The euro fell in European markets on Monday against a basket of major global currencies, deepening its losses for the fourth consecutive day against the U.S. dollar and recording its lowest level in three weeks. The decline comes amid threats from Donald Trump to impose tariffs of around 30% on European products starting this August.

The European Union rejected Trump’s trade threats and decided to extend its suspension of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products until August 1, while continuing to push for a negotiated resolution.

With growing uncertainty surrounding the possibility of a European interest rate cut at this month’s European Central Bank meeting — especially after June’s key inflation data — investors are awaiting further important economic indicators from the eurozone.

The Price

• Euro exchange rate today: The euro fell against the dollar by 0.3% to $1.1654 — its lowest level since June 26 — down from Friday’s closing price of $1.1688. The euro reached a session high of $1.1698.

• On Friday, the euro ended the session down 0.1% against the dollar, marking its third straight daily loss amid Trump’s trade pressure on the EU.

• Last week, the euro lost 0.7%, its first weekly loss in three weeks, as part of a correction and profit-taking move from a four-year high of $1.1830.

Trump's Trade Threats

On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his latest tariff measures in two separate letters to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, both posted on his social media platform “Truth.”

Trump threatened to impose 30% tariffs on the European Union and Mexico — two of the U.S.'s largest trading partners — starting August 1.

In a swift response, the European Union said it would extend its suspension of countermeasures on U.S. tariffs until early August and continue pressing for a negotiated settlement.

U.S. Dollar

The dollar index rose on Monday by 0.25%, extending gains for the third straight session and hitting a three-week high of 98.10 points, reflecting continued strength in the U.S. currency against both major and minor currencies.

Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said: “Financial markets seem increasingly indifferent to President Trump’s tariff threats now, after these warnings have been repeated several times in recent months.”

Beyond tariff headlines, Trump stated on Sunday that it would be “great” if Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell resigned, once again threatening the central bank’s independence as he called for interest rate cuts.

European Interest Rates

• According to Reuters sources, a clear majority at the last European Central Bank meeting favored keeping interest rates unchanged in July, with some calling for a longer pause.

• Money markets currently price in a roughly 30% chance that the ECB will cut rates by 25 basis points in July.

• To reassess those expectations, investors are closely watching upcoming economic data from Europe as well as comments from ECB policymakers.

Ripple's price rose on Friday amid strong demand for cryptocurrencies and as Bitcoin reached new record highs.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced today a 35% tariff on Canada and threatened to raise tariffs on other countries as well.

In a post on Truth Social yesterday, Trump said the tariffs on Canada were a response to its failure to help stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States, warning that he would increase them further if Canada retaliates.

In an interview with NBC, Trump also said he intends to impose broad tariffs ranging from 15% to 20% on other countries — higher than the current 10% rate that investors have become accustomed to.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said he is seeking a diplomatic solution to the tariff dispute with the United States but pledged to respond in kind if the tariffs are implemented on August 1.

Bitcoin

The world’s largest cryptocurrency surged past $118,000 for the first time in history, after trading below $80,000 as recently as April.

The broader crypto market also posted strong gains, with Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) each rising more than 7%.

This new record pushed Bitcoin’s market capitalization above $2.3 trillion, surpassing tech giants like Google (Alphabet) and Meta, and even overtaking silver, though it still remains a fraction of gold’s estimated $22 trillion market cap.

This extraordinary rally began after President Trump declared "Liberation Day" on April 2, disrupting traditional markets and pushing both retail and institutional investors toward alternative assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against major economic uncertainty.

Gadi Chait, Chief Investment Officer at Xapo Bank, told The Independent: “Bitcoin shattered all expectations, shifting from a calm trading range to a full sprint that culminated in a new record.”

He added, “Behind the scenes, institutions are frantically accumulating Bitcoin. What’s remarkable is that this institutional inflow has continued despite the extreme global economic uncertainty — a test that many so-called ‘volatile’ assets have failed.”

The latest surge has fueled strong bullish sentiment. A recent Finder survey of 22 experts showed an average year-end 2025 price prediction for Bitcoin of $145,167.

To reach that level, the price would need to rise another $27,000 in the second half of the year, after climbing roughly $25,000 in the first half.

Kadan Stadelmann, Chief Technology Officer at Komodo and one of the survey participants, said, “We still have at least six months left in this bull cycle. If historical trends hold, I expect the peak in Q1 2026, followed by a bear market.”

Ripple

As for trading, Ripple’s price jumped 13.9% to $2.84 at 20:58 GMT on CoinMarketCap. The cryptocurrency has surged 28.8% over the past seven days, pushing its market cap to approximately $168 billion, making it the third-largest crypto after Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The Canadian dollar fell against most major currencies on Friday following decisions that signaled an escalation in the trade war between the United States and Canada.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced today the imposition of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports and threatened to raise tariffs on other countries as well.

In a post on Truth Social yesterday, Trump said the tariffs on Canada were a response to its failure to cooperate in stopping the flow of fentanyl into the United States, warning that he would raise them further if Canada retaliated.

