tuesday, retreating from a ten-month high of 100.64 points, reflecting a slowdown in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

Aside from profit-taking, the US dollar declined following a Wall Street Journal report stating that Trump told his aides he is ready to end the war against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

European interest rates

ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that the bank is ready to raise interest rates even if the expected rise in inflation is temporary.

Following those comments, money markets increased pricing for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the European Central Bank at the April meeting from 25% to 35%.

Sources told Reuters that the European Central Bank is likely to begin discussing interest rate hikes next month.

European inflation

To reassess expectations for interest rate changes this year, investors are awaiting the release of key inflation data in Europe later today for March, which will provide insight into the extent of inflationary pressures on policymakers at the European Central Bank.

The annual consumer price index in Europe is due at 09:00 GMT, with market expectations pointing to a 2.6% increase in March, up from 1.9% in February, while core inflation is expected to rise 2.4%, according to the previous reading.

Euro outlook

We expect that if inflation data comes in hotter than currently expected by markets, expectations for European interest rate hikes this year will increase, which would support further recovery in the euro against a basket of global currencies.

Monthly performance

Over the course of March trading, which officially ends with today’s settlement, the euro has declined about 2.75% against the US dollar so far, heading for a second consecutive monthly loss and its largest monthly decline since July 2025.

This monthly loss is attributed to investors focusing on buying the US dollar as a preferred safe-haven asset due to concerns related to the impact of the Iran war.

Rising oil and gas prices to multi-year highs are negatively affecting the European economy.

The Japanese yen fell in Asian trading on Tuesday against a basket of major and minor currencies, resuming losses that had briefly paused yesterday against the US dollar, and moving back toward its lowest levels in 20 months, under the watch of Japanese authorities who have issued strong warnings against excessive movements in the domestic currency in the foreign exchange market.

Data showed an unexpected slowdown in core inflation in Tokyo during March, in the latest sign of easing inflationary pressures on policymakers at the Bank of Japan, which has led to a decline in expectations for a Japanese interest rate hike in April.

Price Overview

Japanese yen exchange rate today: the US dollar rose 0.2% against the yen to ¥159.97, up from the session opening level of ¥159.67, after hitting a low of ¥159.59.

The yen ended Monday’s session up 0.35% against the dollar, marking its first gain in the past five days, after earlier hitting a 20-month low of ¥160.46.

Monthly performance

Over the course of March trading, which officially ends with today’s settlement, the Japanese yen has declined about 2.5% against the US dollar so far, heading for a second consecutive monthly loss and its largest monthly decline since last October.

This monthly loss is attributed to investors focusing on buying the US dollar as a preferred safe-haven asset amid concerns related to the impact of the Iran war.

Japanese authorities

In the strongest warning yet of potential intervention to support the yen, Japan’s top currency official Atsuki Mimura said on Monday that authorities may need to take decisive action if speculation in currency markets continues.

Mimura told reporters: we are hearing that speculation is increasing in currency markets, in addition to crude oil futures markets. If this situation continues, it may be time to take decisive action.

The 160 yen threshold

The US dollar rose against the yen on Friday, reaching ¥160 for the first time since July 2024, when Japanese authorities last intervened to support the currency.

Authorities in Tokyo have repeatedly warned of possible intervention to support the yen if its value declines excessively. The most recent intervention took place in July 2024, when the exchange rate reached around ¥161 per dollar, its lowest level since the 1980s.

Tokyo core inflation

Data released today in Japan showed that Tokyo core consumer prices rose 1.7% in March, below market expectations of a 1.8% increase, after rising 1.8% in February.

Lower-than-expected price readings in Japan signal easing inflationary pressures on policymakers at the central bank, reducing the likelihood of interest rate increases this year.

Japanese interest rates

Following the data, markets reduced pricing for the probability of a quarter-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the April meeting from 25% to 15%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.

Oil prices rose during Monday’s trading amid uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran to reach a ceasefire.

G7 countries announced today their commitment to take necessary measures to ensure stability in energy markets.

US President Donald Trump said that Iran’s new leaders are highly rational and that he believes Washington will reach an agreement with them.

Trump also expressed his desire to take control of Iranian oil, threatening to destroy power plants, oil fields, and Iran’s Kharg Island if Tehran does not immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz and if a peace agreement is not reached before the deadline he set for April 6.

In trading, Brent crude futures for May delivery rose 0.19%, or 21 cents, to settle at $112.78 per barrel.

US Nymex crude futures for May delivery climbed 3.25%, or $3.24, to $102.88, closing above the $100 level for the first time since 2022.

Ethereum is trading near $2,100 at the end of the first quarter of 2026, with the broader outlook largely unchanged compared to recent weeks. The market has lost more than half its value from its late-2025 highs and is struggling to build conviction around a recovery. With ongoing macroeconomic headwinds and continued weakness across altcoins, Ethereum faces a significant challenge heading into the new quarter.

Ethereum price analysis: daily chart

The downward channel that has defined ETH price action since late 2025 remains intact on the daily chart. Both the 100-day moving average (around $2,400) and the 200-day moving average (around $3,000) continue to trend lower and remain well above the current price. Together, they form a strong resistance barrier that has rejected all major recovery attempts since last December.

The supply zone between $2,300 and $2,400 has proven to be a strong resistance area, as the price attempted to enter it in mid-March but was sharply rejected. Meanwhile, the $1,800 support level held firm during the February sell-off and remains the key downside support. A break below this level would expose the next important levels at $1,600 and $1,400.

In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from its February lows near 20 and is now hovering around the mid-40s, indicating some stabilization but no clear directional momentum yet.

ETH/USDT four-hour chart

Following the failed breakout attempt above the $2,300–$2,400 resistance zone about two weeks ago, ETH has been trading within a short-term descending channel on the four-hour chart. The price is currently near $2,100, close to the upper boundary of this channel. However, each recovery attempt continues to face renewed selling pressure.

The RSI on this timeframe has also rebounded from the low 30s to the mid-50s, suggesting that immediate selling pressure may ease temporarily. However, buyers need to break above the channel resistance and sustainably reclaim the recent high near $2,200 to shift the short-term structure. Failure to do so keeps a retest of the key $1,800 support level as a realistic near-term scenario.

Sentiment analysis

The number of active Ethereum addresses rose significantly during the February sell-off and around subsequent lows, far exceeding activity levels seen over the past two years. While this increase may initially appear positive, the context suggests it was more likely a capitulation event — driven by panic selling and rapid liquidations — rather than a wave of new demand.

For ETH to establish a credible bullish case, on-chain activity needs to recover in a sustained manner rather than through temporary spikes during periods of market stress. Until daily active addresses rise consistently alongside price, network data supports a cautious outlook rather than a recovery scenario.