The euro rose in the European market on Tuesday against a basket of global currencies, beginning to recover from a two-week low against the U.S. dollar, as renewed recession fears in the United States emerged after Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on goods imported from Japan and South Korea, in the latest development of his chaotic trade war.

Recent key inflation data from Europe has increased uncertainty around the likelihood of a European rate cut in July, as investors await more important economic releases from the eurozone.

The Price

EUR/USD exchange rate today: The euro rose against the dollar by 0.5% to ($1.1765), from the opening price of ($1.1708), with a session low at ($1.1706).

The euro ended Monday’s session down by 0.55% against the dollar, marking the third loss in the past four days, and hitting a two-week low at $1.1686.

U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar index fell on Tuesday by 0.35%, retreating from a two-week high at 97.67 points, reflecting a renewed decline in the U.S. currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

Aside from profit-taking, the U.S. dollar is also weakening due to renewed concerns about a potential recession in the U.S. economy, after President Donald Trump revealed 25% tariffs on goods imported from Japan and South Korea, in the latest twist in his chaotic trade war.

Trump has begun informing his trade partners — from major suppliers like Japan and South Korea to smaller nations — that sharply higher U.S. tariffs will begin on August 1, later stating that he is open to an extension if countries present proposals.

Opinions and Analysis

Carol Kong, currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said: "There’s still a lot of uncertainty around where tariff rates will ultimately land, and which countries will get which rates, so global economic uncertainty remains elevated, and that will keep investors in a wait-and-see mode for now."

Kong added: "This is just the beginning, and we’ll definitely see more major trade headlines over the coming days."

European Interest Rates

Headline CPI in Europe rose by 2.0% year-on-year in June, matching market expectations, after a 1.9% increase in May.

According to Reuters sources, a clear majority at the latest European Central Bank meeting expressed a preference to keep interest rates unchanged in July, with some members calling for a longer pause.

Money market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the European Central Bank in July remains steady at around 30%.

To reassess these expectations, investors will be closely monitoring a range of upcoming economic data releases in Europe, along with commentary from ECB officials.

The Australian dollar rose broadly on Tuesday against a basket of global currencies, rebounding sharply from a two-week low against its U.S. counterpart, following an unexpected decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.85%.

The decision came as a surprise to the markets, which had confidently priced in at least a 25-basis-point rate cut. A majority of the RBA board members indicated the need for more data to confirm that inflation is trending toward the medium-term target range.

The Price 

AUD/USD exchange rate today: The Australian dollar rose against its U.S. counterpart by 0.95% to (0.6559), from today’s opening level at (0.6497), with a session low at (0.6491).

On Monday, the Australian dollar fell by 1.0% against the U.S. dollar, marking a third consecutive daily loss and hitting a two-week low at 64.85 cents, as investors increasingly favored the U.S. dollar as one of the most attractive investment opportunities.

Reserve Bank of Australia

In an unexpected move, the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday kept interest rates unchanged at 3.85%, the lowest level since May 2023, defying market expectations for a 25-basis-point cut to 3.60%.

RBA Holds Rates Steady Against Market Expectations

The Reserve Bank of Australia stated it remains cautious about the inflation outlook, adding that six members voted in favor of holding rates steady while three voted against — a rare outcome that reflects division within the board.

The board said in a statement: "The Board judged that it could wait for further information to confirm the ongoing path of inflation toward 2.5% on a sustained basis." It added: "Monetary policy is well-positioned to respond decisively should international developments have material effects on activity and inflation in Australia."

The central bank explained that while recent monthly CPI data suggests inflation in the June quarter is likely to be broadly in line with expectations, it was, on the margin, slightly stronger than forecast.

Australian Interest Rates

Following the RBA meeting, interest rate swaps now imply a total easing of 50 basis points by year-end.

Pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the RBA in August has declined from 65% to 50%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut interest rates twice since February to the current 3.85% range as inflation slows toward the 2–3% target band.

At the conclusion of its July 8 meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Committee decided on Tuesday morning to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.85%, the lowest level since May 2023, defying market expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut.

The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that it is waiting for “additional information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5% on a sustained basis.”

Gold prices held steady during Monday’s trading session amid a notable rise in the US dollar against most major currencies, as traders monitored developments on the trade front.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with CNBC that the administration will issue a number of trade-related announcements within the next 48 hours. He did not specify which countries would be affected, adding that the coming days would be packed with new trade offers.

For his part, US President Donald Trump warned countries aligning themselves with the BRICS alliance—which he described as opposing American interests—that they will face an additional 10% tariff.

Trump wrote on social media: “Any country aligning with the anti-America policies of BRICS will face an additional 10% tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy.”

Trump has long criticized BRICS, a bloc that includes China, Russia, and India.

The United States had initially set July 9 as the deadline for countries to reach a trade agreement, but US officials now say that tariffs will begin on August 1. Trump stated that he would send letters to countries informing them of the tariff rates in case no agreement is reached.

On Monday, President Donald Trump announced that his administration will impose a 25% tariff on imports from South Korea and Japan starting August 1, as part of a batch of letters to be sent to a number of foreign nations.

The White House also confirmed Monday that President Donald Trump will sign an executive order extending the temporary freeze on the so-called “reciprocal tariffs” until August 1, granting targeted countries an additional three-week grace period to reach trade deals with the United States.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index rose by 0.3% to 97.4 points at 19:51 GMT, recording a high of 97.6 points and a low of 96.8 points.

In terms of market performance, spot gold prices were steady at $3,344.80 per ounce by 19:52 GMT.