Government data released today showed that the Canadian economy added 83.1 thousand jobs in June, far exceeding analysts’ expectations of only 0.9 thousand. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9% last month from 7.0% in May, while analysts had expected it to rise to 7.1%.

In trading, the Canadian dollar declined against its U.S. counterpart by 0.2% to 0.7308 at 20:53 GMT.

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar also dropped against the U.S. dollar by 0.2% to 0.6577 at 20:53 GMT.

U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.2% to 97.8 points at 20:29 GMT, after hitting a high of 97.9 and a low of 97.5.

In an interview with NBC, Trump said he intends to impose broad-based tariffs ranging between 15% and 20% on other countries — a rate higher than the current 10% level investors have become accustomed to in recent months.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said he is seeking a diplomatic resolution to the tariff dispute with the United States but pledged to respond in kind if the tariffs are enacted on August 1.

Argentina’s massive shale gas reserves form the foundation for building export capacity through pipelines and LNG terminals — a transformation that could position the second-largest economy in South America as both a regional and global gas powerhouse.

The country holds the necessary resource base, notably the vast unconventional reserves in the Vaca Muerta shale formation in Neuquén Province. However, it must develop the infrastructure to transport gas from production zones to regional pipelines and planned export terminals. Additionally, Argentina must continue the market reforms initiated by business-friendly President Javier Milei to attract foreign investment and move past decades of economic instability and investor skepticism.

As it strives to become an LNG exporter, Argentina will face stiff competition from leading global LNG suppliers who enjoy lower production costs.

According to the latest report by Wood Mackenzie on Argentina’s gas and power markets, the country’s natural gas production could peak at 180 million cubic meters per day (Mmcd) by 2040 in a base-case scenario — potentially rising to 270 Mmcd if all planned LNG export projects are realized.

The unconventional gas fields of Vaca Muerta are central to this significant supply growth.

Javier Toro, Director of Research at Wood Mackenzie, stated: “With Bolivia’s exports expected to cease by the end of this decade, Argentina is strategically positioned to become the region’s leading supplier. At the same time, it has a real opportunity to establish itself as a reliable global LNG exporter.”

Vaca Muerta shale output surges

Oil and gas production from Vaca Muerta has seen a sharp rise in recent months, and Argentina is preparing for the next phase of this resource boom: exports.

Vaca Muerta — Spanish for “dead cow” — is often referred to as “Argentina’s Permian,” though geologically it more closely resembles the Eagle Ford formation in the U.S. The basin is estimated to contain 16 billion barrels of oil and 308 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, making it the second-largest shale gas reserve in the world and the fourth-largest for shale oil.

In Q1 2025, oil output from Vaca Muerta rose 26% year-on-year, while gas production increased 16%, according to Rystad Energy estimates.

Gas export prospects

Argentina is already connected by pipelines to Chile, Uruguay, and Bolivia. Recently, the flow through the Northern Pipeline was reversed, enabling gas exports to Brazil via Bolivia’s existing infrastructure.

Wood Mackenzie sees potential for Argentina to boost pipeline exports by extending the connection from Uruguaiana to Porto Alegre and linking it to Brazil’s integrated transportation system.

Argentina is also advancing several LNG export initiatives. State energy company YPF has signed agreements with Shell and Eni to co-develop the “Argentina LNG” project. This includes gas production from Vaca Muerta blocks, a 580-kilometer pipeline, and a processing and liquefaction facility in Sierra Grande, Río Negro Province, on the Atlantic coast.

The country has already reached a final investment decision (FID) for a floating liquefaction unit with a capacity of up to 2.5 million tonnes per year. It is also considering a second 3.5 million-tonne unit under the “Southern Energy” alliance, which includes Pan American Energy, Pampa, Harbour Energy, YPF, and Golar.

If all proposed projects are completed, Argentina could export 28 million tonnes of LNG per year by 2035, according to Wood Mackenzie.

Infrastructure and cost challenges

Despite its vast reserves and early commitments from global firms, Argentina’s LNG export future remains uncertain. The country needs multibillion-dollar investments in midstream infrastructure to move gas from fields to export terminals.

Wood Mackenzie notes: “To develop LNG projects, Argentina needs dedicated pipelines to liquefaction plants and significant upstream capacity.”

Interest in Vaca Muerta has surged since Javier Milei took office a year and a half ago, but he also halted state financing for infrastructure like pipelines, meaning companies must rely on private capital and incentives such as tax breaks under the new free-market model.

The government estimates that market liberalization efforts will raise energy sector investments to around $15 billion in 2025, up $2.5 billion from previous forecasts.

The recently passed RIGI law (Regime of Incentives for Major Investments) has further drawn investor attention, offering tax exemptions and regulatory facilitation for large-scale projects.

Global energy companies are once again exploring mergers and acquisitions (M\&A) opportunities in Argentina after years of market hesitation.

Still, cost competitiveness in the global LNG market remains a critical factor in determining Argentina’s actual export capacity.